Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6645; (P) 0.6670; (R1) 0.6709; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as it's still struggling to break through 0.6694 resistance decisively. Focus is on whether 0.6546 fibonacci level would provide strong support to bring reversal. On the upside,firm break of 0.6694 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 0.6795). However, sustained break of 0.6546 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.6169 low.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7158). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Sustained break there will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.20; (P) 134.05; (R1) 135.06; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Fall from 137.90 could still extend lower and break of 132.27 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28. Break of 137.90 resistance is needed to confirm resumption of the rally from 127.20, or risk will stay mildly on the downside.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9104; (P) 0.9134; (R1) 0.9173; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first with current recovery. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 0.9439 is probably resuming larger decline from 1.1046. Decisive break of 0.9070 will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.8767. However, break of 0.9219 resistance will turn bias back to the upside, and extend the corrective pattern from 0.9058 with another rising leg.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is should still be in progress with 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474 intact. Rejection by 55 week EMA is also a medium term bearish sign. Break of 0.9058 will resume such decline towards 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, such fall is still as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9439 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2130; (P) 1.2166; (R1) 1.2196; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 1.2445 should have completed with three waves to 1.1801. Above 1.2203 will resume the rise from 1.1801 to retest 1.2445/6 resistance zone next. On the downside, below 1.2045 minor support dampen the bullish view and turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, price action from 1.2445 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low). Resumption is expected as a later stage and firm break of 1.2446 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759. This will remain the favored case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2445 at 1.1645 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0691; (P) 1.0721; (R1) 1.0762; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside and outlook is unchanged. Corrective decline from 1.1032 should have completed at 1.5023, ahead of 1.0482 key support. Break of 1.0803 resistance will bring retest of 1.1032 high next. On the downside, below 1.0649 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. In this case, decline from 1.1032 could resume through 1.0523 to keys structural support at 1.0482.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0482 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) should continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. However, sustained break of 1.0482 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0106, even as a corrective pull back.

After days of market turbulence, Asian session has been relatively calm today. US stocks recovered overnight with a strong rebound in treasury yields, helping to calm market sentiments. Mixed economic data from China did not seem to have any significant impact on the markets.

With the banking crisis slowly fading into the background, focus is expected to shift back to economic data and central bank policies. The Euro is showing signs of firming up ahead of the ECB rate decision on Thursday, but there seems to be a lack of follow-through momentum. While there is some uncertainty, ECB is still expected to hike rates by 50bps. The key will be on the new economic projections and any guidance on the rate path forward.

Dollar, Yen, and Swiss Franc are currently the weakest currencies for the week, while the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Sterling are the strongest. However, the recovery in commodity currencies remains weak, so it's hardly a return to a risk-on environment yet.

Technically, AUD/JPY recovered ahead of 87.00 support. But outlook is unchanged that corrective rise from 87.00 has completed at 93.02. Another decline to retest 87.00 is expected sooner rather than later. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 99.32. However, sustained trading above 4 hour 55 EMA will argue that corrective pattern from 87.00 is extending with another rising leg, and stronger rebound could be seen back to 93.02.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.30%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.26%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.60%. Singapore Strait Times is up 1.24%. Japan 10-yaer JGB yield is up 0.0466 at 0.330. Overnight, DOW rose 1.06%. S&P 500 rose 1.65%. NASDAQ rose 2.14%. 10-year yield rose 0.123 to 3.638.

China posts mixed economic data in Jan-Feb period

China's economic data for the first two months of 2023 showed mixed results, with industrial production growth falling short of expectations but retail sales and fixed asset investment exceeding them.

According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, industrial production grew by 2.4% yoy, below the forecasted 2.6% yoy. Retail sales, on the other hand, rose by 3.5% yoy, slightly above expectations of 3.4% yoy.

Fixed asset investment also exceeded expectations, growing by 5.5% yoy, compared to the forecasted 4.5% yoy. Infrastructure investment saw a rise of 9.0% yoy. However, property investment showed a decline of -5.7% yoy, indicating a slowdown in the real estate sector.

The NBS released a statement that highlighted the challenges facing China's economy. "The external environment is even more complex, inadequate demand remains prominent and the foundation for economic recovery is not solid yet," the statement said.

The economic data for January and February is combined to smooth out the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday, which falls at different times during the two months in different years.

BoJ minutes: Basic stance to continue with current monetary easing

BoJ has reaffirmed its commitment to continuing with its current monetary easing policy, including yield curve control, to achieve the price stability target, according to the minutes of its meeting in January 17-18.

One member noted that there is "still a long way to go to achieve the price stability target", and thus the Bank should continue with the current monetary easing to firmly support the economy.

To encourage firms' efforts with regard to business transformation until sustained wage increases can be expected, the Bank needs to "curb interest rate rises across the entire yield curve" while paying attention to the functioning of bond markets, according to another member.

Another member added that it was "inappropriate to rush to an exit" from the current monetary policy, as overseas economies were currently heading toward slowdowns.

However, one member recognized that "at some point in the future", it will be necessary to examine and assess the balance between the positive effects and side effects of the current monetary easing policy.

The Bank's "basic stance on its future conduct of monetary policy" is to "continue with the current monetary easing -- including the conduct of yield curve control -- and thereby achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner accompanied by wage increases," the minutes read.

Looking ahead

Eurozone will release industrial production in European session. Main focuses, however, are on US retail sales and PPI to be released later in the day. US business inventories, Empire State manufacturing index, NAHB housing index, and Canada housing starts will also be released.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0691; (P) 1.0721; (R1) 1.0762; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside and outlook is unchanged. Corrective decline from 1.1032 should have completed at 1.5023, ahead of 1.0482 key support. Break of 1.0803 resistance will bring retest of 1.1032 high next. On the downside, below 1.0649 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. In this case, decline from 1.1032 could resume through 1.0523 to keys structural support at 1.0482.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0482 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) should continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. However, sustained break of 1.0482 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0106, even as a corrective pull back.

Economic Indicators Update

DXY:

Price is currently lingering near our 1st support level at 103.44, which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. If the price were to reverse from this level, it could potentially push up to our 1st resistance at 104.10, which lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. If the price were to break above our 1st resistance level, it could potentially push up to our 2nd resistance level at 105.60.

Regarding support levels, if the price were to break below our 1st support level, it could drop down to our 2nd support level at 102.80. It’s worth noting that there is a bullish divergence vs the RSI, which suggests a potential reversal from this level to push prices up to our 1st resistance level.

EUR/USD:

Price is currently approaching our 1st resistance level at 1.0776, which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. If the price were to break above this level, it could potentially push up to our 2nd resistance level at 1.0926.

However, it’s worth noting that there is a bearish divergence vs the RSI, which suggests a potential reversal. If the price were to reverse from our 1st resistance level, it could drop down to our 1st support level at 1.0693. If the price were to break below our 1st support level, it could potentially drop further down to our 2nd support level at 1.0525.

GBP/USD:

Price has respected our 1st support level at 1.2136, which is an overlap support level. If the price were to reverse from this level, we could potentially see it push up to our 2nd resistance level at 1.2360.

Regarding support levels, if the price were to break below our 1st support level, it could potentially drop down to our 2nd support level at 1.2045, which is another overlap support level.

USD/CHF:

Price has tested our 1st resistance level at 0.9161, which lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. If the price were to reverse from this level, we could potentially see it drop down to our 1st support level at 0.9063, and if the price were to break below that, it could potentially drop further down to our 2nd support level at 0.8924.

Regarding resistance levels, if the price were to break above our 1st resistance level, it could potentially push up to our 2nd resistance level at 0.9284, which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and is also an overlap resistance level.

USD/JPY:

The price has strongly reversed from our 1st support level at 132.67 and is currently testing our intermediate resistance level at 134.41, which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If the price were to break through this level, it could potentially push up to our 1st resistance level, which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and our 2nd resistance level is at 137.02.

Regarding support levels, there’s a 1st support level at 132.67, which is an overlap support level, and the 2nd support level is at 130.58, with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and overlap support level

AUD/USD:

Price is currently in our 1st support area at 0.6694, which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. It’s worth noting that if the price were to break from the descending trendline, it could push up to our 1st resistance at 0.6779.

However, if the price were to reverse from our 1st support, which is an overlap support, it could drop to the 2nd support level at 0.6565.

NZD/USD:

Price has nicely rejected from our 1st resistance at 0.6304, which is an overlapping resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If the price were to break this level, it could push up to our 2nd resistance at 0.6388, which is an overlapping resistance.

As for support levels, our 1st support is at 0.6205, which is an overlap support, and our 2nd support is at 0.6133, which is another overlap support.

USD/CAD:

Price is approaching our 1st support area at 1.3663, which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If the price were to reverse from this level, we could see it push up to our 1st resistance at 1.3706, which is an overlap resistance. Our 2nd resistance is at 1.3851.

On the other hand, if the price were to break from our 1st support, it could drop to our 2nd support at 1.3566, which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and overlap support.

DJ30:

Price has reversed from our 1st support at 31765. It could potentially push up to our 1st resistance at 32572, which is an overlap resistance along with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. If the price were to pass through, it could push up further to our 2nd resistance at 3303.

Regarding support levels, our 2nd support is at 31492, which is a swing low support.

GER30:

Price is currently at our 1st resistance level at 15241, which is an overlapping resistance along with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. If the price were to break through, it could potentially push up to our 2nd resistance at 15489, along with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Regarding support levels, our 1st support is at 14899, which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If the price were to break below this level, it could drop further down to our 2nd support at 14671, which is an overlap support along with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

BTC/USD:

Price is currently testing our 1st resistance at 25198. If the price were to reverse from this level, it could drop to our 1st support at 23867, which is an overlap support along with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our 2nd support level is 22752, which is also an overlap support along with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

On the other hand, if the price were to break the 1st resistance, it could potentially push up to the 2nd resistance at 26476.

US500

Price has recently been rejected from our 1st resistance level at 3925, which is an overlap resistance along with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. If the price were to break above this level, it could push up to our 2nd resistance at 3970, which is another overlap resistance along with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Regarding the support levels, if the price were to reverse from the 1st resistance level, our 1st support is at 3869, and the 2nd support is at 3794, which is another swing low support.

ETH/USD:

Price has recently reversed from our 1st support at 1679, which is an overlap support level along with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. If the price were to break below this level, it could potentially drop further down to our 2nd support at 1579, which is an overlap support level along with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

WTI/USD:

Price is currently at our 1st resistance level at 72.53, which is an overlap resistance level. If the price were to break above this level, it could potentially push up to our 2nd resistance level at 73.71.

Regarding support levels, our 1st support is at 70.26, and the 2nd support level is at 69.00

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Price is currently lingering between our 1st support and resistance levels. If the price were to reverse from our 1st resistance at 1923, which is an overlapping resistance level, it could drop to our 1st support at 1890, which is an overlap support level along with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. If the selling momentum is strong, the price could drop further down to our 2nd support at 1861, which is another overlap support level along with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

However, if the price were to break above our 1st resistance level, it could potentially push up to our 2nd resistance at 1959, which is a swing-high resistance level.

China's economic data for the first two months of 2023 showed mixed results, with industrial production growth falling short of expectations but retail sales and fixed asset investment exceeding them.

According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, industrial production grew by 2.4% yoy, below the forecasted 2.6% yoy. Retail sales, on the other hand, rose by 3.5% yoy, slightly above expectations of 3.4% yoy.

Fixed asset investment also exceeded expectations, growing by 5.5% yoy, compared to the forecasted 4.5% yoy. Infrastructure investment saw a rise of 9.0% yoy. However, property investment showed a decline of -5.7% yoy, indicating a slowdown in the real estate sector.

The NBS released a statement that highlighted the challenges facing China's economy. "The external environment is even more complex, inadequate demand remains prominent and the foundation for economic recovery is not solid yet," the statement said.

The economic data for January and February is combined to smooth out the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday, which falls at different times during the two months in different years.

BoJ has reaffirmed its commitment to continuing with its current monetary easing policy, including yield curve control, to achieve the price stability target, according to the minutes of its meeting in January 17-18.

One member noted that there is "still a long way to go to achieve the price stability target", and thus the Bank should continue with the current monetary easing to firmly support the economy.

To encourage firms' efforts with regard to business transformation until sustained wage increases can be expected, the Bank needs to "curb interest rate rises across the entire yield curve" while paying attention to the functioning of bond markets, according to another member.

Another member added that it was "inappropriate to rush to an exit" from the current monetary policy, as overseas economies were currently heading toward slowdowns.

However, one member recognized that "at some point in the future", it will be necessary to examine and assess the balance between the positive effects and side effects of the current monetary easing policy.

The Bank's "basic stance on its future conduct of monetary policy" is to "continue with the current monetary easing -- including the conduct of yield curve control -- and thereby achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner accompanied by wage increases," the minutes read.

Full minutes here.

Key Highlights

• Gold price rallied towards $1,915 before the bears appeared.
• A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support near $1,895 on the 4-hours chart.
• EUR/USD and GBP/USD might continue to recover higher.
• The US CPI declined from 6.4% to 6% in Feb 2023.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price started a major increase above the $1,850 resistance against the US Dollar. The price gained momentum after there was a close above the $1,880 level.

The 4-hours chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price even settled above the $1,880 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

Finally, there was a spike above the $1,900 resistance. The price traded as high as $1,914 before a consolidation phase kicked in. On the downside, an initial support is near the $1,895 level.

There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $1,895 on the same chart. The next major support is near the $1,882 level, below which there is a risk of a move towards the $1,875 level.

The next major support is near the $1,865 level, below which gold price might struggle to stay above the $1,850 zone. In the stated case, gold price could slide towards the $1,832 support.

On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $1,915 level. The main resistance is near the $1,920 zone and the, above which the price might rise towards the $1,950 level.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair might soon attempt an upside break and it could even clear the 1.0800 resistance zone.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• US Retail Sales for Feb 2023 (MoM) – Forecast -0.3%, versus +3.0% previous.
• US Producer Price Index for Feb 2023 (MoM) – Forecast +0.3%, versus +0.7% previous.
• US Producer Price Index for Feb 2023 (YoY) – Forecast +5.4%, versus +6.0% previous.