Sample Category Title

Markets

UK Chancellor Reeves addressed the Labour Party conference in Liverpool against the backdrop of crashing polling rates and the looming November 26 Autumn Budget event. Yougov projected last Friday that Labour would only gain 144 seats in the 650-seat parliament compared with their 411 election victory. Reeves warned that harsh global headwinds will force her to make more controversial decisions later this year. The world has changed, citing global instability, trade barriers and borrowing costs. The Chancellor (and PM Starner) confirmed that Labour’s manifesto commitments with regard to tax hikes still stand. That means no increases in key taxes that working people pay (VAT, national insurance and income tax rates). She refused to rule out other forms of tax increases such as adjustments to tax thresholds, indirect taxes and business taxes to help plug a £30bn budget shortfall to balance her core fiscal rules. The chancellor also revealed that she would make the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) only publish one forecast a year rather than two as two full forecasts make it harder to have the one fiscal event per year she promised. Today’s speech didn’t move the needle in UK markets. Gilts follow a global bull flattening trend with UK yields unchanged at the front end of the curve and up to 4 bps lower at the very long end (30-yr). EUR/GBP treads water around 0.8735, holding close to the YtD high at 0.8769.

Bank of Japan board member Noguchi said that various economic indicators for Japan show steady progress in achieving the 2% inflation target. This suggests that the need to adjust the policy rate is increasing more than ever. His words carry quite some weight as the dovish board member dissented against the BoJ’s first two rate hikes this cycle in March and July of last year. The market implied probability of a rate hike at the end of next month (to +0.75%) increases further to 66%. In September, two BoJ members (9-member board) already backed a rate hike proposal. Minutes of that meeting (tomorrow), speeches by deputy governor Uchida (Thursday) and governor Ueda (Friday) and the quarterly Tankan survey (Wednesday) could be pivotal this week in further cementing rate hike bets. The Japanese yen profits today with USD/JPY moving away from the psychologic 150-mark and EUR/JPY calling off a test of the all-time high at 175.43.

News & Views

Belgian inflation decreased by 0.3% M/M in September, but the Y/Y-measure rose from 1.91% from 2.12% due to a sharper monthly decline last year (-0.5% M/M). Core inflation (ex-energy products and unprocessed food) also rose from 2.3% in august to 2.61%. Inflation for services basically held a similar yearly pace (3.47% Y/Y from 3.48%) as was the case for rents prices (3.97% from 3.96%). Inflation for food products (including alcoholic beverages) accelerated from 2.42% Y/Y last month to 3.32% . Food prices also added 0.46 ppts to the overall yearly inflation figure. In a monthly perspective, the main price increases in September concerned clothing (+ 3.1% M/M) as well as travels abroad and city trips (2.4%). However, holiday villages (-12.5%), plane tickets (-14.8%), hotel rooms (-8.3%) , motor fuels (-1.3%), personal care (-1.8%), natural gas (-1.1%) and electricity (-0.7%) had a decreasing effect on the index. The first inflation estimate according to the European harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP flash estimate) amounts to 2.7% in September 2025 (was 2.6% in August).

RBNZ chief economist Conway commented on an update to recommendations from the 2022 policy review. This progress report is released alongside an interim assessment of the recent tightening cycle. Conway states that “the MPC has gained valuable insights into how economic activity, price setting by businesses, and inflation expectations evolve during periods of high inflation and economic volatility”. The RBNZ now has a deeper understanding of supply shocks and structural drivers of inflation. They expanded the use of high-frequency data for more timely and granular monitoring. The RBNZ also developed new tools to estimate neutral interest rates and run scenario analysis. These improvements ensure the MPC is well equipped to navigate future shocks. In evaluating the policy response to 2021-24 above target inflation, a review states that the MPC’s strategy helped reduce inflation from its peak in 2022 and returned it to within the 1 to 3% band by September 2024. This strategy kept inflation expectations near target, but, in hindsight, an earlier or more aggressive tightening might have delivered better outcomes. Regarding communication, improvements can still be made on the interpretation of the forward OCR track.

BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said today that the UK’s labor market continues to loosen, with wage growth normalizing and supporting the disinflation process. He noted that while inflation pressures had been substantial, the Bank’s forecast for a temporary rise in CPI to 4% in September was likely to mark the peak.

Ramsden expressed confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target under current restrictive policy settings, aided by market expectations already factored into the Bank’s forecasts.

He added that the MPC’s “gradual and careful” strategy remains the right approach. Looking ahead, Ramsden said there remains “scope for further removal of policy restraint.”

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said today she remains concerned about inflation, which she described as still too high across headline, core, and especially services. In a CNBC interview, She reminded that the Fed has missed its 2% mandate for over four years, a persistence that continues to weigh heavily on her outlook.

By contrast, Hammack described the labor market as “reasonably healthy” and broadly balanced, reducing the urgency for further cuts. She warned that inflation may not return to 2% until late 2027 or even early 2028.

Balancing the Fed’s dual mandate, Hammack argued the central bank must maintain a "restrictive stance of policy so that we can get inflation back down to our goal”

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of EURCAD. In which, the rally from 02 September 2025 low unfolded as impulse sequence & showed a higher high sequence therefore, called for an extension higher to take place. We knew that the structure in EURCAD should remain supported & extend higher. So, we advised members not to sell the pair & buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

EURCAD 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 9.19.2025

Here’s the 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 9.19.2025 Asia update. In which, the rally to 1.6359 high completed small wave (i) & made a pullback in wave (ii). The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave zigzag correction where small wave a ended at 1.6258 low. Then small bounce to 1.6313 high-ended small wave b. Then started the next leg lower in wave c towards 0.6203- 1.6135 blue box area. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for new highs ideally or for a 3-wave bounce minimum.

EURCAD Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 9.29.2025

This is the latest 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 9.29.2025 London update. In which the pair is showing a strong reaction higher taking place, right after ending the correction within the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the long position at the blue box area. However, a break above 1.6359 high is needed to confirm the next extension higher towards 1.6404- 1.6476 area minimum & avoid double correction lower.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1670; (P) 1.1688; (R1) 1.1719; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. More consolidations could be seen above 1.1644. Further fall is expected as long as 1.1819 resistance holds. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1670) will argue that 1.1917 was already a medium term top. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.1390 support next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0176 (2025 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low). 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916 was already met. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.1390 support holds, and firm break of 1.2000 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.1390 will suggest that rise from 1.0176 has already completed and bring deeper fall to 55 W EMA (now at 1.1231).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3347; (P) 1.3380; (R1) 1.3430; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. More consolidations could be seen above 1.3322. But further decline is expected as long as 1.3535 resistance holds. Break of 1.3322 will resume the fall from 1.3725, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3787, and target 1.3140 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. But strong resistance could be seen from 1.4248 (2021 high) to limit upside. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3155) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7953; (P) 0.7984; (R1) 0.8026; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 0.8013. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.8014) will suggest that rise from 0.7828 is already correcting whole fall from 0.9200. Further rise should the be seen to 0.8170 resistance and possibly above. However, break of 0.7908 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7828 low.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.28; (P) 149.62; (R1) 149.83; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen below 149.95 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 147.45 support holds. Corrective pattern from 150.90 should have completed at 145.47. Above 149.95 will bring retest of 150.90 first. Firm break there will target 151.22 fibonacci level. However, sustained break of 147.45 will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper fall back to 145.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Yen held firm as the strongest performer heading into the US session, supported by mounting speculation that the BoJ is moving closer to a rate hike. Traders seized on a hawkish shift from a known dove on the Policy Board, a sign that internal momentum is building for further normalization.

This shift in tone from the BoJ was partly balanced by a cautious note from the Japanese government. In its September monthly report, the Cabinet Office kept its basic economic assessment unchanged, describing the recovery as “moderate” while highlighting the drag from US trade policies, particularly in the automotive sector. Officials also warned that attention should remain on downside risks linked to external headwinds.

Still, the currency’s next major driver will be global risk sentiment. Heavyweight US releases this week — highlighted by Friday’s non-farm payrolls — will be decisive for both stocks, bonds and currencies. Any data surprise strong enough to sway Fed expectations will inevitably spill over into USD/JPY and broader Yen crosses.

In the upcoming Asian session, attention is shifting to the RBA’s policy decision. The RBA is expected to keep rates on hold at 3.60%, but the outcome carries added weight after August CPI accelerated to 3.0% from 2.8%. While consensus sees a year-end rate of 3.35%, a handful of analysts have delayed their calls for a November cut in light of the firmer inflation print.

Australia’s largest banks are split: ANZ, CBA, and Westpac forecast a 25bps reduction in November, while NAB expects no easing until May. A Reuters poll found more than 80% of respondents still see a cut to 3.35% by year-end, though the number expecting no change has risen since August.

For the day so far, Dollar is the weakest major currency, followed by Swiss Franc and Loonie. Yen sits at the top of the ladder, ahead of Sterling and Aussie, with the Kiwi and Euro trading in the middle of the pack.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.54%. DAX is up 0.02%. CAC is up 0.26%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.038 at 4.72. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.023 at 2.731. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.69%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.89%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.90%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.09%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.013 to 1.647.

Eurozone economic sentiment inches higher to 95.5, jobs outlook softer

Economic sentiment in the Eurozone improved slightly in September, with the Economic Sentiment Indicator rising 0.2 points to 95.5. The broader EU also gained 0.6 points to the same level. Despite the uptick, sentiment remains below the long-term average of 100.

The modest gains were driven by stronger confidence in industry, services, and among consumers, offset partly by weaker retail sentiment and stable conditions in construction.

By contrast, labor market expectations slipped, with the Employment Expectations Indicator dropping -0.9 points in the EU and -1.3 points in the euro area, suggesting hiring momentum is fading.

Country-level trends were uneven. Spain led with a notable 3-point jump, followed by Italy (+0.7), while sentiment weakened in the Netherlands (-0.7) and Germany (-0.4). France (+0.3) and Poland (+0.1) saw little change.

BoJ dove Noguchi signals hawkish shift

BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi, long seen as one of the most dovish voices on the Board, struck a notably hawkish tone today. He argued that Japan is making steady progress toward its 2% inflation goal, citing stronger wage momentum and greater corporate willingness to pass on rising costs.

Noguchi said the “need to adjust the policy interest rate is increasing more than ever,” highlighting that upside risks to prices and growth now outweigh the downside. He noted the labor market is "close to full employment" and the output gap has "almost reached zero", warranting a shift in policy perspective to address rising inflation risks.

His comments mark a significant departure from his usual stance, adding to expectations that the BoJ could deliver another rate hike in the near future. Noguchi did caution that U.S. tariffs remain a source of downside risk, but the overall message suggests growing consensus within the Board for normalization.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.28; (P) 149.62; (R1) 149.83; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen below 149.95 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 147.45 support holds. Corrective pattern from 150.90 should have completed at 145.47. Above 149.95 will bring retest of 150.90 first. Firm break there will target 151.22 fibonacci level. However, sustained break of 147.45 will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper fall back to 145.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi, long seen as one of the most dovish voices on the Board, struck a notably hawkish tone today. He argued that Japan is making steady progress toward its 2% inflation goal, citing stronger wage momentum and greater corporate willingness to pass on rising costs.

Noguchi said the “need to adjust the policy interest rate is increasing more than ever,” highlighting that upside risks to prices and growth now outweigh the downside. He noted the labor market is "close to full employment" and the output gap has "almost reached zero", warranting a shift in policy perspective to address rising inflation risks.

His comments mark a significant departure from his usual stance, adding to expectations that the BoJ could deliver another rate hike in the near future. Noguchi did caution that U.S. tariffs remain a source of downside risk, but the overall message suggests growing consensus within the Board for normalization.