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Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.05; (P) 147.82; (R1) 148.29; More...

USD/JPY's break of 146.65 support suggest that fall from 150.90 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the downside, and break of 146.20 will target 100% projection of 150.90 to 146.20 from 149.12 at 144.42. Also, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 147.15) will argue that whole rebound from 139.87 has completed with three waves up to 150.90. On the upside, however, break of 147.51 minor resistance will mix up the outlook again and turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Yen rebounded broadly today, climbing to the top of the performance leaderboard as traders latched onto speculation that the BoJ may still raise rates as soon as October. A Bloomberg report citing unnamed officials suggested some policymakers favor an earlier move, with reduced concern about growth risks following the U.S.–Japan trade deal. The report noted that the key variable for policymakers is whether the drag from U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy remains within expectations. If so, the bank could argue there is room to resume normalizing rates despite political turbulence in Tokyo.

However, the report relied on anonymous sources and came alongside conflicting headlines. Many analysts argue the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and the ensuing LDP leadership contest are reasons for caution. The BoJ, they contend, is unlikely to risk tightening policy amid such political uncertainty. The central bank also has time on its side. Policymakers can afford to wait until early next year for the next hike, ensuring stability while avoiding the impression of acting in haste. For markets, this means rate expectations are likely to remain volatile as headlines shift.

Elsewhere, Euro weakened broadly, with investors still digesting the ouster of French Prime Minister François Bayrou on Monday. His government’s collapse has heightened perceptions of instability in Paris, though the turmoil alone is unlikely to drive sustained Euro weakness without broader contagion. Still, the picture of France cycling through four prime ministers in two years have weighed on confidence. With President Emmanuel Macron scrambling to find another candidate capable of surviving parliament, Euro has remained defensive.

In the wider FX market, Yen is the day’s strongest performer so far, followed by Aussie and Kiwi. Euro is the weakest, trailed by the Swiss Franc and Loonie. Dollar and Sterling sit mid-pack.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.26%. DAX is down -0.48%. CAC is up 0.31%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.012 at 4.62. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.029 at 2.674. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.42%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.19%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.51%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.25%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.03 to 1.565.

Westpac: Australia consumer optimism elusive, RBA to pause in September

Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index dropped -3.1% mom to 95.4 in September, reversing part of last month’s boost from the RBA’s third rate cut. While sentiment remains modestly above July levels and well above the April tariff-driven low, the index has slipped back into “cautiously pessimistic” territory. Westpac said outright optimism remains "elusive", with households still uneasy about the path ahead despite relief from the cost-of-living crisis.

The RBA is expected to keep its cash rate steady at 3.6% when it meets later this month. Westpac noted recent data on inflation and demand came in "somewhat firmer than expected", reinforcing the case for caution. Policymakers are seen waiting for further confirmation that underlying trends remain benign before resuming cuts.

For now, consumer recovery looks sluggish, and Westpac expects "further easing will likely be needed" to sustain momentum. It forecasts another 25bp cut in November and two additional moves in 2026, underscoring the gradual path ahead for both sentiment and policy.

Australia NAB business survey: Confidence falls, costs ease, capacity still tight

Australia’s NAB Business Confidence index slipped from 8 to 4 in August, but conditions showed improvement, rising from 5 to 7. Trading remained steady at 12, while profitability rose from 2 to 4 and employment from 2 to 5. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld said the results support the view that “the outlook for businesses continues to improve,” with both confidence and conditions now near long-run averages.

Capacity utilisation rose to 83.1% from 82.5%, staying two percentage points above its long-run norm. Capital expenditure intentions also improved, climbing from 8 to 10. Together, these suggest firms are still operating at high levels of resource use despite broader uncertainties.

At the same time, cost pressures eased further. Purchase cost growth slowed from 1.3% to 1.1%, its lowest since 2021, while labour costs moderated to from 1.9% 1.5% and product price growth dipped to from 0.8% 0.6%. The survey points to an environment of resilient business activity and capacity tightness, but with inflation pressures continuing to recede.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.05; (P) 147.82; (R1) 148.29; More...

EUR/JPY's break of 146.65 support suggest that fall from 150.90 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the downside, and break of 146.20 will target 100% projection of 150.90 to 146.20 from 149.12 at 144.42. Also, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 147.15) will argue that whole rebound from 139.87 has completed with three waves up to 150.90. On the upside, however, break of 147.51 minor resistance will mix up the outlook again and turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Gold rose to new record high ($3659) in early Tuesday’s trading, after strong acceleration on Monday (up 1.5%) which resulted in break and close above psychological $3600 barrier.

The latest economic data from the US showed that labor market continues to weaken (weakness further accelerated in August) that adds to strong expectations for Fed rate cut in the policy meeting next week.

Growing uncertainty over political crisis in the US and the latest negative developments in France after the government collapsed, as well as fragile political situation in the UK were the main political factors.

Worsening geopolitical situation on intensifying clashed in Ukraine and the Middle East and the latest crisis in Caribbean region (Venezuela) as well as darkening economic outlook, particularly in Europe, were also behind the latest rally into safety.

Technical pictures remain firmly bullish but overbought conditions on daily chart (although RSI and Stochastic continue to head north) warn that bulls may start losing traction.

Consolidation and shallow dips would be likely scenario, as bullish sentiment remains strong in current environment.

Broken $3600 level reverted to solid support which should ideally contain dips and confirm positioning for fresh push towards targets at $3690/$3700) Fibo projection / round-figure).

Res: 3668; 3690; 3700; 3434.
Sup: 3628; 3600; 3577; 3540.

The precious yellow metal has staged the expected bullish breakout above its former all-time high of US$3,500 printed on 22 April 2025. Gold (XAU/USD) rallied by 5.3% to hit a current fresh intraday record high of US$3,655 at the time of writing.

Lower opportunity costs reinforced the current bullish acceleration phase of Gold
10-year US Treasury real yield is extending its decline

Fig. 1: 10-YR US Treasury real yield major trend with Gold (XAU/USD) as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView).

Gold (XAU/USD), as a non-interest-bearing asset, tends to benefit in lower-rate environments. A decline in interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby supporting stronger demand.

This dynamic can reinforce bullish momentum, potentially creating a positive feedback loop that drives further price appreciation.

Since Fed Chair Powell’s dovish speech at Jackson Hole on 22 August, the 10-year US Treasury real yield (stripping out 10-year inflation expectations derived from the 10-year US Treasury inflation-protected bond) has declined by 19 basis points (bps) to a current level of 1.66% from 1.85% (see Fig. 1).

Let’s now examine Gold (XAU/USD)’s latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch.

Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Maintain bullish bias with a key short-term pivotal support at US$3,600 for Gold (XAU/USD). Minor bullish impulsive up move sequence is likely in progress, and a clearance above US$3,670 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at US$3,697 and US$3,725 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).

Key elements

• The current price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) in place since the 29 August 2025 low of US$3,404, are classified as a bullish acceleration movement depicted by a steeper minor ascending channel.
• The lower boundary of the steeper minor ascending channel confluences closely with the US$3,500 key short-term pivotal support.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to find support at its parallel ascending support after it exited from its overbought zone in today’s Asia session (9 September).

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

A break below the US$3,600 key short-term support on Gold (XAU/USD) invalidates the bullish tone to trigger a deeper minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at US$3,561 and US$3,536.

The Australian dollar continues to propel higher. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6618, up 0.40% on the day. The Aussie has shot up 1.5% since Thursday and is trading at six-week highs.

Australian consumer, business confidence slide

Australia's consumer and business confidence have taken a hit, pointing to pessimism over the economic outlook. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.1% m/m in September, after a strong 5.7% gain in August. Westpac said that the index is back in "cautiously pessimistic" territory.

Consumers remain uneasy over high interest rates, as the Reserve Bank has been slow to lower rates. The Westpac survey found that consumers are more concerned about unemployment and less likely to purchase a major household item.

The NAB Business Confidence Index also headed lower, falling in August to 4 points, down from 8 in July. This marked a three-month low. Still, business conditions showed improvement and forward orders moved higher.

Will the RBA lower rates?

The Reserve Bank of Australia is coming off a quarter-point rate cut and meets next on September 30. The money markets don't expect a cut in September, as GDP rose in Q2 to 1.8% from 1.4% and core inflation jumped to 2.7% in July, up from 2.1%. A stronger economy and higher inflation will make it more difficult for the RBA to lower rates.

We could see a rate cut in November and further easing early in the new year. Much will depend on the direction of inflation, the strength of the labor market, and the health of the Chinese economy.

In the US, the Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a rate hike next week for the first time since December 2024. The weak nonfarm payrolls report has raised the likelihood of a half-point cut to 12%, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 88%, according to CME's FedWatch.

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6612. Next, there is resistance at 0.6632
• 0.6579 and 0.6559 are providing support

AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 9, 2025

Today’s XAU/USD chart shows that gold continues to set records in September. The price has risen above $3,650 per ounce for the first time in history – one of the main drivers being expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday, 17 September.

Easier monetary policy is generally seen as boosting gold’s appeal – this has pushed XAU/USD nearly 6% higher since the start of September. However, the chart highlights three reasons why further upside may be limited.

Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart

1. Long-term channel:

Over the course of 2025, gold price movements have formed an ascending channel (shown in blue), and today XAU/USD is trading close to its median line. This is where supply and demand typically balance out. Buyers may consider the post-September rally overstretched, while sellers could view the all-time high as an opportunity to take profits.

2. Rectangle pattern target reached:

The range between $3,250 and $3,440 that developed mid-year can be interpreted as a rectangle pattern. Following the bullish breakout, the implied target of $3,630 has already been achieved.

3. RSI signals risk:

The RSI indicator is close to forming a bearish divergence.

Given the steep angle of the orange support line, a correction – for example, towards the psychological level of $3,550 – might occur.

In summary, gold’s upward momentum may start to slow. At the same time, given the market’s inertia, traders may have little reason to expect a decisive shift away from bullish dominance. Still, next Wednesday could bring surprises.

For expert projections, see the article: Analytical Gold Price Forecasts for 2025, 2026, 2027, and Beyond.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The EUR/USD pair advanced for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, climbing towards 1.1772 USD. Growing concerns about a cooling US labour market are reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, weighing on the dollar.

Investors are particularly focused on the upcoming revised employment data for the period from April 2024 to March 2025. Estimates suggest a possible downward revision of up to 800,000 jobs, which could indicate that the Fed is falling short of its full employment mandate – a key factor in its policy decisions.

Market attention is also turning to two key inflation releases this week: the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday.

Interest rate futures currently price in an 89% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at next week’s Fed meeting. Some participants are even pricing in the possibility of a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has extended its upward move towards 1.1810 USD. A decisive break above this resistance could signal a continuation of the uptrend. Alternatively, a rejection at this level may lead to a corrective pullback, retesting the former resistance – now acting as support around 1.1720–1.1740 USD. The MACD indicator supports this outlook: both the histogram and signal line remain above zero and are rising, suggesting bullish momentum. The primary scenario favours further gains toward 1.1810 USD, followed by 1.1870 USD, though minor corrections may occur along the way.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is testing resistance and showing signs of short-term consolidation. A break above 1.1772 USD would likely confirm a continuation of the upward move. The Stochastic oscillator is testing the 50 level, indicating potential for a brief correction before the next leg higher. The near-term upside target remains 1.1810 USD.

Conclusion

 The euro remains well-supported against the dollar as markets anticipate softer US labour data and key inflation prints this week. A confirmation of weaker employment figures or subdued inflation could further solidify expectations for Fed easing, likely propelling EUR/USD toward higher resistance levels. Technically, the pair retains bullish momentum, though a near-term correction remains possible.

• AUD/USD bulls resurface, test long-term resistance.
• Short-term risk titled to the upside.
• Buyers need a close above 0.6600.

AUD/USD drifted higher following last Friday’s downbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls, exiting a break consolidation pause to stretch directly to the 0.6600 level, where July’s bullish attempt had previously stalled. Notably, a long-term resistance trendline drawn from the 2021 peak is now challenging the bulls, raising doubts about whether upside momentum can be sustained.

Encouragingly though, the post-NFP breakout appears to have confirmed a bullish double-bottom pattern above the 0.6548 region. With technical indicators maintaining a positive trajectory, the pair has scope for further gains. However, it is worth noting that the stochastic oscillator is hovering near the overbought 80 level, implying that bullish momentum may soon run out of steam.

If the price clears the 0.6600 barrier, the next target could be the 2025 resistance line at 0.6685, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior downleg at 0.6720. Additional advances from there may open the way towards the 0.6800 handle and then to the 2024 ceiling of 0.6900–0.6940.

On the flip side, a reversal below the 0.6545 zone - and more importantly beneath the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) around 0.6515 - would shift the focus back to the double bottom area of 0.6415. The 200-day SMA at 0.6388 could then come into play before sellers aim for the 0.6300 region.

Overall, AUDUSD is looking promising in the short-term picture as analysts are eagerly waiting for the US CPI and PPI inflation indices, though a confirmation above 0.6600 is still needed to activate fresh buying orders.

The EUR/USD has formed the expected bullish breakout above the former medium-term descending trendline resistance, which was in place from the 1 July 2025 high, and rallied by 0.8% to print an intraday high of 1.1778 on Tuesday, 9 September, during the Asia session at the time of writing.

After last Friday's, 5 September, weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data print for August, this week’s key risk events that are likely to trigger a significant volatile movement in the EUR/USD will be the ECB monetary policy decision cum ECB President Lagarde’s press conference, and the release of the US core CPI inflation rate for August, both of them taking place around the same time on Thursday, 11 September between 12.15 pm to 12.45 pm GMT.

ECB is likely to signal the end of its interest rate cut cycle

Fig. 1: The Eurozone/US implied policy interest rate curve spread with EUR/USD as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave its deposit facility rate unchanged at 2% for the second consecutive policy meeting this Thursday.

Latest data from monthly implied future policy rate curves, derived from short-term interest rate futures for both the Eurozone and the US, suggest a high probability that the ECB has reached the end of its current rate-cut cycle.

The Eurozone/US implied policy interest rate curve spread has inched higher to -1.97% in October 2025, from -2.33% in September 2025, and rose steadily in the next few months to -1.62% by January 2026. Also, the curve spread has shifted upwards from three months ago (see Fig. 1).

A pause in the ECB’s rate-cut cycle, combined with expectations of an imminent Fed dovish pivot, suggests the euro is likely to continue appreciating against the greenback in the medium term.

Let’s now examine the latest technical factors on the EUR/USD to determine the next potential short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and its key levels to watch ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy decision and the release of the US core CPI inflation data.

Fig. 2: EUR/USD minor trend as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

Maintain bullish bias with key short-term pivotal support at 1.1700 for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 1.1830 and 1.1890/1.1910 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster and the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 1 August 2025 low).

Key elements

• The price action of the EUR/USD has reintegrated above its 20-day moving average since last Friday, 5 September, which supports the ongoing minor bullish impulsive up move sequence.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator has not displayed a bearish divergence condition at its overbought zone, suggesting that the short-term bullish momentum remains intact.
• The yield spread between the 2-year German Bund and the US Treasury note has continued to narrow further after its bullish breakout on Thursday, 28 August. It narrowed to a current level of -1.57% from -1.68% on last Wednesday, 3 September. This development indicates a relative decline in the yield attractiveness of the 2-year US Treasury versus its German counterpart, which in turn exerts downside pressure on the US dollar against the euro.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

Failure to hold at the 1.1700 short-term key support negates the bullish tone on the EUR/USD to open scope for another round of minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 1.1665 (also the 20-day moving average).

A break below 1.1665 may trigger a deeper slide towards 1.1617 next.

As the US Dollar Index (DXY) chart shows, the value of the USD against a basket of other currencies has fallen below 97.30 – its lowest level since late July.

The reasons lie in market sentiment ahead of major data releases:

→ On Wednesday at 15:30 GMT+3, Producer Price Index (PPI) figures will be published; a month ago they came in extremely high.

→ On Thursday at 15:30 GMT+3, Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are due.

These releases are particularly significant as next week the Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on interest rates – a 25-basis-point cut is widely expected.

Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart

On 18 August, we identified a descending channel (shown in red) based on a sequence of lower highs and lower lows → it remains valid.

In addition, our base scenario suggested that the index might test one of the quartile lines (QL and/or QH) dividing the channel → indeed, since then the QH line has been tested several times (red arrow), convincingly acting as resistance.

What Next?

Bearish case:

→ Lower highs and lows throughout the second half of August indicate that sellers are in control of the DXY market.

→ The black arrow marks bearish momentum that broke through support at 98.05 last week.

→ The drop was sharp (a sign of imbalance in favour of sellers), and yesterday the 98.05 level acted as resistance.

Bullish case:

→ The DXY has dropped into the median zone, where supply and demand often balance. Buyers may step in, viewing current levels as attractive for entry.

→ The RSI may potentially form a bullish divergence.

→ The latest candle on the right shows a long lower wick (a bullish pin bar pattern), underlining buyers’ determination.

Given the above, we could expect the DXY to hover around the median area. However, the upcoming US inflation reports could trigger volatility across financial markets. A test of support at 97.15 could occur.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.