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Closing at $45,711, up +0.43%, the Dow Jones 30 has renewed recent highs in today’s session, breaking above previously held consolidation at around $45,642.

Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Key takeaways from today’s session

• Up around 7.00% year-to-date, recent developments suggesting the Fed will cut in their upcoming decision are benefiting US equity pricing
• While interest rate cuts stand to benefit Dow Jones pricing, weak jobs data and a potential for infamous ‘stagflation’ could limit upside in the medium term

Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Interest rate cut predictions boost Dow Jones pricing

Although playing second fiddle to the tech-dominant Nasdaq-100 for much of 2025, the Dow Jones remains around ~7.83% year-to-date, even with zero interest rate cuts, which, on paper, would be negative for index pricing.

As we all know by now, this could be about to change; most predict that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in their upcoming decision, while others are even expecting a cut of 50 bps in response to poor US labour data.

CME FedWatch, 08/09/2025

While the latter remains unlikely compared to a more tame approach, what is more certain is that a Fed rate cut is undeniably positive for the Dow Jones, with the benefit of holding dollars instead of investing set to be lowered for the first time in 2025.

It should be noted that despite the Fed's choice of tight monetary policy, the Dow Jones has performed fairly well this year, all things considered. While we can expect some short-term upside from expectations of rate cuts, the proof in the metaphorical pudding will be how data reacts to a change in interest rates, especially regarding inflation and labour data

Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Stagflation fears and poor labour data cast doubt over upside

With poor labour data having virtually cemented the chances of an interest rate cut next week, markets are keenly watching upcoming US inflation data releases to understand whether fears of ‘stagflation’ are justified:

• Core Producer Price Index (MoM) (Aug), Wednesday, September 10th, 08:30 ET
• Core Producer Price Index (YoY) (Aug), Wednesday, September 10th, 08:30 ET
• Producer Price Index (MoM) (Aug), Wednesday, September 10th, 08:30 ET
• Producer Price Index (YoY) (Aug), Wednesday, September 10th, 08:30 ET
• Core Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Aug), Thursday, September 11th, 08:30 ET
• Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug), Thursday, September 11th, 08:30 ET
• Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Aug), Thursday, September 11th, 08:30 ET
• Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug), Thursday, September 11th, 08:30 ET

It’s important to remember that, even if interest rates are to be cut, sentiment and general confidence in the US economy will be the most significant determining factor in equity performance in the near future.

As such, labour and inflation data remain as crucial as ever. When considering the Fed’s dual mandate, here are a couple possible outcomes in the next few months:

1. Lower rates boost jobs growth while inflation starts to fall

If a decision to cut rates is made, and the labour market responds well, while inflation starts to fall, we can consider this the best possible outcome. Naturally, this would substantially boost belief in the US economy, which would be US equity positive

2. Lower rates fail to promote jobs growth, while inflation remains stubborn

If the Federal Reserve decides to cut rates and the labour market responds poorly while inflation proves stubborn, this would be a very difficult position to maintain. While further rate cuts would potentially help the labour market, maintaining or even hiking rates would better control inflation, making monetary policy decisions difficult. In this scenario, we can expect higher levels of market uncertainty, which would be generally US equity negative

Dow Jones 30 (US30USD), OANDA, TradingView, 09/09/2025

EURNZD: ⬇️ Sell

• EURNZD broke daily up channel
• Likely to fall to support level 1.9660

EURNZD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance area between the round resistance level 2.0000 (former powerful resistance from April) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance area started active short-term impulse wave c, which then broke the daily up channel from July.

EURNZD currency pair can be expected to fall toward the next support level 1.9660 (former resistance from July and the start of August).

Nasdaq-100: ⬆️ Buy

• Nasdaq-100 reversed from the support area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 24500.00

Nasdaq-100 index recently reversed up from the support area between the pivotal support level 23000.00 (which has been reversing the price from July), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June.

The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer – which started the active impulse wave iii.

Given the clear daily uptrend, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 24000.00 (top of wave 3), the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 24500.00.

Markets

Most markets were mired in technical trading today. Core bonds, at least up until now, are taking a breather after soft US labour market data that last week supported bets for accelerated Fed easing and a further easing of (global) financial conditions. Markets usually take a forward looking approach, mostly ignoring statistical data revisions. For once, this might be different with the BLS benchmark payrolls revision spanning the period April 2024-March 2025 to be published later today. With markets expecting in a downward revision of potentially 700k or more, the report in some way might profoundly ‘rewrite recent US economic history’, with equally important consequences for the Fed’s assessment. After the recent bond market rally and with money markets already discounting a sub 3% Fed policy rate, US yield markets today are shifting to a wait-and-see modus ahead of the BLS revision. US yields add between 1.5 bp (2-y) and 2.5 bps (30-y). US price data tomorrow (PPI) and on Thursday (CPI) maybe also cause some caution. Questions remains how much weight inflation still gets in both markets’ and the Fed’s assessment. With the Fed policy rate still in restrictive territory, we continue to see the risk for faster Fed easing in case of weak (labour) data. Later today, the US Treasury will sell $58 of 3-y notes. Interesting to see investor appetite after the recent rally and given higher yield levels for short-term US T-bills. Also little news on this side of the Atlantic. The German curve corrects sightly on recent flattening move with yields rising between 1.2 bps (2-y) and 3.0 bps (30-y). The (unsurprising) fall of the Bayrou government in France and President Macron restarting its exercise to find a new Prime Minister, is holding the French-German 10-y spread at a fragile ‘equilibrium’ near 80 bps. Both US equities (S&P 500 unchanged, EuroStoxx 50 -0.2%) are going nowhere. Oil jumps on the headlines of an Israeli strike against senior Hamas leadership in Doha (Brent $ 67 p/b).

On FX markets, the dollar took a weak start in Europe this morning, but reversed initial losses later in the session. DXY trades marginally higher at 97.55. EUR/USD came within reach of the 1.1789 level (24 July top and finally hurdle ahead of the 1.1829 YTD top). However, a real test/break didn’t occur yet. A combination of USD-rebound and euro-softness currently brings EUR/USD back to the 1.174 area. The yen slightly outperforms both the dollar and the euro on headlines of a BOJ still considering a rate hike this year (USD/JPY 146.8; EUR/JPY 172.35).

News & Views

Hungarian inflation figures printed exactly in line with consensus for the month of August. There was no price growth on average on a monthly basis with the annual figure stabilizing at 4.3%, above the central bank’s 3% inflation target. A separate analysis by the MNB shows core inflation excluding processed food dipping below 4% (3.9% Y/Y) for the first time since August 2021. Its sticky price inflation gauge was unchanged at 4.8% Y/Y Monthly data showed food and energy prices unchanged. The highest price rise of 0.6% was measured for alcoholic beverages and tobacco. Service prices rose by 0.5% on average and those of durable consumer goods by 0.4% M/M. In annual terms, Hungarian food prices rose by 5.9% with energy prices increasing by 11%. Services became 5.4% more expensive while consumer durable prices were up by 2.4%. Today’s data suggest that the MNB will stick with its stead, hawkish, monetary course for the foreseeable future. The Hungarian forint didn’t respond to the data and holds its ground near strongest HUF-levels since the summer of last year (EUR/HUF 393).

People familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that the Bank of Japan is of the view that it may be possible to raise the benchmark interest rate again this year regardless of domestic political instability, as economic conditions have developed in line with expectations. The US-Japan trade deal has also removed a key source of uncertainty. While an unchanged decision will be the outcome at the September central meeting, odds for a 25 bps rate hike to 0.75% in October (meeting with new quarterly forecasts) surged from 44% to 64%. Earlier today, Reuters reported that the BoJ is highly likely to trim purchases of 10- to 25-yr Japanese government bonds in its Q4 plan. The Japanese yen initially gained ground on the rate hike rumours with USD/JPY slipping from 147.30 to 146.30 before returning towards 146.80.

The NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points to 100.8 in August, coming in right in line with market expectations. As confidence improved, uncertainty pulled back, falling 4 points to a still elevated reading of 93.

Four out of ten subcomponents improved on the month, four decreased, and two remained unchanged. The largest gains were in expectations about higher real sales (up 6 points to 12%), earnings trends (up 3 points to -19%), and current inventory being too low (up 3 points to 0%). The declines among key subcomponents were more muted in comparison.

The net share of businesses planning to increase employment rose 1 point for the third month in a row to 15%, but the share of firms with unfilled job openings continued to trend lower (down 1 point to 32%). Quality of labor concerns remained unchanged at an elevated level, with 21% of business owners identifying this as their top business problem.

The share of firms reporting "few or no qualified workers for job openings" fell 5 points to 43% – aside from the start of the pandemic, this is the lowest level since early 2016.

Inflation metrics were muted. The share of businesses 'raising' average selling prices fell 3 points to 21%, while the share of those 'planning’ to raise average selling prices ahead 2 points to 28% – both measures remain well above their historical averages. Meanwhile, inflation concerns held steady at 11% for the third month in a row – lower than the 20-25% in the 2023-24 period, but still elevated compared to historical norms.

Key Implications

Small business optimism improved modestly in August, extending the turnaround in the confidence measure that began back in April. Among the key developments in today's report is the fact that, alongside some normalization in inflation-related metrics, businesses have been feeling more upbeat about 'real sales' in the months ahead.

Following a period of job cuts at small firms (June to August), the share of businesses planning to increase employment in the months ahead has also trended moderately higher. While 'quality of labor' remains the top concern, small businesses appear to have plenty of applicants for their job openings. The not so good news is that these openings continue to trend lower, which speaks to a more moderate pace of job creation ahead. Overall, with the Fed putting more emphasis on labor market concerns recently, this data leans in favor of a rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting.

In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of CADJPY Daily Elliott wave Charts that we presented to our members. In which, the decline from 7.10.2024 high took place in a double three corrective sequence and showed a lower sequence calling for more downside to happen. Therefore, our members knew that selling the bounces in the direction of the right side tag remained the preferred path. We will explain the Elliott wave structure & selling opportunity our members took below:

CADJPY Daily Elliott Wave Chart From 7.19.2025

CADJPY Daily Elliott Wave Chart from 7.19.2025 Weekend update. In which the pair is showing 5 swings lower low sequence supporting 6th bounce to fail for another leg lower to complete 7 swings corrective sequence from the peak. Whereas the decline to 101.26 low ended wave (A) of ((Y)). Up from there, the pair made a bounce towards the blue box area within wave (B). The internals of that bounce unfolded as zigzag structure where wave A ended at 106.25 high. Wave B pullback ended at 103.01 low. And wave C managed to reach the blue box area. From there, sellers were expected to appear looking for further downside or a minimum 3-wave reaction lower.

CADJPY Latest Daily Elliott Wave Chart From 9.06.2025

This is the latest Daily view from the 9.06.2025 Weekend update. In which the pair is showing a reaction lower taking place from the blue box area. Allowing shorts to get into a risk-free position shortly after taking the position. However, a break below 101.26 low is needed to confirm the next extension lower & avoid double correction lower.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1656; (P) 1.1708; (R1) 1.1771; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for retesting 1.1829 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 1.1916 projection level. On the downside, below 1.1702 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.1607 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3499; (P) 1.3528; (R1) 1.3574; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 1.3594 resistance will resume the rally from 1.3140 and target a retest on 1.3787 high. On the downside, below 1.3480 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3332 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3132) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7908; (P) 0.7952; (R1) 0.7976; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside and deeper fall should be seen to retest 0.7871 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.8475 to 0.7871 from 0.8170 at 0.7797. On the upside, above 0.7984 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.8071 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.