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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7934; (P) 0.7958; (R1) 0.7999; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen above 0.7914 temporary low. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.8071 resistance holds. Below 0.7914 will bring retest of 0.7871 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.8475 to 0.7871 from 0.8170 at 0.7797.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Dollar dipped briefly in early American session while U.S. futures rebounded after producer price data showed cost pressures easing modestly. The report emboldened bets on further Fed easing, with odds of a 50bps cut next week edging up to 10% and expectations for a back-to-back October move climbing back toward 80%.

Still, traders appeared reluctant to commit heavily ahead of Thursday’s CPI release. The inflation print will be decisive for the September FOMC outcome and the broader policy path. For now, the market is content to price in a dovish tilt without taking on larger risk positions.

Judging from today’s price action, however, Dollar looks vulnerable. Any signs of softer-than-expected inflation could accelerate selling, leaving the greenback under renewed pressure across major pairs. The CPI report could therefore act as a tipping point for markets already primed for easing.

Overall in the currency markets today, Aussie led gains, boosted by optimism that Fed easing will give China’s PBoC room to cut rates and stimulate its sluggish economy. Kiwi followed closely, with Sterling also firmer, reflecting a broader risk-on tone.

On the weaker side, Loonie was the worst performer, trailed by Euro and Swiss Franc. The common currency’s attention is fixed on Thursday’s ECB decision, where policymakers are expected to stand pat. Any signal of a prolonged pause could give Euro some breathing space. Dollar and Yen traded mixed in the middle of the pack.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.21%. DAX is up 0.17%. CAC is up 0.74%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.016 at 4.64. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.01 at 2.67. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.87%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.01%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.13%. Singapore Strait Times rose 1.14%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.003 to 1.568.

U.S. PPI falls -0.1% mom in August, annual rate cools to 2.6% yoy

U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, with PPI slipping -0.1% mom versus expectations of a 0.3% mom gain. The decline was driven by a -0.2% mom drop in final demand services, while goods prices edged higher by 0.1% mom.

On a year-over-year basis, PPI slowed sharply to 2.6% yoy from yoy 3.3% in July, undershooting forecasts of 3.3% yoy and signaling easing price pressures at the factory gate. The slowdown will be welcomed by markets seeking evidence that inflationary pressures are moderating.

However, underlying measures stayed firmer. Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, rose 0.3% mom, a fourth straight month of increase, leaving the annual rate at 2.8% yoy — the fastest since March.

China CPI falls -0.4% yoy, core inflation hits 2-1/2 year high

China’s consumer prices slipped deeper into deflation in August, with CPI down -0.4% yoy after July’s flat reading, worse than expectations of -0.2% yoy and the weakest in six months. Food prices were the main drag, falling -4.3% yoy versus -1.6% yoy previously. On a monthly basis, CPI was unchanged, undershooting forecasts for a small 0.1% mom rise.

At the same time, core inflation showed signs of life, rising 0.9% yoy in August compared with 0.8% yoy in July — the fastest pace in two and a half years. The pickup suggests underlying demand in services and other non-food sectors is holding up better than headline numbers imply, even as consumers face falling food costs.

Producer prices continued to contract, though at a slower pace. PPI dropped -2.9% yoy, in line with expectations and an improvement from -3.6% yoy in July. The figures highlight China’s ongoing struggle with persistent factory-gate deflation, which has now lasted nearly three years.

Aussie Strength Builds in Crosses as China CPI Opens Door to Stimulus

Australian Dollar jumped further today, particularly in cross rates, as risk appetite in China improved. The move was fueled by gains in Chinese equities after inflation data suggested room for further stimulus, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbing to a four-year high.

The -0.4% yoy decline in China's highlighted weak domestic demand and strengthened the case for the PBoC to cut borrowing costs. Producer prices also stayed in deflation, highlighting the pressures on manufacturers. More importantly, the Fed’s shift toward easing to reduce pressure on Yuan exchange rate, giving the PBoC greater latitude to stimulate without sparking destabilizing outflows.

Technically, Hong Kong’s HSI remains in a steady uptrend, with D MACD showing signs of momentum returning. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 25013.26 support holds. Current up trend should be on track to 161.8% projection of 14597.31 to 22770.85 from 14794.16 at 27905.69, which is close to 28000 psychological level.

AUD/JPY is now pressing 97.41 key resistance. Further rise is expected as long as 96.29 support holds. Sustained trading above 97.41 will pave the way to 38.2% projection of 86.03 to 97.41 from 94.38 at 98.72, and then 61.8% projection at 101.41.

AUD/CAD's rally continues today and broke through 0.9218 structural resistance. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 0.8440 to 0.9041 from 0.8902 at 0.9273.

GBP/AUD also edges lower today and near term outlook remains bearish for 61.8% projection of 2.1643 to 2.0478 from 2.1003 at 2.0283 next.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7934; (P) 0.7958; (R1) 0.7999; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen above 0.7914 temporary low. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.8071 resistance holds. Below 0.7914 will bring retest of 0.7871 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.8475 to 0.7871 from 0.8170 at 0.7797.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

USDJPY regained traction on Wednesday, after spiking to the lowest in nearly one month on Tuesday.

Strong downside rejection formed a bear trap pattern (under daily cloud base), as well as Hammer candle (Tuesday), adding to developing positive signals.

Strong resistances at 147.60 zone (daily cloud top / converged 10/20 DMA’s) are under pressure, with sustained break here to strengthen near-term structure for fresh recovery towards targets at 148.05/46 (Fibo) and key barrier at 148.70 (200DMA).

Bullish near-term bias expected while the price holds above 55DMA (147.18), but caution is required as daily studies are bearishly aligned (daily RSI below 50 / 14-d momentum in negative territory).

Thursday’s release of US August inflation report will be in focus for the final signals ahead of FOMC policy meeting next week.

Res: 147.72; 148.05 148.46; 148.70.
Sup: 147.39; 147.18;146.70; 146.30.

U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, with PPI slipping -0.1% mom versus expectations of a 0.3% mom gain. The decline was driven by a -0.2% mom drop in final demand services, while goods prices edged higher by 0.1% mom.

On a year-over-year basis, PPI slowed sharply to 2.6% yoy from yoy 3.3% in July, undershooting forecasts of 3.3% yoy and signaling easing price pressures at the factory gate. The slowdown will be welcomed by markets seeking evidence that inflationary pressures are moderating.

However, underlying measures stayed firmer. Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, rose 0.3% mom, a fourth straight month of increase, leaving the annual rate at 2.8% yoy — the fastest since March.

Full US PPI release here.

Australian Dollar jumped further today, particularly in cross rates, as risk appetite in China improved. The move was fueled by gains in Chinese equities after inflation data suggested room for further stimulus, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbing to a four-year high.

The -0.4% yoy decline in China's highlighted weak domestic demand and strengthened the case for the PBoC to cut borrowing costs. Producer prices also stayed in deflation, highlighting the pressures on manufacturers. More importantly, the Fed’s shift toward easing to reduce pressure on Yuan exchange rate, giving the PBoC greater latitude to stimulate without sparking destabilizing outflows.

Technically, Hong Kong’s HSI remains in a steady uptrend, with D MACD showing signs of momentum returning. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 25013.26 support holds. Current up trend should be on track to 161.8% projection of 14597.31 to 22770.85 from 14794.16 at 27905.69, which is close to 28000 psychological level.

AUD/JPY is now pressing 97.41 key resistance. Further rise is expected as long as 96.29 support holds. Sustained trading above 97.41 will pave the way to 38.2% projection of 86.03 to 97.41 from 94.38 at 98.72, and then 61.8% projection at 101.41.

AUD/CAD's rally continues today and broke through 0.9218 structural resistance. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 0.8440 to 0.9041 from 0.8902 at 0.9273.

GBP/AUD also edges lower today and near term outlook remains bearish for 61.8% projection of 2.1643 to 2.0478 from 2.1003 at 2.0283 next.

The Australian dollar continues to hover around the 0.66 level and close to three-week highs. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6604, up 0.30% on the day.

Inflation expectations expected to remain at 3.9%

The Reserve Bank of Australia will be keeping a close eye on Thursday's consumer inflation expectations, which is expected to remain unchanged in September at 3.9%. Inflation expectations fell in August to 3.9% from 4.7%, the lowest level since March.

With inflation largely under control, the Reserve Bank has continued its easing cycle, lowering rates in August to 3.6%, the lowest level since April 2023. At the meeting, the RBA signaled that it would continue to cut rates as the inflation was easing and the labor market had cooled.

China's inflation points lower

China continues to grapple with deflation. Consumer inflation in August declined 0.4% y/y, down from 0% in July and lower than the market estimate of -0.2%. Monthly, CPI was flat, down from 0.4% in July and below the market estimate of 0.1%. The Producer Price Index fell 2.9% y/y, following a 3.6% decline and in line with the market estimate.

Deflation in China reflects decreased demand, which could spell trouble for Australia, as China is its largest trading partner.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates at next week's meeting, even though inflation is around 3%, above the Fed's target of 2%. The US releases August consumer inflation on Thursday, with headline CPI expected to rise to 2.9% from 2.7% and the core rate projected to remain unchanged at 3.1%. The inflation report is unlikely to change any minds at the Fed about a September cut, but could change market expectations about one further rate cut before the end of the year.

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6590 and is testing 0.6610. Next, there is resistance at 0.6635
• 0.6570 and 0.6555 are the next support levels

AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 9, 2025

EURUSD extended pullback on early Wednesday, following nearly 0.5% drop on Tuesday, but fresh bears were so far limited despite initial negative signal on formation of bearish engulfing pattern on daily chart.

Initial Fibo support at 1.1690 (23.6% of 1.1391/1.1780) reinforced by 10DMA provides solid support which contained today’s dips.

Technical picture on daily chart is predominantly bullish, though early next week’s daily cloud twist would be magnetic and attract bears for probe through 1.1690 and attack at next key levels at 1.1630/10 zone (Fibo 38.2%/Sep 2,3 higher lows.

Traders eye key economic events, ECB interest rate decision and US Aug CPI, due on Thursday.

The European Central Bank is expected to keep rates on hold at 2%, as Eurozone consumer prices are steady around the ECB’s target.

Fed meets next week, and it is widely expected to deliver the first rate cut (25 basis points), with strong weakening in the US labor sector increasing pressure for policy easing, as US policymakers see still elevated inflation as temporary, with current restrictive monetary policy expected to absorb negative impacts.

Res: 1.1736; 1.1780; 1.1800; 1.1830.
Sup: 1.1690; 1.1630; 1.1610; 1.1574.

Deflation persists, creating opportunities to stimulate the Chinese economy. Without these measures, conditions are created for the yuan to strengthen.

In August, the consumer price index returned to negative territory, dropping 0.4% year over year. Over the past two years, the average inflation rate has been zero, making it appropriate to discuss deflation in China.

The producer price index was 2.9% lower than a year earlier. While this represents a slowdown in the rate of decline, it is still a negative trend that has been evident in this indicator for the last 35 months, or nearly three years. Producer prices are an important factor that puts pressure on final selling prices, allowing China to retain its title as an exporter of deflation.

Developed countries would consider such inflation rates a reason to ease monetary policy, lower rates, or stimulate final demand in some other way. However, the People’s Bank of China is pursuing a different strategy. It has kept rates unchanged since May to avoid creating bubbles in the housing sector.

The government and central bank do not seem to consider low inflation a problem that supports the national currency. Since the beginning of August, the USDCNH exchange rate has been drifting downward, losing 1.3%. Although growth rates are not high, they have brought the exchange rate back to its lows since Trump’s presidential election victory. The USDCNH exchange rate has been supported near the current levels of 7.11 over the past two years, although it slipped down in September and October of last year.

Technically, current levels may attract buyers, but traders should monitor the situation closely to determine whether a real reversal of the dollar’s long-term trend is occurring.

The USD/JPY pair consolidated around 147.32 JPY on Wednesday, following sharp fluctuations earlier in the week. Market participants are awaiting key US inflation data, which could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s policy decision next week.
The recent downward revision of US employment statistics has strengthened the case for earlier monetary easing by the Fed. Some investors are even pricing in the possibility of a more aggressive 50-basis-point rate cut.

In Japan, a private survey revealed that business sentiment in the manufacturing sector reached a three-year high, driven mainly by reduced trade risks after the conclusion of a tariff agreement with the US.

On the political front, markets are monitoring the aftermath of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation, which resulted from deepening divisions within the ruling party and political pressure following last year’s election defeat.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to develop an upward wave within an ascending channel. The next likely target is the upper channel boundary near 148.40 JPY. Following this ascent, the pair may enter a corrective phase. The primary upside targets remain 149.00 JPY, with a further objective at 150.75 JPY. The MACD indicator supports this outlook: the histogram remains below zero but has begun to rise, while the signal line has moved above the histogram and is turning upward, signalling building bullish momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is testing the 147.50 JPY resistance level. A break above this level could open the way for further gains towards 148.40 JPY. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal lines are rising towards the 50.0 level. A clear break above 50.0 would signal strengthening upward momentum.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is taking a breather after recent volatility as traders await crucial US inflation data. Weak figures could reinforce expectations of Fed easing, potentially weakening the dollar further. Technically, the pair retains a near-term bullish bias within the ascending channel, though a corrective pullback remains possible after testing higher resistance levels.

• USDJ/PY maintains a tight horizontal move for the second month.
• Resistance at 148.60, support at 146.90.

USD/JPY held stubbornly within the tight 146.90–149.00 range despite the recent NFP-driven turbulence that caused a flash drop to 146.29. However, with the sideways move now stretching into its eighth consecutive week and the clock ticking down to today’s release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August, a shift in sentiment may be just around the corner.

The data may reveal whether input costs continue to squeeze producers’ margins, strengthening the case for sticky inflation as the labor market shows stronger signs of cooling. From a technical perspective, traders remain indecisive: the RSI is hovering just below its neutral 50 mark, while the MACD is muted between its zero and red signal lines. Price action is also limited near the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).

As a result, traders may prefer to stay on the sidelines unless a clear break occurs. A sustainable move below the 146.90 floor could open the door to the 145.55 support level. Further declines might then target 144.35, followed by the 142.70 floor.

On the flip side, buyers may wait for a decisive rebound above the 200-day SMA at 148.60 and the 149.00 zone. If that resistance gives way, the pair could advance toward the 151.00 level, which the bulls failed to secure in July. Slightly higher, the tentative resistance trendline connecting the May and July highs could cap gains near 151.75.

In short, USD/JPY remains in wait-and-see mode for the second straight month. A move above 148.60 or below 146.90 could set the next directional course.