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Benefitting from a weak nonfarm payrolls report last week, recent demand for precious metals has secured a fresh yearly high for silver, trading at around $41.2708 at the time of writing.

Silver trades +0.68% higher in today's session.

Silver (XAG/USD): Key takeaways from today’s session

• With last week’s price action representing silver’s best weekly performance since early June, US labour data significantly missing expectations has further increased rate cut bets, benefitting non-yielding precious metals
• Otherwise, persistent inflation, spiralling US debt, and generalised lack of economic confidence are offering a significant tailwind to silver pricing

Silver (XAG/USD): September Fed rate cut virtually ‘nailed-on’ after poor labour data

Ending last week in spectacular fashion, August’s NFP report fell short of expectations significantly, offering some upside to silver, which ended

Coming in some 50,000 openings below consensus, at 22k, the result not only represents a worse-than-expected result, but also signifies the fourth consecutive month where job growth has been virtually flat.

While this is, quite literally, yesterday’s news, the report has all but confirmed that the Federal Reserve will cut target rates in its upcoming decision, aiming to kickstart an otherwise struggling labour market.

Notwithstanding, recent dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve has also fed into the same narrative.

CME FedWatch, 08/09/2025

At the time of writing, CME FedWatch rates a 25 bps cut at an 88.4% probability, which indicates a rare level of confidence in the Fed’s next decision.

As expected, a non-yielding asset such as silver stands to benefit from any suggestion that rate cuts are becoming more likely, as proven by price action on Friday. At least for now, upside seems to have continued somewhat into this week’s trading.

Silver (XAG/USD): Safe-haven flows and inflationary pressures still at play

While the dollar looks set to continue its downtrend, it would be fair to say markets remain wary of the US economy, in no small part thanks to questions surrounding current sovereign debt, trade agreements and inflation.

For now, these questions largely remain unanswered. This uncertainty dampens risk appetite, significantly boosting precious metal gains, a phenomenon seen for much of this year.

In the latter case, sticky inflation, at least in a vacuum, is favourable for silver pricing, with many looking to precious metals as a means of hedging inflation. While heightened inflation can sometimes be met with a rate hike, typically silver negative, a struggling labour market will almost certainly force the Fed’s hand in cutting rates this time around.

Coupled with renewed safe-haven flows on general recession fears, at least in the short term, one outcome is a two-sided tailwind helping bolster further precious metal gains - silver included.

Silver (XAG/USD): Technical analysis - 08/09/2025

Silver (XAG/USD), OANDA, TradingView, 08/09/2025

On the daily timeframe, current price action remains well supported. If price can stay above $40.60, bulls will likely target $42.72 in the near term

EURUSD: ⬆️ Buy

• EURUSD broke resistance level 1.1720
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1835

EURUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance level 1.1720 (which is the upper border of the narrow sideways price range inside which the pair has been moving from the start of August).

The breakout of this sideways price range should accelerate the active impulse wave (3) from the end of last month.

Given the clear daily uptrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 1.1835 (former multi-month high from July).

The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6588, up 0.49% on the day. Earlier, the Australian dollar climbed to a daily high of 0.6598, its highest level since July 25.

The US dollar ended the week broadly lower, as investors dumped the greenback after the soft US employment report. August nonfarm payrolls fell to 22 thousand, well below the revised market estimate of 79 thousand and lower than the July gain of 75 thousand. The Australian dollar rose as much as 1.1% on Friday before giving up about half its gains.

Australian confidence levels are expected to show an improvement on Tuesday. Westpac Consumer Confidence is projected to rise 1.0% in September after a strong 5.7% gain in August. The NAB Business Confidence has been moving higher and is expected to rise in August to 8 points from 7 a month earlier, which was the highest reading since August 2022.

Chinese exports slip

US tariffs are taking their toll on China's economy. In August, China's exports to the US fell by 33%. The US and China extended a trade truce in August, but that has still left US tariffs of 55% on Chinese goods and 35% Chinese tariffs on US goods.

China is in a deflationary phase and growth has been subdued. This does not bode well for the Australian economy or the Aussie, as China is Australia's largest trading partner. Australia hasn't been hit as hard as other countries by US trade policy, with tariffs of 10% on Australian products, but the US-China trade war could pose a serious headache for Australia's export sector.

AUD/USD Technical

• The Australian dollar tested resistance at 0.6594 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.6633
• 0.6551 and 0.6512 are providing support

AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 8, 2025

Markets

Markets took a calm start to what could become an interesting trading week. Things kick off tonight with French PM Bayrou’s self-imposed confidence vote on his plans to tackle derailing public finances. While a defeat is market’s base scenario, a lot uncertainty remains on the way forward with all eyes directed at French president Macron afterwards. Will he put efforts in finding yet again a new “neutral” candidate to help overcome major ideological viewpoints in the hung parliament, ending in less fiscal discipline than proposed by PM Bayrou, or immediately throw the towel by calling early elections? Both scenarios suggest French assets will face continued pressure in the short term especially with the country’s credit rating at risk on Friday (AA- with negative outlook) of falling into single A category for a first time (Moody’s Aa3 stable, S&P AA- negative). Tomorrow’s key talking point will be the US Bureau of Labour Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision to the establishment survey data for the 12 months through March 2025. Using more comprehensive data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, the BLS revises job data with final revisions due in March of next year. Markets anticipate significant downward revisions in line with last year when the job numbers in the 12 months to March 2024 were downwardly revised by 818k mainly because of issues with the birth-death model of companies and undocumented immigration. A significant revision might push US money markets into attaching a larger probability to a 50 bps Fed rate cut next week as it confirms fears of deeper labour market weakness. The BLS revisions need to be balanced with August US producer price (Wednesday), consumer price inflation (Thursday) and inflation expectations in the University of Michigan consumer survey for September (Friday) which are expected to reveal more signs of tariff-related inflation and argue in favour of a more gentle 25 bps rate cut next week. On Thursday, ECB President Lagarde probably faces one of the more easy-going press conferences since taking the helm at the central bank. An unchanged policy decision will be backed by nearly unchanged GDP and CPI forecasts in a world of reduced geopolitical uncertainty. It helps Lagarde spreading the message that monetary policy is in a comfortable position to face the future. We see a next evaluation point as early as March of next year. EMU money markets currently err slightly on the dovish side, pricing a 37% probability of a rate cut before year-end. Finally, we keep a close eye at the US Treasury’s mid-month refinancing operation. Tuesday’s $58bn 3-yr Note sale is followed by a $39bn 10-yr Note deal on Wednesday and a $22bn 30-yr Bond auction on Thursday. The recent bull steepening of the US yield curve also helped the very long end of the curve (30-yr) away from make-or-break levels (5%). Question remains whether there will be a lot of interest at current levels given the still dire shape of US finances and political & reputational risk still present (eg Fed independence debate).

News & Views

Two weeks ahead of the Swiss National Bank’s September policy meeting, the central bank’s governor took a critical view of reintroducing negative interest rates. The current level stands at 0% and recent inflation numbers (0.2% y/y) at first glance suggest further monetary easing is perhaps needed. Martin Schlegel in an interview with Migros Magazin, however, said the hurdle to revert back to an era of negative rates is high. He added that it can have undesirable side effects, for example for savers and pension funds. Schlegel pushed back when asked whether the central bank shot its monetary powder too early, saying that making forward-looking decisions is key in order to avoid having to take stronger countermeasures later. Schlegel’s views were in line with those the vice-governor aired end of August. Market implied odds for another 25 bps cut remain around 25% for end 2025 though. The Swiss franc strengthens today to EUR/CHF 0.932. Schlegel in the interview wasn’t so concerned about the strong CHF, since its real appreciation was not as great.

The EU is considering a 19th sanction package against Russia over its war with Ukraine. The sanctions would target about half a dozen Russian banks and energy companies as well as Russia’s payment and credit card systems, crypto exchanges and additional restrictions on its oil trade. Oil prices rebound today after losing ground over the three previous trading sessions, when it anticipated OPEC’s decision last week to further restore oil output. Brent currently trades around $66.8 per barrel and remains firmly established within a $65-$75 sideways trading range.

The Japanese yen is in positive territory on Monday. In the European sesssion, USD/JPY is trading at 147.87, down 0.35% on the day.

Japan's economy expands 2.2% in Q2

The week has started on a positive note in Japan, as GDP for the second quarter was revised sharply higher to 2.2% y/y, up from the initial reading of 1.0% and above the Q1 gain of 0.3%.

This was the fastest pace of growth since Q3 2024, as private consumption was higher, in part due to government subsidies for rice and energy. Exports were higher as firms rushed to ship to the US before the blanket 15% tariffs kicked in. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded 0.5%, up from the initial reading of 0.3%.

The increase in exports could be short-lived, as the US tariffs are making Japanese exports more expensive. Tariffs concerns could delay the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, and third-quarter GDP will help gauge the effect of the tariffs on Japan's economy.

The political uncertainty in Japan is another factor which supports the BoJ staying on the sidelines. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has resigned after a disastrous election in which Ishiba's coalition lost its majority in the lower house of parliament. It remains unclear who will replace Ishiba, with leadership vote expected in October.

US nonfarm payrolls fall to 22 thousand

US nonfarm payrolls disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021.

The money markets responded to the weak nonfarm payrolls report by fully pricing in a rate cut at next week's meeting, with a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut and a 10% chance of a half-point cut, according to CME's FedWatch. Prior to the jobs release, there was a 0% chance of a half-point cut.

USD/JPY Technical

• USD/JPY is testing support at 147.60. Next, there is support at 146.62
• There is resistance at 148.37 and 149.35

USDJPY 1-Day Chart, September 8, 2025

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1656; (P) 1.1708; (R1) 1.1771; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside, and rise from 1.1390 should target a retest on 1.1829 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 1.1916 projection level. On the downside, below 1.1702 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.1607 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3436; (P) 1.3495; (R1) 1.3568; More...

Outlook in GBP/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays on the upside. Firm break of 1.3594 resistance will resume the rally from 1.3140 and target a retest on 1.3787 high. On the downside, below 1.3480 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3332 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3132) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7936; (P) 0.8000; (R1) 0.8043; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays on the downside for retesting 0.7871 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.8475 to 0.7871 from 0.8170 at 0.7797. On the upside, above 0.7994 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But rise will stay on the downside as long as 0.8071 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.62; (P) 147.60; (R1) 148.37; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 146.65 will suggest that fall from 150.90 is resuming. More importantly, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 147.15) will argue that whole rebound from 139.87 has completed with three waves up to 150.90. Deeper decline should then be seen to 142.66 support next. However, break of 149.12 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 150.90.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.