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Daily Pivots: (S1) 170.78; (P) 171.28; (R1) 171.62; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 172.25. Downside should be contained above 168.44 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 172.25 will extend the rise from 154.77 to 138.2% projection of 154.77 to 164.16 from 161.06 at 174.03.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 (2024 high) are seen as correction to up trend from 114.42 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 175.41 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9308; (P) 0.9318; (R1) 0.9334; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.9428/45 resistance zone will resume the rebound from 0.9218. On the downside, break of 0.9297 will bring retest of 0.9218 low instead.

In the bigger picture, while downside momentum has been diminishing as seen in W MACD, there is no sign of bottoming yet. EUR/CHF is still staying below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9433) and well inside long term falling channel. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9660 resistance holds. Break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption of down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1659; (P) 1.1705; (R1) 1.1746; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Strong support is expected from 1.1630 resistance turned support to complete the correction from 1.1829. On the upside, firm break of 1.1829 will resume the rise from 1.0176 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, sustained break of 1.1630 will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1459) instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.74; (P) 146.27; (R1) 146.77; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, firm break of 148.01 resistance will resume the rise from 139.87 to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22. However, break of 142.66 will bring deeper fall back to retest 139.87 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). There is no clear sign that the pattern has completed yet. But still, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3534; (P) 1.3577; (R1) 1.3620; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. Corrective pullback from 1.3787 could extend lower. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.3369 support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3680 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.3787. Firm break of 1.3787 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2985) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7930; (P) 0.7959; (R1) 0.7998; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Corrective pattern from 0.7871 could extend higher. But upside should be limited by 0.8054 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 0.7871 will extend the larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.7313 next.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3636; (P) 1.3666; (R1) 1.3692; More...

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.3555 resumed after brief retreat and intraday bias is back on the upside. Consolidative pattern from 1.3538 is in its third leg and further rise should be seen to 1.3797 and possibly above. On the downside, however, break of 1.3637 minor support will bring retest of 1.3538/55 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Sentiment across major US indices was surprisingly positive this week – considering an avalanche of relatively high tariff rates announced throughout the week – some of which were quite shocking, like the 50% tariffs on copper and Brazil, between 25% to 40% on Asian nations, and possibly 35% on Canadian goods imports.

But investors took the news with no apparent stress. They could’ve worried that the tariffs would lead to significant spikes in inflation, potential disruption in supply chains, and unnecessary economic slowdown – a combination that could result in possible stagflation and a hands-tied Federal Reserve (Fed). But no. We haven’t seen any of those risks being priced into equity markets. On the contrary, the S&P500 claimed its second all-time high on Thursday, as Nvidia helped boost appetite in AI stocks. Strong earnings and a positive outlook from Delta Airlines sent airline shares rallying, with Delta adding as much as 12%. United Airlines jumped 14%, while American and Southwest rose nearly 13% and 8%, respectively. Improved demand for travel hinted at stronger consumer sentiment – which had recently taken a hit due to tariff fears – and supported the hope that US consumer spending will defy the tariff hikes. We hope it will.

In the sovereign space, strong sales of US Treasuries throughout the week also supported the bullish sentiment – global investors signalled that they are ready to keep financing Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ tax bill and the exploding US debt.

Across the Atlantic, the lack of news about a trade deal between the US and the EU kept investors in a sweet wait-and-hope mode and sent the Stoxx 600 to its highest levels in a month.

Elsewhere, the closely watched Japanese 20-year bond auction went relatively smoothly. Demand came in below the long-term average, but it was the strongest since March. As such, Japanese long-maturity yields are lower this morning: the 20-year yield is down to 2.50%, while the 30-year yield is testing the 3% mark to the downside.

As such, risks continue to be ignored by the market: good news grabs all the attention, while bad news is brushed under the rug. You don’t need CNN’s Fear and Greed Index to see that there is extreme greed in the markets these days – which also helps push Bitcoin, for example, to fresh all-time highs with eyes now set on the $120K per coin mark.

So it’s in this atmosphere of fragile optimism that the earnings season will kick off next week – fragile because earnings growth expectations have been revised down, from nearly 10% to around 5–7%, while S&P 500 stocks have been busy climbing the Everest.

While lower expectations are easier to beat and the softer US dollar should help sweeten revenues, the impact of trade uncertainties remains highly uncertain.

Anyway, you know what? Big bank analysts continue to raise their year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 – and pessimistic ones, like JP Morgan’s Marko Kolanovic, are being pushed out of their jobs. So it’s hard to call for a correction. Up we go, and we hope tariffs won’t hurt much.

In FX, the US dollar is better bid on reduced stress around tariffs and a softer perception of exploding US debt (while the reality HASN’T changed). The EURUSD consolidates below the 1.17 mark, Cable is preparing to test the 1.35 support – which also matches the 50-DMA – and the USDJPY remains bid, trading near 147 at the time of writing.

Given the strong bearish positioning in the dollar, we could see the greenback’s rebound gain momentum in the coming weeks and drag major peers lower. But the EURUSD should remain in its year-to-date bullish consolidation zone above 1.12 – the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s rally. Cable should maintain its positive outlook above 1.3140, while the margin for the yen is tighter: the USDJPY is already stepping back into the bullish consolidation zone above 147.50.

The upcoming Upper House elections in Japan and doubts about the LDP’s ability to maintain a majority are weighing on appetite for Japanese assets, including the yen. Trade tensions with the US aren’t helping either. So, the Nikkei remains under pressure despite some relief in JGBs and the cheaper yen. Politics could be a key driver of sentiment in Japan over the next few weeks.

Elsewhere, in energy, US crude failed to clear the 200-DMA yesterday and fell more than 2% – despite news that OPEC will stop adding extra barrels to the market after unwinding the last chunk of the 2.2mbpd cuts in September, fearing that too much oil would send prices to undesirably low levels.

Meanwhile, there’s chatter of stronger sanctions against Russia: Europe wants to cut the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel, and a new bipartisan US bill proposes slapping 500% tariffs on goods from countries buying Russian oil. That would hit China and India – which together buy around 70% of Russian supply. Depending on how these EM giants react, demand for US and Brent crude could spike, pushing WTI and Brent prices higher. Alas, oil bulls are nowhere to be found this morning. Even news that the Red Sea is boiling again hasn’t helped. Key support for US crude remains at $65 per barrel, and for Brent at $67. Below those levels, oil will likely return to the first-half’s bearish trend.

UK GDP unexpectedly contracted by -0.1% mom in May, missing expectations for 0.1% mom growth. The weakness was driven by a sharp -0.9% mom drop in industrial production and a -0.6% mom fall in construction output, partially offset by a modest 0.1% mom gain in services—the largest sector of the economy.

Still, broader momentum remains positive. Real GDP rose 0.5% in the three months to May, thanks to steady growth in services (+0.4%) and solid gains in construction (+1.2%). Production also rose 0.2%.

Full UK monthly GDP release here.

Key Highlights

• WTI Crude Oil prices started a fresh decline below the $70.00 zone.
• A rising channel is forming with support at $66.50 on the 4-hour chart.
• Gold bulls are struggling to clear the $3,350 resistance.
• EUR/USD extended losses and corrected below the 1.1720 zone.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil price failed to continue higher above $72.50 against the US Dollar. There was a strong bearish reaction below the $70.00 and $68.00 levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price settled below the $70.00 level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A low was formed at $65.00, and the price recently started a consolidation phase.

There was a move above the $68.00 level, but the bears remained active near the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $68.0 level. The first key resistance sits near the $70.00 level.

The main hurdle is now near the $71.80 zone, above which the price may perhaps accelerate higher. In the stated case, it could even visit the $73.50 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of the $75.00 resistance zone in the near term.

On the downside, the first major support sits near the $66.20 zone. The next support could be $65.00. A daily close below $65.00 could open the doors for a larger decline. The next major support is $63.40. Any more losses might send oil prices toward $62.00 in the coming days.

Looking at Gold, the bears are active below the $3,650 level, and they might aim for a drop toward the $3,260 level.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• USDA WASDE Report.
• Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count.
• Monthly Budget Statement (Jun).