PBOC’s Restraint Monetary Policy will Continue to Support CNY vs USD. US-China Tensions as Major Downside Risk
Renminbi (a.k.a. RMB, CNY) has strengthened against US dollar over the past 3 weeks. While the broad-based USD weakness is the key reason, PBOC's neutral policy action over the past months has also led to renminbi's appreciation. We expect the phenomenon would persist, supporting renminbi, in coming months.
PBOC announced...
FOMC Minutes Revealed Rigorous Debate over Alternative Monetary Policy Tools
The FOMC minutes for the July meeting revealed that the members remained concerned about the outlook of economic recovery. They had discussed a number of tools for further easing, including forward guidance, asset purchases, and yield curve targets. Meanwhile, the members again stressed that fiscal support is particularly important...
Dollar Rebounds but Reversal Not Warranted Yet, Gold and Stocks Fall
Dollar staged a strong rebound overnight, reversing all of prior day's losses. The uninspiring FOMC minutes were a lift in a way that it provided no dovish elements for further selloff. Yet, the greenback is kept well below near term resistance levels against all major currencies. It also remains...
US Cushing Oil Stock Fell for First Time in Almost 2 Months. Oil Prices Dropped on Weaker Demand Prospect
Crude oil prices weakened despite decline in US inventory levels. At the video conference held by the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, oil producers warned that “the pace of recovery appeared to be slower than anticipated. Yet, they dismissed increasing output cut from the current deal. The report from...
Focus Turned to Swiss Franc Selloff While Dollar Stabilizes Mildly
Selling focus turns from Dollar to Swiss Franc today, which also drags down Sterling, and to a lesser extent Euro. Dollar stabilized a little bit but there is apparent strength for recovery yet. In particular, commodity currencies are generally stronger while Canadian Dollar shrugs off weaker than expected inflation...
Dollar Stays Pressured ahead of FOMC Minutes, Gold Retreats
Dollar remains generally pressured today even though selling momentum seems to be easing a little bit. A focus will be on FOMC minutes which is unlikely to provide anything about the next policy move. Instead, investors would be more eager to know how Fed would shape the results of...
Dollar Breaks Near Term Support, Starting Another Leg in Down Trend
Dollar's selloff accelerates entering into US session, taking out recent lows against all major currencies except Yen. Another leg in the near term down trend has started. Swiss Franc and Yen are the next weakest, together with New Zealand dollar. On the other hand, Sterling and Euro are both...
AUDNZD’s Rally on Yield Differential Looks Overextended
Recent strength in Australian dollar has sent AUDNZD to the highest level in 2 years. Notwithstanding the second wave of coronavirus outbreak, and the renewed lockdown measures, in Victoria, Aussie has remained firm. While all major currencies have appreciated in light of the broad-based USD weakness, AUD is the...
Yen Rebound Continues While Dollar Looks Vulnerable
Yen's rebound continues in relatively quiet trading in Asia. Risk aversion is not apparent as major indices outside of Japan are all in slight black. Instead, Yen traders could be reversing recent shorts as treasury yields pull back. Staying in the currency markets, New Zealand Dollar remains the worst...
Yen Rebounds as Treasury Yields Retreat, Dollar Stays Pressured in Range
Yen rises broadly today as global treasury yields appear to be turning south. In particular, US 10-year yield is back below 0.7 handle in pre-markets. Dollar is pressured but holds on to recently established range. But overall markets are mixed with major European indices bounded in tight range. Australian...
Euro Mildly Higher in Mixed Markets, Kiwi Down as Election Postponed
Euro strengthens mildly in generally mixed Asian markets today. There is no clear direction as Japan stocks diverge from others while gold and oil are rangebound. Canadian and Australian Dollar are following as the next strongest but movements are limited. Yen and Dollar are trading with an undertone. But...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Gold and Silver Futures Trimmed as Prices Pulled Back after Rally
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 11, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -15 331 contracts to 520 935 for the week. Speculative long position declined -10 925 contracts, while shorts added +4 406. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Trades on USD Index Futures Continued to Shrank as US Real Yields Stay Negative
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 11, NET SHORT for USD Index futures rose +1 707 to 8 182 contracts. Speculative long positions dropped -2 152 contracts and short positions were down -445 contracts. Fed's ultra monetary easing has sent yields...
Yields Surged, Gold Corrected, But Dollar Got No Lift
It was a rather mixed week where there were conditions for a Dollar rebound, with surging treasury yield and correction in Gold. Yet, no apparent rally was seen. Yen was sold off generally, partly on coronavirus and recovery optimism. But the Swiss Franc was firm together with Euro.
Strong rally...
Sterling Firms Up in Subdued Trading, Dollar Yawns Retail Sales
Trading in in the currency markets continue to be relatively subdued. Sterling is so far the strongest one for today. But it's staying below near term resistance against Euro and Dollar so far. It's also hovering below yesterday's high against Yen. Yen appears to be recovery, in particular against...
Sentiments Weighed Mildly by China Data, Gold and Yields to Watch
Markets are relatively steady in Asia today. Sentiment was somewhat weighed down by mixed data from China, but there is no apparently follow through selling. New Zealand Dollar continues to be pressured as the country extends coronavirus lockdown by 12 days. Australian Dollar seems to be benefiting from the...
China’s Retail Sales Shrank Further, Evidencing Weak Domestic Demand
The latest set of macroeconomic data suggests that the pace of recovery in China remained slow, as a result of flooding and second wave of coronavirus outbreak. Improvement industrial activities decelerated, while retail sales continued to shrink. Weak domestic spending was evident in subdued core CPI released earlier this...
Dollar Shrugs Jobless Claims, Yen Selloff Accelerates
Dollar continues to trade with a soft tone despite better than expected jobless claims data. The decline in claims data is seen more as a result of expiration USD 600 a week supplemental federal benefits, rather than the improvement in the labor market conditions. For now, though, New Zealand...
Euro Higher in Consolidative Markets, Yet to Break Resistance Against Dollar
European majors turn slightly stronger today, in mixed markets. Euro appears to be supported by news that US is refraining from tariffs hikes on Airbus subsidies retaliation. Though, except versus Yen, Euro's strength is not too convincing yet. Dollar turns soft again following strong rally in US stocks overnight....
US Oil and Petroleum Product Stockpile Fell Across the Board Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -2.11 mmb to 1452.57 mmb in the week ended August 12. Crude oil inventory declined -4.51 mmb (consensus: -2.88 mmb) to 514.08 mmb. Stockpile fell in 2 out...