CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Crude Oil Trimmed on Renewed Inventory Build-Up
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 7, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -17 850 contracts to 686 543 for the week. Speculative long positions fell -17 850 contracts while shorts dropped -9 341 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Yen Staying Firm But Risk Markets Refuse to Give Up
The financial markets are still refusing to commit to a direction. Major European stocks are generally higher despite broad selloff in Asia. US futures point to lower open while 10-year yield is doing its best to hold on to 0.6% handle. Swiss Franc is currently the worst performing one...
Aussie Tumbles on Coronavirus Spike, Yen Flies on Risk Aversion
Yen surges broadly today as the financial markets are back in risk-off mode. Or at least, rally in Chinese stocks is having a pause. Investors some what turned cautious ahead of the week. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced sanctions on some Chinese officials, including a Politburo member,...
BOJ Preview: Maintaining Negative Rates and QE, while Downgrading Economic Forecasts
While we expect BOJ to maintain all of its monetary policy measures unchanged, the central bank would likely downgrade the economic forecasts for FY2020. BOJ’s Tankan survey revealed that companies of all sectors were worse off in 2Q20, sending the sentiment to the weakest level since global financial crisis...
Sterling Continues to Shine While Stocks Take a Breather
Sterling continues to trade as the strongest one on stimulus optimism while Europe majors are also firm. On the other hand, Dollar remains the weakest one, even worse than Japanese Yen. Stock market rally might take a breath again today with US futures pointing to flat open. Major European...
China CPI Picked Up Due to Temporary Food Price Increase, Unlikely Derail Easing Monetary Policy Stance
Headline CPI improved further to +2.5% y/y in June, from +2.4% a month ago. This came in line with market expectations Core CPI (excluding food and energy) eased to +0.9% y/y, from +1.1% in May. While staying in the negative territory, PPI improved to -3% y/y in June, up...
Dollar Selloff Resumes as Euro Powers Up
Dollar is sold off broadly while Yen is following as the second weakest. Sentiments are apparently lifted by stimulus hopes despite surge in global coronavirus cases. European majors are leading the way higher, with Sterling having a touch more strength. Commodity currencies, on the other hand, somewhat lag behind....
Upside in Crude Oil Prices Limited: OPEC+ Cut Prone to Ease Next Month while US Inventory Gained on Imports
The rise in oil prices paused while hovering at recent highs. While there are signs that OPEC+ has cut output more than promised, the increase in US inventory has again raised concerns about oversupply. S&P's survey suggests that OPEC-10 as a whole reduced output aggressively in June. The aggregate...
Gold Surges Through 1800 While Currencies Range Bound
Major forex pairs and crosses are staying inside yesterday's range as trading turned subdued. US futures are nearly flat despite mild weakness in European markets. Europe majors are currently the strongest ones for the week, as led by Sterling. The Pound is paying no attention to the deadlock in...
Commodity Currencies Weaken as Risk Rally Lost Momentum, Sterling Shrugs Brexit Deadlock
Australian Dollar weakens generally today and takes commodity currencies lower too. Risk-on markets have taken a halt this week, with some notably pullbacks in the US markets overnight. But Asian markets are just mixed. European majors are generally firmer for today, as led by Sterling. Brexit negotiations deadlock is...
Sterling Regains Ground as Dollar Lacks Follow Through Buying
Markets are in mild risk-off mode today but losses are so far limited so far. Dollar attempts for a rebound but upside is so far limited. The greenback is somewhat outshone by Sterling, which is regaining so strength, in particular against Euro and Yen. Australian Dollar is currently the...
RBA Left Monetary Policy Unchanged. Second Wave in Outbreak Signals Huge Downside Risks
As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25%. It also maintained yield curve control, targeting 3-year government bond yield at 0.25%. While the members were more upbeat about the near-term recovery, they remained cautious about the longer-term outlook. The members cited the uncertainty in the coronavirus...
Aussie Lower as Melbourne Back in Lockdown, RBA Stands Pat
Australian Dollar trades mildly lower today as Asian stocks outside China are paring gains. Also, as coronavirus virus cases surged again in Victoria state, Melbourne is back in lockdown. Meanwhile, RBA stands pat as widely expected and provide little inspirations. As for now, commodity currencies are also weak while...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bet on Lower USD Continued. Expect Risk Appetite to Shrink in Coming Week as Coronavirus Cases Increase in Various...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 30, NET SHORT for USD Index futures dropped -339 to 4 975 contracts. Speculative long positions decreased +857 contracts and short positions declined -2 180 contracts. Bets on both sides fell as the market remained...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Energy Prices Dropped Across the Board
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 30, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -17 057 contracts to 543 826 for the week. Speculative long positions dropped -6 864 contracts while shorts rose +10 193 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Markets in Full Risk On, Dollar Tumbles While Euro Surges
Powerful rally in Chinese stock markets push global equities sharply higher today. Europeans indices are all in black, DOW future is up nearly 400 pts while NASDAQ is set to extend record run. Yen and Dollar are both the worst performing ones in risk-on markets. Euro is the strongest...
Euro Jumps as China Markets Extend Powerful Rally
Dollar and Yen are under pressure today as Asian markets opened the week with strong rally. In particular, Chinese stocks are extending last week's powerful rise, taking Hong Kong equities up too. In the currency markets, though, Euro is currently the largest beneficiary and is so far the strongest....
Markets Welcome Solid Economic Data and Ignored Coronavirus Numbers
Markets looked rather indifferent to the resurgence of coronavirus infections. Daily new cases surged to new high above 200k. Total cases broke 11m while deaths is closing in to 530k. But traders and investors couldn't care less. Instead, sentiments were lifted by hope of recovery ahead, with Q3 already...
Sentiments Supported Further by China Services Data, Yen and Dollar Soft
Markets are generally trading in risk-on mode today. NASDAQ surged to new record highs overnight following solid US job data. Better than expected China services data continue to support sentiment. Yen, Dollar and Euro are set to end the week as the worst performing ones while Sterling and commodity...
Strong NFP Lifts Stock But Not Dollar, Yen Weakens
Strong employment data from the US boosts market sentiments as DOW future is up over 400 pts at the time of writing. European indices are also extending gains. The greenback however, shrugs of the data and it's trading as the second weakest for today, next to Yen. New Zealand...