CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Strength Lacks Momentum
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 18, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +261 contracts to 2 684. Speculative long positions added +27 contracts while shorts dropped -234 contracts. Bets on both sides were limited as traders awaited FOMC minutes....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Crude Oil Trimmed as Iran Sanctions Prone to be Lifted
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 18, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures sank -20 614 contracts to 475 947 for the week. Speculative long position fell -37 588 contracts, while shorts were down -16 974 contracts. Bets were trimmed on both...
CAD Rises after Retail Sales, Euro Tumbles
Canadian Dollar rises in early US session after stronger than expected retail sales data. Sterling is also firm after strong PMIs. But Euro had little reaction to the solid PMI data. Instead, the common currency seems to be reacting to ECB President Christine Lagarde's comment that accommodative policies remain...
Dollar Back Around Lows as Eurozone PMIs Eyed
The forex markets still generally range bound for the moment. Dollar weakened mildly overnight, but stays above near term lows against other major currencies. Similarly, Yen is also bounded in very tight range. US stocks' rebound overnight was as positive development for sentiments. Yet, there is no follow through...
Dollar Pare Gains in Quiet Ranging Markets, Euro Stays Strongest
The forex markets are very quiet today, with most major pairs and crosses staying inside yesterday's range. Dollar is paring some post FOMC minutes gains, while Sterling is also soft. On the other hand, Australian and New Zealand Dollar are both recovering mildly. As for the week, Euro is...
Dollar Recovers after FOMC Minutes, But No Technical Levels Broken Yet
Dollar recovered overnight, with help from mild risk aversion and some slight hawkish twists in FOMC minutes. Yet, it couldn't manage to break through any near term technical level yet. Euro remains the strongest one for the week at this point, followed by Yen. Commodity currencies are the generally...
FOMC Minutes Revealed that Some Members Raised Discussion over QE Tapering
The minutes for the FOMC meeting in April revealed that policymakers discussed about QE tapering. This came in as a surprise to the market, sending USD higher and Treasury lower. Both the policy statement and the press conference of the April meeting downplayed the need of QE tapering. Recall...
US Crude Oil Inventory Increased for First Time in 3 Weeks
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks slipped -0.23 mmb to 1283.59 mmb in the week ended May 14. Crude oil inventory increased +1.32 mmb (consensus: +1.68 mmb) to 486.01 mmb. Stockpile increased in 4 out...
Stocks Fall on Inflation Data and Surging Yields, Dollar Recovering Mildly
Global equities are under selling pressure today with another round of rise in treasury yields. In particular, Germany 10-year yield jumped above -0.1% handle and hit the highest level since mid-2019. The development came after stronger than expected inflation reading from UK, which was later followed by Canada CPI....
Dollar Staying Weak ahead of FOMC Minutes, Canadian Dollar Lost Momentum
Dollar's decline slowed in Asian session today, but remains generally weak, in particular against European majors. Though, indecisive risk sentiment is somehow limiting upside in commodity currencies, with Canadian Dollar following oil prices lower today. There is prospect of more volatility in the markets today, with consumer inflation data...
Dollar Selloff Intensifies, European Majors Winning
Dollar's selloff intensifies today as risk-on sentiment is slowly coming back to the markets. Yen is following as the next weakest. European majors are currently the main winners. Commodity currencies are somewhat lagging behind. In other markets, European indexes are trading slightly higher while US futures also point to...
Sterling Jumps on Reopening Optimism and Job Data, Risk Appetite Returning
Dollar and Yen are both under pressure again today, as broad based risk sentiments improved. In particular, the volatile Nikkei managed to close up more than 2%. New Zealand Dollar is leading other commodity currencies higher too. But Canadian Dollar and Sterling are the strongest ones for the week...
RBA Minutes Reaffirmed Likelihood of QE Expansion in July
The RBA minutes for the May minutes reaffirmed our view that further expansion in the asset purchase program would be announced later this year. The most likely timing for the announcement would be July.
Domestically, the members noted that the economic was in the transition from recovery to expansion. The...
Weak Risk Sentiment Supporting Dollar, For Now
Commodity currencies are trading as the weaker ones for today so far, as risk markets turn softer. Major European indexes are in slight red,. while US futures point to lower open. Yen is currently the stronger ones, followed by Swiss Franc and then Dollar. But overall, major pairs and...
China’s Growth Slowed Across the Board in April
China’s April data sent a mixed message about the economy. Retail sales expanded +17.7% y/y in April, significantly weaker than consensus of +25% and March’s +34.2%. Urban fixed asset investment (FAI) growth moderated to +19.9% in the first 4 months of the year, from +25.6% in 1Q21. The market...
Dollar Recovers Mildly, Gold Extending Rise, Bitcoin in Free Fall
Dollar and Yen recover mildly in a mixed Asian session today, while commodity currencies are mildly today. But major pairs and crosses are all bounded inside Friday's range so far. China data provided some support to Hong Kong and China stocks but Japanese Nikkei is in another sharp decline....
Stocks Stayed in Up Trend, Yields Range Bound, Dollar Lost Downside Momentum
Market debates heated up last week with the influx of some US economic data. On the other hand, the concerns on overheating inflation was legitimate given the much stronger than expected headline and core CPI reading from the US. On the other hand, poor retail sales, and prior week's...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length in Gold Futures Increased as Price Strengthened to 3-Month High
Precious metal prices gained ground last week as the surge in coronavirus pandemic in India raised safe haven demand. Traders signaficantly increased bets on high gold and silver prices last week.
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 11, NET LENGTH for crude oil...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher CAD Increased Markedly
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 11, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +368 contracts to 2 423. Speculative long positions gained +5 095 contracts while shorts were up +4 727 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
Dollar Down, Futures Pare Gain after Poor US Retail Sales
Dollar is under selling pressure against after rather poor retail sales data. US futures also pare back some earlier gains and look vulnerable. Yen is currently following the greenback as the second weakest, while commodity currencies are the strongest, together with Euro. The question now is, whether Dollar's decline...