ECB Makhlouf: Need to take similar steps to Dec in Feb and Mar

    ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said, “We need to continue to increase rates at our meeting next week – by taking a similar step to our December decisions – and also at our March meeting, although our future policy decisions need to continue to be data-dependent given the prevailing uncertainty.”

    “Raising the policy rate also signals our commitment to price stability,” Makhlouf added. “It sends a clear message that we will not allow inflation to stay above 2 per cent and helps to contain inflation expectations, guarding against the emergence of self-reinforcing inflation dynamics and tackling the risk of a persistent increase in inflation expectations.”

    Separately, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said, “For February and March, we have announced that we will raise interest rates sharply again. Then we will look at where the inflation rate is in the spring and what our experts’ forecast looks like. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have to keep raising rates even after the two announced steps.”

    Germany Ifo business climate rose to 90.2, starting new year with more confidence

      Germany Ifo Business Climate rose slightly from 88.6 to 90.2 in January, below expectation of 90.5. Current Assessment ticked down from 94.4 to 94.1, below expectation of 95.0. Expectations index, on the other hand, improved from 83.2 to 86.4, above expectation of 85.0.

      By sector, manufacturing rose from -5.7 to -0.7. Services rose from -1.2 to 0.2. Trade rose from -20.0 to -15.4. Construction also rose slightly from -21.9 to -21.6.

      Ifo said: “Sentiment in the German economy has brightened. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 90.2 points in January, up from 88.6 points in December. This is due to considerably less pessimistic expectations. Companies were, however, somewhat less satisfied with their current situation. The German economy is starting the new year with more confidence.”

      Full release here.

      Japan government downgrades economic assessment

        Japan Cabinet Office lowers its monthly economic assessment for the first in 11 months. It said, “the economy is recovering moderately but some weakness is seen recently.”

        Also assessment on exports was downgraded for the first time since 2011. Both exports and imports are “weakening recently” compared with its previous view of “almost flat” last month.

        “China’s coronavirus rebound could affect Japan’s exports and production and such a possibility has become clearer than last month,” said an official at the Cabinet Office.

        Assessment on domestic demand and private consumption was maintained as “picking up moderately”.

        BoC Previews: One more insurance hike before pausing

          BoC is expected to deliver an “insurance” rate hike of 25bps today, to bring policy rate to 4.50%. After this eighth consecutive increase, the central bank is expected to pause the tightening cycle.

          It’s already indicated in the December statement that the bank will be “considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further”. BoC should more explicitly indicate that it’s now the time to let pass rate hikes work through the economy.

          The question would then shift to the time interest rate is going to stay at this level, but no answer is expected any time soon.

          Here are some previews on BoC:

          CAD/JPY has been losing downside momentum for some time, as seen in daily MACD and a bounce is overdue. Yet, even in case of a rebound, strong resistance could be seen between 55 day EMA (now at 99.65) and 38.2% retracement of 110.33 to 94.61 at 100.61 to cap upside. Until 100.61 is taken out decisively, any bounce is more of a short opportunity than a turnaround.

          AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD extends up trend

            Australian Dollar surges broadly after much stronger than expected CPI reading in December in particular dented any hope for an imminent RBA pause. Meanwhile, New Zealand Dollar is just mixed as CPI didn’t accelerate as RBNZ projected, raising hope of a lower terminal rate.

            AUD/NZD breaks through 1.0935 resistance to resume the whole rally from 1.0469. The support from 55 day EMA is seen as a near term bullish favor. Further rise is now expected as long as 1.0735 support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0469 to 1.0935 from 1.0735 at 1.1023. Firm break there would prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.1201 next.

            AUD/CAD also breaks through 0.9442 temporary top to resume the rally from 0.8596. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9279 support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.8596 to 0.9328 from 0.9142 at 0.9594. Sustained break there would also prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.9874 next.

            Australia CPI rose to 8.4% yoy in Dec, 7.8% yoy in Q4

              Australia CPI rose 1.9% qoq in Q4, above expectation of 1.7% qoq. Annual CPI accelerated from 7.3% yoy to 7.8% yoy, above expectation of 7.5% yoy. RBA trimmed mean CPI also accelerated from 6.1% yoy to 6.9% yoy, above expectation of 6.5% yoy.

              Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, said “This is the fourth consecutive quarter to show a rise greater than any seen since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in 2000. The increase for the quarter was slightly higher than the quarterly movements for the September and June quarters last year (both 1.8 per cent).”

              “The annual increase for the CPI is the highest since 1990. Annual inflation for goods such as new dwellings and automotive fuel steadied this quarter, however we saw an uptick in inflation for services such as holidays and restaurant meals,” Marquardt said.

              Monthly CPI accelerated from 7.3% yoy to 8.4% yoy in December, above expectation of 7.7% yoy.

              Marquardt said, “The monthly indicator recorded the largest annual rise in the series in December. The most significant contributors in the 12 months to December were New dwellings, up 16.0 per cent, and Holiday travel and accommodation, up 29.3 per cent. Airfare and accommodation prices rose in response to strong demand over the Christmas holiday period.”

              Full release here.

              New Zealand CPI unchanged at 7.2% yoy in Q4

                New Zealand CPI rose 1.4% qoq in Q4, slightly below expectation of 1.5% qoq. Annual CPI was unchanged at 7.2% yoy, above expectation of 7.1% yoy, comparing to the peak at 7.3% yoy in Q2.

                StatsNZ said, “Housing and household utilities was the largest contributor to the December 2022 annual inflation rate. This was due to rising prices for both constructing and renting housing.”

                The quarterly rise in inflation was “influenced by rising prices in the housing and household utilities, food, and recreation and culture groups.”

                Full release here.

                ECB Simkus backs hikes of 50bps in the coming meetings

                  ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said yesterday, “core inflation remains strong and demonstrates that the fight against inflation is not over.”

                  “There’s a strong case for staying on the course that’s been set for the coming meetings of 50 basis-point increases. In my opinion, these 50 basis-point increases must be taken unequivocally,” he added.

                  “Pressures in wage growth are increasing — I expect wage increases to exceed historical averages in the euro area,” he said. “It’s something that’s happening and something we need to take into account because it affects core inflation.”

                  “It’s clear to me that the current economic environment requires us to deliver increases of 50 basis points in the coming meetings,” he said. “When we move to the more distant periods of the summer or next autumn, we need to wait and see.”

                  SNB Schlegel: Cannot rule out further interest increases

                    SNB Vice Chairman Martin Schlegel said yesterday, “we cannot rule out further interest increases at present,” even though inflation is forecast to fall back to 2.4% in 2023, and 1.8% in 2024.

                    “The maintenance of price stability has absolute priority for the SNB,” he added.

                    Meanwhile, Schlegel also expects a weak growth dynamic in the coming quarters.

                    ECB Panetta: Beyond February any unconditional guidance would depart from data-driven approach

                      ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said in an interview, “It was reasonable to increase rates in December and signal a similar step in February.”

                      “But beyond February any unconditional guidance – that is, guidance unrelated to the economic outlook – would depart from our data-driven approach.”

                      “Our December decisions were based on the projections available at that time. In March we will have new ones and should reassess the situation.”

                      “Inflation is still too high, but recent developments suggest that we can fend off the risks of second-round effects and bring down inflation by continuing to adjust our policy rates in a well-calibrated, non-mechanical way.”

                      Full interview here.

                      US PMI composite rose to 46.6, started 2023 on a disappointingly soft note

                        US PMI Manufacturing rose from 46.2 to 46.8 in January. PMI Services rose from 44.7 to 46.6. PMI Composite rose from 45.0 to 46.6.

                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                        “The US economy has started 2023 on a disappointingly soft note, with business activity contracting sharply again in January. Although moderating compared to December, the rate of decline is among the steepest seen since the global financial crisis, reflecting falling activity across both manufacturing and services.

                        “Jobs growth has also cooled, with January seeing a far weaker increase in payroll numbers than evident throughout much of last year, reflecting a hesitancy to expand capacity in the face of uncertain trading conditions in the months ahead. Although the survey saw a moderation in the rate of order book losses and an encouraging upturn in business sentiment, the overall level of confidence remains subdued by historical standards. Companies cite concerns over the ongoing impact of high prices and rising interest rates, as well as lingering worries over supply and labor shortages.

                        “The worry is that, not only has the survey indicated a downturn in economic activity at the start of the year, but the rate of input cost inflation has accelerated into the new year, linked in part to upward wage pressures, which could encourage a further aggressive tightening of Fed policy despite rising recession risks.”

                        Full release here.

                        UK PMI composite hit 24-month low, decline rate remains only modest

                          UK PMI Manufacturing rose from 45.3 to 46.7 in January, above expectation of 45.4. However, PMI Services dropped from 49.9 to 48.0, below expectation of 49.6, hitting a 24-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 49.0 to 47.8, a 24-month low too.

                          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Weaker than expected PMI numbers in January underscore the risk of the UK slipping into recession… There were some bright spots in the survey, including improved business expectations for the year ahead and a further cooling of inflationary pressures. The overall rate of decline indicated also remains only modest. But this is undeniably a disappointing start to the year for the UK.”

                          Full release here.

                          Eurozone PMI composite rose to 50.2, escaping recession but renewed contraction shouldn’t be ruled out

                            Eurozone PMI Manufacturing rose from 47.8 to 48.8 in January, above expectation of 48.1. PMI services rose from 49.8 to 50.7, above expectation of of 49.4, and back in expansion. PMI Composite rose from 49.3 to 50.2, a 7-month high.

                            Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                            “A steadying of the eurozone economy at the start of the years adds to evidence that the region might escape recession…. The region is by no means out of the woods yet, however, as demand continues to fall – merely dropping at a reduced rate… The case for higher interest rates is fuelled further by the upturn in employment growth recorded during the month and signs of higher wages driving the latest upturn in price pressures.

                            “A case for policy caution is supported by the survey merely indicating a stagnation of the eurozone economy, hinting that a renewed slide into contraction should not be ruled out as borrowing costs rise, but the survey undoubtedly brings welcome good news to suggest that any downturn is likely to be far less severe than previously feared and that a recession may well be avoided altogether.”

                            Full release here.

                            Germany Gfk consumer sentiment rose to -33.9, positive trend consolidating

                              Germany Gfk consumer sentiment for February rose 3.7 pts to -33.9, below expectation of -33.0. In January, Economic expectations improved from -10.3 to -0.6. Income expectations rose from -43.4 to -32.2. Propensity to buy dropped from -16.3 to -18.7.

                              “With the fourth increase in a row, the positive trend in consumer sentiment is consolidating. Even though the level is still very low, pessimism has eased recently”, explains GfK consumer expert Rolf Bürkl.

                              “Falling energy prices, such as for gasoline and heating oil, have ensured that consumer sentiment is less gloomy. Nevertheless, 2023 will remain difficult for the domestic economy. Private consumption will not be able to positively contribute to overall economic development this year. This is also signaled by the still very low level of the indicator.”

                              Full release here.

                              Japan PMI manufacturing unchanged at 48.9, services rose to 52.4

                                Japan PMI Manufacturing was unchanged at 48.9 in January, below expectation of 49.4. PMI Services rose from 51.5 to 52.4. PMI Composite rose form 49.7 to 50.8.

                                Laura Denman, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Japan’s private sector kicked off 2023 on a more positive note, as signalled by activity returning to growth territory in January. However, similar to trends recorded over much of the past six months, a divergence between the manufacturing and services sectors has remained.

                                Full release here.

                                Australia NAB business conditions fell to 12, confidence improved to -1

                                  Australia NAB Business Conditions fell from 20 to 12 in December. Trading conditions fell from 27 to 18. Profitability conditions fell from 19 to 12. Employment conditions also declined from 13 to 8. Business Confidence improved from -4 to -1.

                                  NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster said: “The main message from the December monthly survey is that the growth momentum has slowed significantly in late 2022 while price and purchase cost pressures have probably peaked”.

                                  “The gap between current business conditions and business confidence remains wider than usual though has narrowed. Ultimately while on average business reports still healthy activity at present, they don’t necessarily expect that to last.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  Australia PMI composite rose to 48.2, economy is not slowing sufficiently for RBA

                                    Australia PMI Manufacturing fell from 50.2 to 49.8 in January, a 32-month low. PMI Services rose from 47.3 to 48.3. PMI Composite rose from 47.5 to 48.2.

                                    Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank said:

                                    “Following eight consecutive rate hikes in 2022, the RBA Board will be meeting for the first time on 7 February. The latest PMI readings may raise the concern that the economy is not slowing sufficiently to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner…

                                    “Inflation pressures may abate somewhat but the risk for the RBA is that inflation remains stubbornly high well into 2023. This could maintain upward pressure on inflation expectations and wages growth. On this basis it seems premature for the RBA to pause the current tightening cycle….

                                    “We expect the RBA to hike the cash rate by 25bp in each of February and March before an extended pause. Further rate hikes may be required later in 2023 if the economy and inflation prove more resilient than current consensus forecasts suggest.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    NZ BusinessNZ services dropped to 52.1, marked a significant slowdown

                                      New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index dropped from 53.8 to 52.1 in December. Looking at some details, activity/sales dropped notably from 58.2 to 52.1. Employment fell from 51.8 to 47.1. New orders/business rose from 57.4 to 58.4. Stocks/inventories declined from 54.6 to 51.7. Supplier deliveries increased from 46.8 to 53.4.

                                      BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said that “December marked a significant slowdown in a short space of time for the PSI, although the maintained loftiness in New Orders/Business suggested there was still a lot of demand-side pressure at play”.

                                      Full release here.

                                      ECB Lagarde: Rates still have to rise significantly at a steady pace

                                        ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech that the “high inflation environment” is a big challenge facing Europe. And, that’s “the challenge that concerns me the most”.

                                        “We must bring inflation down. And we will deliver on this goal,” she emphasized. “We have made it clear that ECB interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive, and stay at those levels for as long as necessary.”

                                        “In other words, we will stay the course to ensure the timely return of inflation to our target.”

                                        Another challenge Lagarde named is to “best protect Europe’s critical interests… as the next chapter in the globalisation story is being written”. Europe must be “prepared for a future in which the global economy could fragment”, and “develop more our own sources of growth.”

                                        Full speech here.

                                        ECB Stournaras: Adjustment of interest rates needs to be more gradual

                                          ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said “in my opinion, the adjustment of interest rates needs to be more gradual, taking into account the slowdown in growth of the euro area economy.”

                                          “Given the high uncertainty, ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic turmoil, and volatility in the markets, it is very difficult to accurately predict the level at which interest rates need to be set,” he added.