Fed’s Daly keeps open mind on December, sees labor market still stable

    San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she supported last week’s rate cut and will approach the December meeting with “an open mind”. She believed it was “appropriate to take another bit off the policy rate,” while emphasizing that the central bank must now gauge whether the 50 basis points of easing delivered this year are sufficient to guard against further weakness in hiring.

    She noted that incoming data, including state-level jobless claims, suggest the labor market is not on a “precipice,” with conditions still stable despite slower momentum. Inflation, she said, is running near 3%, indicating progress but not yet a full return to target.

    Daly added that FOMC participants often hold diverse views ahead of meetings, but consensus tends to emerge as new data clarify the outlook.

    Fed’s Goolsbee cautions against front-loaded cuts, undecided with December

      Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he remains uneasy about the idea of front-loading rate cuts, citing persistent inflation pressures and an uncertain growth backdrop. Speaking with Yahoo Finance, Goolsbee admitted he is “not decided” going into the December meeting, emphasizing that inflation remains “above target for four and a half years and trending the wrong way.” .

      Goolsbee added that the threshold for cutting rates is now higher than at prior meetings. While he acknowledged that interest rates should ultimately fall alongside inflation, he expects them to settle “a fair bit below current levels” only once inflation shows sustained progress toward 2%. His stance aligns with other centrist officials who are reluctant to accelerate rate cuts amid mixed economic signals.

      On the labor market, Goolsbee described an unusual environment of “low hiring” and “low firing,” calling the hiring rate one of the economy’s weakest points. Despite slower job creation, he noted that broader employment indicators remain stable.

       

      US ISM manufacturing falls to 48.7, output and prices cool

        U.S. manufacturing activity weakened further in October, with ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.7 from 49.1, missing expectations of 49.4. The index signaled contraction for the eighth straight month as demand and output remained under pressure.

        New orders improved slightly from 48.9 to 49.4 but stayed below the 50 threshold. Production dropped sharply from 51.0 to 48.2 — a clear sign that momentum across the industrial sector remains soft.

        The employment component edged up to 46.0 from 45.3 but continued to signal job losses for a ninth consecutive month. Meanwhile, price pressures eased, with the prices-paid index falling from 61.9 to 58.0, suggesting that input costs are stabilizing even as demand remains sluggish.

        According to ISM, the latest PMI reading corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of about 1.8%.

        Full US ISM manufacturing release here.

        Fed’s Miran warns policy too tight amid credit market stress

          Fed Governor Stephen Miran cautioned that U.S. monetary policy may already be too restrictive, arguing that the neutral rate sits “quite a ways” below the current stance. Speaking with Bloomberg TV, Miran said his relatively sanguine view on inflation suggests there is “no reason for keeping policy as restrictive” .

          Miran also highlighted emerging strains in credit markets as a warning sign that policy may have overshot. He noted that “a series of seemingly uncorrelated credit problems” surfacing across sectors indicates financial stress that was previously masked by strong headline data.

          “The longer you keep policy restrictive, the more you run the risk that monetary policy itself causes a downturn,” Miran warned.

          UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.7, Budget may deepen structural strain

            UK manufacturing showed tentative signs of life in October, with the final S&P Global PMI rising to 49.7 from September’s 46.2. However, the improvement remains fragile as sluggish demand and stock adjustments drove much of the uptick rather than a sustained pickup in new orders.

            Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the October survey was encouraging but cautioned that the rebound “could prove short-lived.” Output growth largely stemmed from manufacturers working through backlogs and allowing inventories to build amid weak demand at home and abroad.

            Dobson added that upcoming fiscal developments could complicate the outlook further. Many firms worry that the forthcoming Budget may aggravate structural challenges left by last year’s policy tightening, weighing on confidence even as activity improves. Business optimism rose to an eight-month high but remains below its long-run average.

            Full UK PMI manufacturing final release here.

            Eurozone PMI manufacturing at 50.0, very delicate sprout of economic recovery

              Eurozone manufacturing activity barely expanded in October, with the final HCOB PMI coming in at 50.0, up marginally from 49.8 in September. National readings showed uneven trends: Greece and Spain led with readings above 52, while Germany (49.6) and Italy (49.9) hovered just below the neutral mark. France and Austria remained in contraction, both at 48.8.

              Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, described the improvement as a “very delicate sprout of economic recovery.” Output has risen for eight consecutive months, but new orders remain stagnant, suggesting that growth lacks momentum. The survey also showed that overall demand across the Eurozone remains subdued, with factories struggling to generate fresh business despite tentative output gains.

              The regional breakdown highlights persistent divergence. Germany’s factory sector remains fragile, France’s is in recession, and Italy’s shows only persistent weakness. Meanwhile, Spain’s moderate expansion stands out but offers limited offset. De la Rubia warned that France’s political tensions and renewed production slump are weighing on cross-border demand, acting as a drag on its trading partners and complicating hopes for a broader industrial rebound heading into year-end.

              Full Eurozone PMI manufacturing final release here.

              Swiss CPI slows to 0.1% yoy in October, broad decline in prices

                Swiss inflation cooled further in October, with headline CPI slipping -0.3% mom — weaker than expectations of -0.1% mom. Annual inflation eased to just 0.1% yoy from 0.2% yoy, undershooting forecasts of 0.3% yoy. The data confirmed that price pressures remain virtually absent.

                Core inflation also weakened notably, falling -0.2% mom and slowing to 0.5% yoy from 0.7% yoy. Both domestic and imported prices fell during the month, by -0.2% mom and -0.5% mom respectively, suggesting broad-based softness. The sharper decline in imported prices reflects the strong franc’s continued dampening effect on imported goods and energy costs, while domestic components also showed only marginal resilience.

                Full Swiss CPI release here.

                Bitcoin correction to extend after snapping “Uptober” streak

                  Bitcoin softened in Monday’s Asian session, with sellers gradually regaining control after October ended on a sour note for the bulls. The cryptocurrency lost roughly 5% last month — its first negative “Uptober” in seven years — despite briefly printing a new record high above 126,000.

                  Last week’s attempted rebound stalled as the Fed’s latest decision delivered a hawkish twist. The 25-bp rate cut came with Chair Powell warning that another reduction in December was “not a foregone conclusion,” a remark that revived Dollar strength and curbed appetite for risk assets, including crypto.

                  Some optimists argue that the traditional October crypto rally may simply be delayed rather than cancelled, but current technical signals are not supporting that view.

                  The consolidation pattern from 101,896 appears to have completed in three waves up to 116,405, suggesting that the decline from 126,289 is ready to resume. A drop through 106,230 would confirm renewed downside momentum, opening a move toward 101,896 initially.

                  Decisive break below 101,896 would extend losses toward the 55 W EMA (now at 98,964) — the line in the sand for preserving the longer-term uptrend from 15,452 (2022 low).

                   

                  China RatingDog PMI manufacturing falls to 50.6; export orders and prices decline

                    China’s manufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in October, with the RatingDog PMI easing to 50.6 from 51.2, missing expectations of 50.9. The moderation reflects weaker demand momentum and growing headwinds from global trade tensions, which weighed on both output and new export orders.

                    According to RatingDog founder Yao Yu, both demand and production expansion softened. Export orders fell “sharply into contraction territory” as heightened trade uncertainty curbed overseas demand. Production growth also cooled, though sub-indices remained in expansion territory. Purchasing activity “slowed significantly”, signaling greater caution among manufacturers heading into year-end.

                    Price pressures was a drag on profits, as raw material costs rose while finished goods prices fell. Exporters reduced selling prices for the first time since April to stay competitive amid fragile external demand. Still, the survey offered a bright spot: the employment index returned to expansion for the first time since March, reaching its highest level since August 2023.

                    Full China’s RatingDog PMI Manufacturing release here.

                    OPEC+ holds Off Q1 increases after Dec hike; WTI eyes rebound toward 65

                      Oil prices edged higher in Monday’s Asian session as traders welcomed OPEC+’s decision to keep production steady through the first quarter of 2026. The alliance agreed on Sunday to raise December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day — matching the pace set for October and November — but to pause further increases from January to March. The move signals a shift from aggressive supply expansion toward a more cautious approach amid rising uncertainty in global demand and sanctions-related disruptions.

                      Since April, OPEC+ has raised total output targets by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day, about 2.7% of global supply, but began slowing the pace in October as forecasts pointed to a potential oversupply heading into winter. Sanctions on Russian producers have added fresh uncertainty to the outlook, with Moscow now facing tighter U.S. and U.K. restrictions on Rosneft and Lukoil. These measures could cap Russia’s ability to increase exports.

                      By opting for a pause, the group is effectively protecting prices and projecting unity at a time when market confidence is fragile. The decision also reflects seasonal realities — January through March is typically the weakest quarter for global oil demand — giving the alliance time to assess the full impact of sanctions and global inventory trends before deciding on its next steps.

                      Technically, WTI crude’s decline from 78.87 appears to have completed at 56.44, holding comfortably above 55.20 (2025 low). The structure suggests that the drop was corrective, as the second leg of the pattern from 55.20.

                      The is room for extended rebound while 59.96 support holds. Break above 62.99 would target the 38.2% retracement of 78.87 to 56.44 to 65.00.

                      Failure to hold above 59.96, however, would imply renewed downside momentum and the risk of another test of the 55.20 zone before forming a lasting bottom.

                      Fed’s Schmi: Cutting now won’t fix labor issues, may damage credibility

                        Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid offered a firm defense of his decision to oppose this week’s quarter-point rate cut, arguing that the U.S. economy remains resilient and inflation too high to justify further policy easing.

                        In a statement, Schmid said the labor market is “largely in balance”, the economy continues to show “momentum,” and policy remains “only modestly restrictive.” On that basis, he judged it appropriate to hold rates steady at this week’s meeting.

                        Schmid emphasized that monetary policy should continue to “lean against demand growth” to give supply room to expand and relieve price pressures.

                        The Kansas City Fed chief also highlighted the uneven effects of monetary policy on the Fed’s dual mandate. He noted that current labor market stresses are more structural, driven by technology and demographics, rather than cyclical weakness that rate cuts could effectively address. As such, he questioned the utility of further easing to support employment at this stage.

                        On the other hand, Schmid warned that even small rate reductions could have “longer-lasting effects on inflation” if markets begin to doubt the Fed’s commitment to its 2% target.

                        Full statement of Fed’s Schmid here.

                        Canada GDP shrinks -0.3% mom in August, broad-based weakness offsets September rebound hopes

                          Canada’s economy contracted -0.3% mom in August, a much steeper decline than the expected flat reading, highlighting broad-based weakness across both goods and services sectors.

                          According to Statistics Canada, goods-producing industries fell -0.6%, marking the fifth contraction this year. Services-producing industries slipped -0.1%, the first decline in six months. The data reinforce concerns that Canada’s growth momentum remains fragile amid trade headwinds and domestic softness.

                          Looking ahead, advance estimates suggest GDP rose 0.1% mom in September, offering a modest sign of stabilization. Gains in finance, insurance, mining, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing were partly offset by declines in wholesale and retail trade.

                          Full Canada’s GDP release here.

                          Eurozone CPI eases to 2.1%, but core holds firm at 2.4%

                            Eurozone inflation slowed slightly in October, though underlying price pressures remained sticky. According to the flash estimate, headline CPI edged down to 2.1% yoy from 2.2%, in line with expectations. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, held steady at 2.4%, surprising on the upside compared with forecasts of 2.3%.

                            A closer look at the breakdown shows services inflation rose to 3.4% from 3.2%, confirming that the most persistent source of price pressure continues to come from the labor-intensive service sector. Meanwhile, food, alcohol and tobacco inflation eased to 2.5%, non-energy industrial goods slowed to 0.6%, and energy prices fell -1.0%, marking a deeper decline than September’s -0.4%.

                            Full Eurozone CPI flash release here.

                            China NBS Manufacturing PMI falls to 49 in October, contraction deepens

                              China’s official manufacturing PMI fell from 49.8 to 49.0 in October, missing expectations of 49.7 and marking the lowest reading in six months. The sector has now been in contraction since April. The new orders index dropped to 48.8 from 49.7, while the production sub-index declined sharply to 49.7 from 51.9, pointing to a broad slowdown in both output and demand.

                              NBS chief statistician Huo Lihui attributed the weaker reading to “the early release of some demand before the National Day holiday” and a “more complex international environment” that continues to weigh on activity.

                              Outside the factory sector, Non-Manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 50.1 from 50.0, though it also missed forecasts of 50.2. As a result, the Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, slipped to 50.0 from 50.6.

                              Japan’s industrial production rises 2.2% mom in September, indecisive fluctuation continues

                                Japan’s industrial production rose 2.2% mom in September, beating expectations of 1.6% and marking the first increase in three months. However, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry kept its assessment unchanged, describing output as “fluctuating indecisively,” highlighting that the recovery remains fragile.

                                According to METI’s survey, manufacturers expect production to grow 1.9% mom in October but shrink -0.9% in November, pointing to continued short-term volatility.

                                Gains in September were broad-based, with 13 of 15 industrial sectors expanding. Notably, production machinery output surged 6.2% mom, driven by strong shipments of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China and Taiwan. In contrast, transport equipment (excluding motor vehicles) and steel and non-ferrous metals recorded modest declines.

                                Meanwhile, retail sales rose 0.5% yoy, missing expectations of 0.7%, reflecting soft consumer demand despite improving wage and price trends.

                                Japan’s Tokyo core CPI surges to 2.8%, BoJ hike timing still unclear

                                  Japan’s Tokyo CPI figures for October showed broad-based acceleration in inflation, adding to pressure on the BoJ but stopping short of forcing an immediate policy move. Core CPI (excluding fresh food) climbed from 2.5% to 2.8% yoy, beating expectations of 2.6%. Core-core measure (excluding fresh food and energy) matched that rise, also hitting 2.8%, while headline inflation accelerated from 2.5% to 2.8%.

                                  The increase was driven partly by a 38.4% surge in rice prices and the expiration of water-fee subsidies, which lifted utility costs. Food inflation, excluding fresh items, remained high at 6.7%, though slightly slower than September’s 6.9%. Meanwhile, services inflation was relatively steady at 1.6%, well below the 4.1% gain in goods prices. The mix suggests cost pressures are persistent but not yet translating into sustained demand-led inflation.

                                  At its meeting yesterday, the BoJ left the policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the likelihood of the Bank’s baseline projection materializing had “heightened somewhat,” but reiterated that the BoJ wants to await “a bit more data” before considering another rate hike. He emphasized the need to observe whether firms continue to raise wages in response to higher U.S. tariffs before committing to further tightening. Overall, the latest inflation data and BoJ remarks reinforce expectations that the next rate hike remains a coin toss between December and January.

                                  ECB holds at 2.00%, not pre-committing to any rate path

                                    The ECB kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2.00%, in line with expectations, and signaled no change in its cautious, data-dependent approach. Policymakers reaffirmed that inflation remains close to the 2% medium-term target, with the Governing Council’s assessment of the outlook “broadly unchanged.”

                                    In its statement, the ECB noted that the Eurozone economy continues to grow despite a difficult global backdrop. It cited the robust labor market, solid private sector balance sheets, and the supportive effects of past rate cuts as key “sources of resilience”. However, the Bank acknowledged that the outlook remains uncertain, highlighting persistent global trade disputes and geopolitical risks as ongoing headwinds.

                                    The Governing Council reiterated that future policy decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis and guided strictly by incoming data. ECB emphasized that it is “not pre-committing to a particular rate path.”

                                    Full ECB statement here.

                                    Eurozone GDP beats expectations with 0.2% growth in Q3

                                      The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.2% qoq in Q3, outpacing expectations of a 0.1% increase. EU GDP rose 0.3% qoq, marking a modest but welcome pickup in growth momentum. Compared with the same period last year, seasonally adjusted GDP grew 1.3% yoy in the Eurozone and 1.5% across the EU.

                                      Among member states, performance was uneven but generally positive. Sweden led the bloc with a robust 1.1% quarterly increase, followed by Portugal (+0.8%) and Czechia (+0.7%). In contrast, Lithuania (-0.2%), Ireland, and Finland (both -0.1%) saw mild contractions. The data show that 14 countries posted positive year-on-year growth, with only one economy contracting.

                                      Full Eurozone Q3 GDP release here.

                                      Swiss KOF climbs to 101.3, outlook brightens

                                        Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer rose more than expected in October, advancing from 98.0 to 101.3 against forecasts of 99.0. The index’s move above the 100-threshold suggests that short-term prospects are now slightly above the long-term average, hinting at a firmer growth backdrop heading into year-end.

                                        The KOF Institute noted that most indicator groups contributed positively to the uptick. In particular, manufacturing, financial and insurance services, and other service industries all displayed a more favorable outlook. However, the report pointed out a setback in private consumption, underscoring that household spending remains a relative weak spot even as business sentiment strengthens.

                                        Full Swiss KOF release here.

                                        BoJ holds at 0.50%, keeps gradual tightening bias intact

                                          The BoJ left its overnight call rate unchanged at 0.50% as widely expected. The decision came by a 7–2 vote, with Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura again dissenting in favor of a 25bps rate hike to move policy a little closer to neutral. The repeat split highlights the growing divergence within the board as policymakers debate how quickly to normalize monetary conditions.

                                          In its quarterly Outlook Report, the BoJ made only marginal revisions to its forecasts, signaling that the economic and inflation outlook remains broadly stable. The bank raised its fiscal 2025 GDP forecast slightly from 0.6% to 0.7%, while projections for 2026 and 2027 were left unchanged at 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively.

                                          On prices, the BoJ kept its core CPI forecast at 2.7% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Core-core CPI (excluding both fresh food and energy) was nudged higher to 2.0% in 2026 from 1.9%, with other years unchanged (2026 at 2.8% and 2027 at 2.0%). The bank reiterated that underlying inflation is expected to reach 2% in the latter half of the projection period through March 2027, retaining language from July that risks to the inflation outlook remain “roughly balanced.”

                                          The BoJ also reiterated that it would continue to raise its policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary support “in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices.”

                                          Full BoJ Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices here.