Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8182; (P) 0.8265; (R1) 0.8312; More….

Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 0.8187 will resume the fall from 0.8475 to retest 0.8038 low. On the upside, above 0.8346 will bring stronger rise to 0.8475. Firm break there will extend the corrective pattern from 0.8038 with another rising leg.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8713) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

Market sentiment took another bearish turn today following renewed rhetoric from US President Donald Trump, who accused China of having "totally violated" its preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. The comments, delivered via social media, were echoed by Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in a CNBC interview, where he expressed concern over China's delayed compliance. Greer emphasized that while the US had fulfilled its commitments under the temporary trade deal, China was "slow rolling" its response—raising fears that tensions between the two economic powers may be re-escalating.

These remarks followed comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just a day earlier, who admitted that US-China trade talks were “a bit stalled,” though he hinted at possible high-level engagement in the coming weeks. However, the combined messaging from senior officials now points to growing frustration in Washington, increasing the risk of a renewed tariff cycle. That's something the markets are highly sensitive to, especially with ongoing legal uncertainty surrounding the court-blocked reciprocal tariffs and their pending appeal.

On the macro front, the US April core PCE price index ticked down to 2.5% year-on-year, reaffirming that disinflation is progressing, albeit slowly. With inflation trending lower but global uncertainty mounting, Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady in the near term. Fed funds futures currently price in a 95% chance of a hold at the June FOMC meeting and a 73% chance of another hold in July. The soft inflation reading does little to shift the central bank’s cautious stance, especially as trade risks remain firmly in focus.

In the currency markets, Dollar is heading into the final house of the trading week as the strongest performer, followed by Swiss Franc and Euro. On the weaker end, Aussie struggles at the bottom, trailed by Yen and Loonie. Kiwi and Sterling are holding in the middle. However, with sentiment remaining fragile and trade headlines still in play, positioning could shift quickly before the weekly close.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.55%. DAX is up 0.72%. CAC is up 0.09%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.21 at 4.672. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.019 at 2.529. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -1.22%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.20%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.47%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.57%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.015 to 1.505.

US core PCE inflation cools to 2.5%, income surges

US headline PCE price index rose 0.1% mom in April, in line with expectations, while annual inflation slipped from 2.3% yoy to 2.1% yoy, below the consensus of 2.2%.

Core PCE, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, also rose 0.1% mom and slowed from 2.6% yoy to 2.5% yoy, matching expectations. The data supports the view that disinflation remains intact, though the pace of moderation remains modest.

At the same time, personal income data surprised to the upside, jumping 0.8% mom or USD 210.1B, well above the expected 0.3% mom. Personal spending rose a more modest 0.2% mom, matching forecasts.

Canada GDP expands 0.1% mom in March, another 0.1% mom in April

Canada’s GDP grew by 0.1% mom in March, in line with market expectations. Strength in goods-producing industries continued to support overall output. The sector expanded by 0.2%, marking its second lead contribution in the past three months.

Services-producing industries also edged higher by 0.1%. In total, 9 out of 20 sectors posted growth.

Looking ahead, preliminary data from Statistics Canada suggests another 0.1% increase in real GDP for April.

ECB’s Panetta signals diminished room for further rate cuts

Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said today that while the central bank has made meaningful progress in easing monetary policy, bringing the deposit rate down from 4% to 2.25%, "the room for further rate cuts has naturally diminished".

"However, the economic outlook remains weak, and trade tensions could lead to a deterioration," he added. "It will be essential to maintain a pragmatic and flexible approach, considering liquidity conditions and the signals coming from financial and credit markets."

Panetta also highlighted the high-stakes nature of ongoing trade talks between the EU and the US, warning that even tensions are likely to have a “significant impact” on the region’s economy.

BoE’s Taylor: Global headwinds justify lower monetary policy path

BoE MPC member Alan Taylor reinforced his dovish position in an interview with the Financial Times, highlighting growing downside risks to the UK economy from global developments.

Taylor, who alongside Swati Dhingra voted for a larger 50bps rate cut in May, argued that monetary policy should be on a “lower policy path” given the accumulating headwinds.

He specifically pointed to impact of Trump’s tariffs on imports would “be building up over the rest of this year in terms of trade diversion and drag on growth”.

While UK inflation unexpectedly jumped to 3.5% in April, Taylor downplayed the significance of the rise, attributing it to "one-time tax and administered price changes."

Swiss KOF rises to 98.5, but growth outlook remains subdued

Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer edged up to 98.5 in May from 97.1, marking a modest improvement in economic sentiment. While the uptick is a positive signal, the barometer remains below its long-term average, suggesting that the broader outlook for the Swiss economy "remains subdued".

According to the KOF, the manufacturing sector showed notable strength, contributing to the overall improvement. However, indicators tied to foreign demand and private consumption remain under pressure, highlighting the ongoing drag from weak external conditions and cautious domestic spending.

Japan's industrial production falls -0.9% mom in April, but May rebound expected

Japan's industrial production fell by -0.9% mom in April, a milder decline than the expected -1.4%. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its view that production "fluctuates indecisively," reflecting ongoing uncertainty, particularly around global trade developments.

While the ministry said the impact of US tariffs was limited in April, some firms have voiced concern about the manufacturing outlook as policy risks persist.

The breakdown of the data shows a mixed picture: six of 15 industrial sectors saw declines, including production machinery, fabricated metals, and transport equipment excluding motor vehicles. However, eight sectors recorded gains, with electronic parts and business-oriented machinery showing notable strength.

Manufacturers surveyed expect a sharp 9.0% rebound in May, followed by a -3.4% dip in June.

Also released, Japan's retail sales grew by a stronger-than-expected 3.3% yoy in April, outpacing the consensus of 2.9% yoy. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady at 2.5%.

Tokyo core inflation accelerates to 3.6%, driven by food and services costs

Tokyo's core CPI (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 3.6% yoy in May, up from 3.4% yoy and above market expectations of 3.5% yoy, marking the fastest pace since January 2023. This marks the third consecutive year that core inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.

While headline CPI ticked down slightly from 3.5% yoy to 3.4% yoy, the underlying core-core measure (excluding food and energy) also edged up fro 2.0% yoy to 2.1% yoy, suggesting broad-based inflation persistence.

The surge in non-fresh food prices, up 6.9% yoy, remains a dominant driver—highlighted by a staggering 93.2% yoy jump in rice prices.

Another notable development is the uptick in services inflation, which climbed to 2.2% yoy from 2.0% yoy , indicating that businesses are beginning to pass on higher labor costs.

Australia retail sales down -0.1% mom in April, weighed by weak clothing demand

Australia’s retail sales turnover unexpectedly declined by -0.1% mom in April, missing expectations for a 0.3% mom rise. On an annual basis, sales were up 3.8% compared to April 2024/

The Australian Bureau of Statistics noted that the decline was driven primarily by reduced spending on clothing. The weakness was partly offset by a rebound in Queensland, where businesses recovered from disruptions caused by ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred in March.

RBNZ's Silk: Data to guide timing and need for further cuts

RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk said that interest rates are currently within the estimated neutral band of 2.5% to 3.5%.

She noted that the full impact of previous easing has yet to filter through the economy, making any future adjustments highly dependent on incoming data.

The OCR track indicates "whatever we do is going to be data-dependent, and then we will be looking to the data to help us to decide when or if we cut further from here," she added.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8182; (P) 0.8265; (R1) 0.8312; More….

Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 0.8187 will resume the fall from 0.8475 to retest 0.8038 low. On the upside, above 0.8346 will bring stronger rise to 0.8475. Firm break there will extend the corrective pattern from 0.8038 with another rising leg.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8713) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

Canada’s GDP grew by 0.1% mom in March, in line with market expectations. Strength in goods-producing industries continued to support overall output. The sector expanded by 0.2%, marking its second lead contribution in the past three months.

Services-producing industries also edged higher by 0.1%. In total, 9 out of 20 sectors posted growth.

Looking ahead, preliminary data from Statistics Canada suggests another 0.1% increase in real GDP for April.

Full Canada's GDP release here.

US headline PCE price index rose 0.1% mom in April, in line with expectations, while annual inflation slipped from 2.3% yoy to 2.1% yoy, below the consensus of 2.2%.

Core PCE, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, also rose 0.1% mom and slowed from 2.6% yoy to 2.5% yoy, matching expectations. The data supports the view that disinflation remains intact, though the pace of moderation remains modest.

At the same time, personal income data surprised to the upside, jumping 0.8% mom or USD 210.1B, well above the expected 0.3% mom. Personal spending rose a more modest 0.2% mom, matching forecasts.

Full US personal income and outlays release here.

The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6415, down 0.42% on the day.

Australian retail sales show unexpected decline

Australia's retail sales contracted in April by 0.1% m/m, missing the market estimate of 0.3%, which was also the March reading. This was the first decline since December, weighed by declines in clothing and department store spending. Annually, retail sales rose 3.8%, compared to 4.3% in March.

The weak retail sales report points to a nervous Austrlian consumer and will support the case for further rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered rates by a quarter-point to 3.85% last week, only the second rate cut this year. The markets expect the Reserve Bank to be more aggressive and have priced in a cut of at least 75 basis points before the end of the year, which would lower the cash rate to around 3%.

Consumer spending and confidence remain weak and further rate cuts would boost consumption. However, US President Trump's zig-zag tariff policy has created huge uncertainty, making it difficult for the RBA to chart a rate path.

The US has imposed 10% tariffs on Australian products but even more concerning is the US-China trade war. The two countries agreed earlier this month to dramatically lower the tariff rates on each other but the agreement is only for 90 days. China is Australia's largest trading partner and a downturn in China's economy would damage Australia's export-reliant economy.

Federal court reinstates Trump's tariffs

The tariffs are winding their way through the US courts. A trade court panel ruled this week that most of Trump's tariffs were illegal but on Thursday, an appeals court granted the Trump administration a temporary pause, which keeps the tariffs in effect. The legal fight over the tariffs could go all the way to the Supreme Court and is causing even more uncertainty in the financial markets.

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6434 and is testing 0.6421. Next, there is support at 0.6402
• There is resistance at 0.6453 and 0.6466

AUDUSD 4-Hour Chart, May 30, 2025

Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of AUDJPY forex pair published in members area of the website. The pair has recently given us a 3 waves bounce that completed precisely at the equal legs area as we expected. In the following text, we’ll explain the Elliott Wave analysis and present target areas.

AUDJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 05.28.2025

EURUSD is currently forming a three-wave pullback against the95.63 peak, unfolding as a Zig Zag pattern — (a)-(b)-(c). Our members are aware that we get the potential reversal area by measuring the Equal Legs zone, (a)-(b) . This zone comes at 93.65-94.61 area. We expect sellers to emerge within this region and anticipate a continuation of the decline toward new lows ideally.

AUDJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 05.28.2025

The pair found sellers as expected in the Equal Legs area and has delivered a decent decline so far. We would now like to see a break below the May 23rd low to confirm that the next leg lower is in place. In that case, further downside extension would be expected, ideally targeting the 89.86 area.

Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of EURUSD forex pair published in members area of the website. As our members know, we are long in the pair, as explained in our previous technical article . The pair has recently given us pull back against the 1.10625 low and found the buyers precisely at the equal legs area as we expected. In the following text, we’ll explain the Elliott Wave analysis and present target areas.

EURUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 05.28.2025

EURUSD is currently forming a three-wave pullback against the 1.10625 low. The correction appears incomplete and is unfolding as a double three pattern — (w)-(x)-(y). Our members are aware that we can pinpoint the potential reversal area by measuring the Equal Legs zone, where wave (y) is related to wave (w). This zone aligns with the 1.1215 area. We expect buyers to emerge within this region and anticipate a continuation of the rally.

EURUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 05.29.2025

The pair has reached our target area. While there is still a possibility of another short-term low within this zone, we do not recommend selling. The minimum requirements for a completed structure are already in place, and a reversal to the upside could occur at any moment.

EURUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 05.30.2025

The pair found buyers as expected in the Equal Legs area and has delivered a decent rally so far. We now look for a break above the May 26th peak to confirm a further extension to the upside toward the 1.1558 area.

The US dollar reinforced the importance of support, bouncing early in the week from levels near 98.7. The dollar has been bought out of this area for the past seven weeks, preventing the dollar from rewriting three-year lows. The dollar was oversold, and we regarded the rise as a technical bounce.

The 50-day moving average acted as a stop to the rebound, emphasising its technical nature. Fundamentally, the de-escalation of the US trade conflict with the European Union stopped the ‘sell America’ trade. The Court’s ruling on the illegality of reciprocal tariffs lifted USD to the highs of the previous ten days. Lower tariffs reduce the risks of the US economy stagflation, as fiscal stimulus will boost GDP, and inflation will remain under Fed control. This scenario could still materialise, restoring interest in the depreciating US dollar and lagging equities.

But so far, the market has not gone above the 50-day moving average, bumping up against an appeals court decision to put tariffs back in place for the duration of the litigation. History suggests that a further renewal of the lows usually follows a rebound after a strong dollar decline. Therefore, one should be prepared for further drawdown of the dollar index to 95 (consolidation of early 2022) or even 89-90 (pivot area of 2018 and 2021).
More decline may follow after the recent technical rebound

We can only consider a failure to 80, which was last seen in 2014, if serious problems in the US economy force the Fed to ease rates combined with optimism in other parts of the world, which would be a repeat of the situation of the early 2000s.

That said, we remain fearful of the unlikely scenario of selling pressure on US bonds due to distrust in Washington’s fiscal policy. We are much more optimistic about the chances of a managed USD weakening due to a looser Fed policy than its peers, simultaneously depreciating nominal debt and boosting economic growth due to less traction in savings.

Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said today that while the central bank has made meaningful progress in easing monetary policy, bringing the deposit rate down from 4% to 2.25%, "the room for further rate cuts has naturally diminished".

"However, the economic outlook remains weak, and trade tensions could lead to a deterioration," he added. "It will be essential to maintain a pragmatic and flexible approach, considering liquidity conditions and the signals coming from financial and credit markets."

Panetta also highlighted the high-stakes nature of ongoing trade talks between the EU and the US, warning that even tensions are likely to have a “significant impact” on the region’s economy.

Market Picture

Market capitalisation is down 2.2% today and more than 4.6% in seven days to $3.34 trillion. Bitcoin’s fluctuations are creating briefly higher volatility in older altcoins: BTC’s 1.7% decline contrasts with ETH’s 3.5% drop, XRP’s 4% weakening, SOL’s 4.6% decline and Doge’s 8.5% pullback.

Bitcoin was down to $104.7K on Friday morning, stabilising at $106.0K by the start of active European trading, showing a fourth day of declines. Technically, a pullback down to $103K would fit into a technical correction. Even a failure to $99K would formally satisfy the Fibonacci retracement pattern. However, even 103 looks like a strong enough local support for the coming days.

The successful Telegram bond offering allowed TON to swim against the market, adding 0.5% in one day and 5% in seven days to $3.11. The rebound from multi-month highs has no significant obstacles until $4.20, where the early April peak and the 200-day moving average combine.

News Background

Volmex warns of a possible increase in Bitcoin’s price on 30 May, when $10.1 bn worth of BTC options will expire on the Deribit platform.

Coindesk noted that wallet owners with balances exceeding 10,000 BTC have shifted from buying to selling, while investors with smaller positions continue to accumulate BTC. In recent days, whales have started depositing Bitcoins back into exchange accounts, which is usually associated with preparing for sales.

BTC is benefiting from a capital flight from the gold market. Over the past five weeks, precious metal-focused specialised exchange-traded funds have lost around $2.8bn. In contrast, bitcoin-ETFs have raised $9bn over the same period.

The derivatives market is showing increasing leverage among investors. Since April, the volume of open interest in Bitcoin futures has increased by 51%, while options have increased by 126%.

Two companies, StablR and Oobit, backed by Tether, introduced stablecoins in Europe that are compliant with the EU’s Cryptocurrency Regulation Act (MiCA). The launch follows the withdrawal of the issuer of the ‘stablecoin’ USDT from the European market due to non-compliance with the MiCA law.