Sample Category Title

US PPI rose 0.1% mom in May, below expectation of 0.2% mom. PPI services rose 0.1% mom, while PPI goods rose 0.2% mom. PPI less food, energy and trade services rose 0.1% mom.

For the 12 months period, PPI rose from 2.5% yoy to 2.6% yoy, matched expectations. PPI less food, energy and trade services rose 2.7% yoy.

Full US PPI release here.

The dollar index remains firmly in red for the second consecutive day, under increased pressure on growing prospects of Fed rate cuts (following softer than expected inflation in May) and persisting uncertainty over tariff saga.

Fresh acceleration on Thursday pushed the dollar below 98 mark for the first time in seven weeks and increased pressure on key support at 97.65 (2025 low of Apr 21, the lowest since March 2022/ near bear channel lower boundary), violation of which signal an end of broader consolidation and generate signal of continuation of larger downtrend from 110.00 (Jan 13 peak).

Firm break of 97.65 pivot to expose targets at 96.06 (Fibo 138.2% projection of descend from 101.80) and 95.18 (Fibo 76.4% retracement of 89.15/114.72 (2021/2022 uptrend).

Res: 98.49; 98.80; 99.31; 99.72.
Sup: 97.65; 97.50; 96.67; 96.06.

ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel signaled today that the central bank's monetary easing cycle is “coming to an end,” citing stable medium-term inflation forecasts and improving macroeconomic conditions.

Speaking with notable confidence, Schnabel downplayed the expected dip in inflation—projected at just 1.6% in 2026—as a "temporary deviation" caused by energy base effects and a stronger euro.

Schnabel painted a relatively constructive picture of the Eurozone economy, stating that growth remains "broadly stable" even as global trade tensions intensify. Private consumption continues to provide a key pillar of support, while both manufacturing and construction sectors are showing signs of recovery. She also highlighted that "Additional defense and infrastructure spending counteract tariff shock on growth".

In her view, these structural shifts, combined with a resilient Euro and outperforming equity markets, reflect a “new European growth narrative” that could elevate the region’s economic standing.

Still, Schnabel acknowledged the risks posed by escalating trade tensions, particularly in the form of inflation volatility and financial market uncertainty. She warned that tariffs can be amplified through global value chains, posing upside risks to inflation. At the same time weaponisation of raw materials threatens to further strain supply chains.

Full presentation slides of ECB's Schnabel here.

Gold hit one-week high early Thursday, in extension of Wednesday’s nearly 1% advance when gold price was inflated by softer than expected US inflation numbers that boosted bets for Fed rate cuts and weakened dollar.

Escalation in geopolitics after Israel threatened of attacking Iran caused fresh rally into security and lifted gold price away from critical $3000 support zone, shifting near term focus to the upside.

Quick pullback from new high ($3377) reached $3338 low but repeatedly closed above important Fibo support at $3345 (38.2% of $3293/$3377 upleg, reinforced by rising 200HMA) on hourly chart.

Subsequent strong bounce adds to hopes that pullback was temporary and positioning for fresh push higher as technical picture on hourly chart is predominantly bullish.

Fresh recovery needs a clear break above cracked $3360 zone (Fibo 61.8% of $3377/$3338 bear-leg) to verify positive signal.

Regain of session high $3377 to open way for another attack at $3400 zone (psychological / June 6 peak), violation of which to further improve the picture on daily chart and expose key target at $3500 (new record high).

Caution on dip below 20HMA ($3355) that would make the downside more vulnerable and keep lower triggers at $3340 zone and $3327 (trendline support) at increased risk.

Res: 3377; 3400; 3410; 3437.
Sup: 3345; 3338; 3327; 3310.

Market Picture

The crypto market has lost 1.6% of its capitalisation over the past 24 hours to $3.39 trillion. Technically, this is a retreat from previous highs, which provided resistance. The sell-off was triggered by pressure on risky assets due to renewed tensions in the Middle East. However, this should be seen as a temporary setback.

Bitcoin fell below $108K, once again encountering a sell-off after touching $110K. This downward move caused a broad group of altcoins to give back some of their recent gains. Nevertheless, the sell-off appears to be limited and technical for now. The dollar’s proximity to multi-year lows reinforces the bullish sentiment for the near term.

News Background

Bitcoin Core developers will remove the default limit on the amount of OP_RETURN data published in the v30 client release scheduled for October. The actual limit will be a block size of 4 MB.

The Ethereum Foundation team has published its first report as part of the Trillion Dollar Security initiative. Researchers have identified six key areas that require significant improvements to ensure the network’s security in the future.

According to Coinbase, the value of tokenised RWA assets has grown 245 times over the past five years to $21 billion. Private loans on the blockchain (61%) and US government bonds (30%) accounted for more than 90% of the RWA market share.

Polygon co-founder Sandeep Nailwal has taken full control of the Polygon Foundation (PF) as its first CEO and presented changes to the project’s strategic priorities.

According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, the SEC could approve spot ETFs based on a basket of cryptocurrencies as early as July and then decide on Solana-based funds. Another Bloomberg analyst, James Seyffart, does not expect a decision from the SEC before early October.

Comments from two ECB Governing Council members today reinforced a cautious stance as the easing cycle appears to have reached a natural pause, following eight consecutive rate cuts.

French member Francois Villeroy de Galhau emphasized flexibility, telling Franceinfo radio that future policy will depend on how inflation evolves, stressing a preference for “pragmatism and agility.”

Lithuanian member Gediminas Šimkus echoed a similar tone, stating that policy has now reached a “neutral level”. It is critical for ECB to maintain the freedom, "not to commit to one direction or another". He warned of growing uncertainty, particularly around upcoming US trade decisions as the 90-day tariff truce nears expiry on July 9.

As the chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows, price movements in June continue to form an upward trend (highlighted in blue).

The bullish momentum is being supported by:

→ News of a potential trade agreement between the United States and China;

→ The latest inflation report. Data released yesterday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed from 0.2% to 0.1% month-on-month.

President Donald Trump described the inflation figures as “excellent” and said that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by a full percentage point. In his view, this would stimulate the economy — and serve as another bullish driver.

However, as illustrated by the red arrow, the index pulled back yesterday from its highest level in three and a half months, falling towards the lower boundary of the channel. This decline was triggered by concerning developments in the Middle East. According to media reports, the US is preparing a partial evacuation of its embassy in Iraq, following statements by a senior Iranian official that Tehran may strike US bases in the region if nuclear talks with Washington fail.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart

Currently, the price remains near the lower boundary of the ascending channel, reinforced by the psychologically significant 6,000-point level.

However, note that line Q — which divides the lower half of the channel into two quarters — has flipped from support to resistance (as indicated by black arrows). This suggests increasing bearish pressure, and there is a possibility that sellers may soon attempt to push the price below the channel support.

Be prepared for potential spikes in volatility on the E-Mini S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart as markets await the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) at 15:30 GMT+3 today.

Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 195.38; (P) 195.81; (R1) 196.33; More...

GBP/JPY is extending the consolidation pattern from 196.38 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is in favor as long as 191.86 support holds. Firm break of 196.38 will resume whole rally from 184.35 to 199.79 resistance, and possibly further to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.52; (P) 165.98; (R1) 166.57; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the upside, as rise from 154.77 is in progress. Next target is 166.67 resistance, and then 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.77 at 167.38. On the downside, below 164.53 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to up trend from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8461; (P) 0.8475; (R1) 0.8494; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside as rebound from 0.8354 extends higher today. Sustained break there will target to 61.8% retracement at 0.8591, even still as a corrective move. On the downside, though, break of 0.8413 will bring retest of 0.8354 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern. Nevertheless, there is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.