Sample Category Title

The USD/JPY chart offers plenty of noteworthy insights for analysis:

→ A one-month low was recorded today (marked by the arrow);

→ This was followed by a sharp upward reversal, with a series of large bullish candlesticks forming on the intraday chart.

Why Is USD/JPY Moving Sharply Today?

The primary driver appears to be recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.

According to Trading Economics, this morning Ueda:

→ warned of rising core inflation risks linked to increasing food prices;

→ indicated that the Bank of Japan is prepared to adjust its monetary policy in order to achieve a stable inflation target.

Latest data show that Japan’s core inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.5% — the highest level in two years — reinforcing the case for further rate hikes. However, what's particularly striking is that despite Ueda’s hawkish tone, the yen is weakening.

Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart

Yen fluctuations formed a downward trajectory (marked in orange) in the second half of May, partly driven by US dollar weakness. Following a period of relative calm, the market has shifted into high gear — the ATR indicator is climbing sharply from multi-month lows, breaking through resistance at the 143.0 level.

This aggressive price action on the USD/JPY chart today suggests we may be witnessing an attempted bullish breakout from the channel. In light of this, it is possible that the surge in volatility reflects a fundamental shift in market sentiment — one that could potentially lead to the development of an upward trend.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Speaking at the IMES conference in Japan, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari addressed the growing internal debate within Fed over how to respond to the inflationary effects of new US tariffs.

He noted that some policymakers advocate “looking through” these price shocks, viewing them as "transitory", akin to a one-time upward shift in the price level rather than persistent inflation. That approach would favor cutting interest rates to support economic activity during the adjustment period.

However, Kashkari expressed skepticism toward this lenient view. He emphasized that trade negotiations are "unlikely to be resolved quickly"., warning of a prolonged period of elevated uncertainty and the risk of retaliatory measures.

Tariffs on intermediate goods could lead to delayed but persistent inflationary pressure as cost increases pass through to final goods over time.

Given these risks, Kashkari said he finds the case for holding rates steady more persuasive, especially in light of the need on "defending long-run inflation expectations".

While current policy is likely "only modestly restrictive", he argued that caution is warranted until the full effects of tariffs become clearer.

Full speech of Fed's Kashkari here.

Comments from ECB Governing Council members today reinforced expectations for a rate cut in June, as inflation continues to moderate across the Eurozone.

French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau noted that policy normalization is “probably not complete,” and hinted that the upcoming ECB meeting is likely to deliver further action. He pointed to France’s May inflation reading of just 0.6% as a "very encouraging sign of disinflation in action"

Separately, Lithuania’s Gediminas Šimkus struck a dovish tone, stating that the balance of inflation risks has shifted to the downside, citing trade frictions with the US and a stronger Euro as deflationary forces. He added that current borrowing costs sit at the upper bound of the neutral range, leaving room for more rate reductions.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 192.96; (P) 193.50; (R1) 194.29; More...

Break of 194.18 minor resistance suggests that GBP/JPY's pullback from 196.38 has completed at 191.867. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 196.38 resistance next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 191.86 support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.04; (P) 162.51; (R1) 163.11; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral at this point. Above 163.35 minor resistance will suggest that fall from 165.19 has completed as a correction, and rise from 154.77 is still in progress. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 165.19 next. On the downside, break of 161.06 will resume the fall from 165.19 to 158.27 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8386; (P) 0.8397; (R1) 0.8407; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside at this point. Decline from 0.8737 should target 0.8314 support first, and then 0.8239 low. On the upside, above 0.8458 resistance should indicate short term bottoming, likely with bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern. However, there is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7491; (P) 1.7525; (R1) 1.7585; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.7628 resistance will suggest that fall from 1.8554 as completed as a correction, and retain larger bullishness. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for stronger rebound. However, below 1.7245 will resume the fall to 61.8% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.8554 at 1.6953.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) should still be in progress. Break of 1.8554 will target 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. However, sustained break of 1.7062 will confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5963 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9326; (P) 0.9347; (R1) 0.9369; More....

Sideway trading continues in EUR/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. Price actions from 0.9218 are seen as either a corrective move or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. On the upside, break of 0.9419 will resume the rise from 0.9218 through 0.9445 resistance. However, firm break of 0.9291 support will bring retest of 0.9218 low.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9548) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3673; (P) 1.3771; (R1) 1.3832; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD Is turned neutral first with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen above 1.3685 temporary low. Upside should be limited well below 1.4014 resistance to bring another fall. Below 1.3685 will resume the decline from 1.4791 and target 61.8% projection of 1.4414 to 1.3749 from 1.4014 at 1.3603.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6468; (P) 0.6502; (R1) 0.6523; More...

AUD/USD retreated after edging higher to 0.6536 and intraday bias is turned neutral again first. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6406 support holds. Break of 0.6536 will resume the rally from 0.5913 to 38.2% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6513 from 0.6406 at 0.6635.

In the bigger picture, 55 W EMA (now at 0.6439) is considered taken out. A medium term bottom should already be in place at 0.5913. Rise from there could either be a corrective move, or reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). In either case, further rise is now expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6372) holds. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713.