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Japan’s gross external assets soared to a record JPY 533.05T in 2024, marking a 12.9% increase from the previous year. This seventh consecutive annual rise was driven by a combination of Yen depreciation and continued outbound investment activity, especially in mergers and acquisitions.

The Japanese government, businesses, and individuals collectively benefited from currency effects, as Dollar and Euro appreciated by 11.7% and 5% respectively against Yen, inflating the yen-denominated value of overseas holdings.

Nevertheless, for the first time in 34 years, Germany overtook Japan with external assets totaling JPY 569.65T. China followed closely behind Japan with JPY 516.28T.

While Yen’s depreciation offered valuation support, Japan's position was undercut by Germany’s structurally stronger current account surplus.

Key Highlights

• USD/CHF started a fresh decline below the 0.8300 support.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 0.8250 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD gained pace for a move above the 1.1380 level.
• GBP/USD rallied and cleared the 1.3550 resistance zone.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US Dollar failed to surpass 0.8480 against the Swiss France. USD/CHF formed a local top and started a fresh decline below 0.8350.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below the 0.8300 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The pair even declined below the 0.8260 level and tested the 0.8200 zone.

The pair is now consolidating losses and struggling to stay above the 0.8200 zone. On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 0.8220 level.

The next key resistance sits near the 0.8250 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.8250 on the same chart. The first major resistance sits at 0.8265. A close above the 0.8265 level could set the pace for another increase.

In the stated case, the pair could even clear the 0.8300 resistance. The next major stop for the bulls could be near the 0.8350 resistance.

On the downside, immediate support sits near the 0.8180 level. The next key support sits near 0.8160. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 0.8120 pivot level in the near term. The main support could be near 0.8000.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair started a major increase above the 1.3550 resistance zone and might continue to move up.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• US Durable Goods Orders for April 2025 – Forecast -8.0% versus +9.2% previous.
• US Housing Price Index for March 2025 (MoM) - Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.1% previous.

Both the FED and ECB head representatives made speeches on Sunday, 27, and this morning, respectively. As Traders, it is always an advantage to know what tone Central Bank speakers are using and what they are considering for future key decisions.

It's only fair to remind that a Dovish Policy aims at stimulating the economy, and easing financial conditions. It is usually associated to weakness in a specific currency, with speeches around when and how much to cut.
On the other hand, a Hawkish Policy aims at cooling down inflation and tightening financial conditions. It is usually associated with strength in a specific currency, as the themes are focused on when and how much to hike.

FED’s Powell spoke on Sunday afternoon at Princeton University, and ECB’s Lagarde spoke this morning at the Hertie Graduate School in Germany.

FED's Powell Defends the Federal Reserve in Princeton

Jerome Powell made remarks for a Baccalaureate Ceremony at the Princeton University, from where he graduated 50 years ago.

He did not comment about Monetary and Financial Policy for the FED though gave a show of strength from the Central Bank amid persistent criticism from President Trump, with the President calling the head of the Federal Reserve "Too Late Powell".

FED's Powell focused his speech on defending the stimulus from COVID years and how the Federal Reserve had to react to economic uncertainty with no precedent.

Donald Trump is trying to push for Cuts. However, the Federal Reserve has indicated throughout past speeches that they are waiting for further news to observe the impact on inflation and the unforeseen US tariff policy.

Here are the May 7th FOMC Meeting's most pertinent remarks in those aspects:
“In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

You can access yesterday's speech here and the entire May 7, 2025 Meeting Statement here.

ECB's Lagarde and the Euro's role in the Global Economy

Christine Lagarde spoke earlier this morning at the Hertie School in Berlin, Germany.

While the ECB President avoided commenting on the broader economic outlook or monetary policy, she emphasized the euro’s expanding role in global trade, particularly as the U.S. gradually steps back from its traditional leadership position.

Lagarde highlighted that “shifts in the global currency landscape are not unprecedented in monetary history”—a statement that touches on one of the defining macro themes of this decade and beyond. Economists and market participants alike are watching closely to see whether the U.S. Dollar can maintain its dominant reserve status.

The speech offers valuable insight, even for traders primarily focused on technical movements, making it a worthwhile read.

You can access the whole speech here.

More speeches incoming with BoJ's Ueda

It's not over for Central Bankers speeches today with the Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda giving a speech at the 2025 BOJ-IMES Conference in Tokyo, Japan. He is expected to speak at 8:00 P.M. E.T.

Safe Trades!

NZDUSD jumped to new 2025 high on Monday, in extension of Friday’s 1.9% rally, after fresh threats of US tariffs on Apple and European Union and subsequent U-turn in policies with the EU, deflated US dollar and boosted risk appetite.

Kiwi dollar probed again through psychological 0.60 barrier (following several rejections here in late April / early May).

Near term action is underpinned by formation of daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen bull-cross and thick daily cloud, but loss of bullish momentum should be considered as initial warning as bulls again face headwinds above 0.60 barrier.

Threats of another failure to register a clear break above 0.60 (after a number of rejections) keep in play scenario of potential stall.

Look for today’s reaction at 0.60 level for fresh signal.

RBNZ policymakers will meet on Wednesday and are widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, however, more focus will be on signals about central bank’s next steps.

Res: 0.6037; 0.6087; 0.6100; 0.6167
Sup: 0.6000; 0.5946; 0.5931; 0.5900

EURJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• EURJPY reversed from key support level 161.40
• Likely to rise to resistance level 165.00

EURJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 161.40 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of April), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band

The upward reversal from the support level 161.40 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Long Legged Doji.

EURJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 165.00, which has been reversing the price from last November.

S&P 500: ⬆️ Buy

• S&P 500 reversed from support level 5775,00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 5970,00

S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 5775,00 (former resistance from March, which formed the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star).

The support level 5775,00 was strengthened 20-day moving average and by the 38.21% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from April.

S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5970,00, top of the previous minor impulse wave 1 from the middle of May.

Bitcoin: ⬆️ Buy

• Bitcoin reversed from support level 106850,00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 111830.00

Bitcoin cryptocurrency pair recently reversed up from the support level 106850,00 (which has been reversing the price during the last few trading sessions), intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from last week.

The support level 106850,00 was further strengthened by the support trendline of the sharp daily up channel from the start of April.

Bitcoin cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 111830.00, which reversed the price earlier this month.

Platinum: ⬇️ Sell

• Platinum reversed from long-term resistance level 1095,00
• Likely to fall to support level 1075.00

Platinum recently reversed down from the major long-term resistance level 1095,00 (former yearly high from 2024), which stopped the previous weekly impulse wave A.

The resistance level 1095,00 was strengthened by the upper daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.

Given the strength of the resistance level 1095,00 and the overbought weekly Stochastic, Platinum can be expected to fall to the next support level 1075.00.

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of GBPUSD. In which, the rally from 13 January 2025 low is unfolding as an impulse sequence & showed a higher high sequence therefore, called for an extension higher to take place. We knew that the structure in GBPUSD should remain supported & extend higher. So, we advised members not to sell the pair & buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

GBPUSD 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 5.08.2025

Here’s the 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 5.09.2025 Asia update. In which, the rally to $1.3443 high completed wave 1 & made a pullback in wave 2. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave zigzag correction where wave ((a)) ended at $1.3257 low. Then a bounce to $1.3403 high-ended wave ((b)) & started the next leg lower in wave ((c)) towards $1.3216- $1.3100 blue box area. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for new highs ideally or for a 3-wave bounce minimum.

GBPUSD Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 5.26.2025

This is the latest 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from the 5.26.2025 London update. In which the pair is showing a strong reaction higher taking place, right after ending the correction within the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the long position at the blue box area. Since then, the pair has already made a new high above $1.3443 high confirming the next extension higher targeting $1.3819- $1.4044 area higher.