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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9046; (P) 0.9089; (R1) 0.9153; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Price actions from 0.9026 short term bottom are viewed as a consolidations pattern only. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 0.9168 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.9026 at 0.9167). Another fall below 0.9026 to resume the larger down trend is expected at a later stage. However, decisive break of 0.9167/8 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.9197) and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin is struggling to settle above $68,500 and $70,000.
• A bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $68,250 on the 4-hour chart of BTC/USD.
• Ethereum struggled to settle above $2,050 and $2,080.
• Gold is again moving higher above the $5,250 resistance.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price remained supported above $63,500 against the US Dollar. BTC climbed above $65,000 and $66,200, but the bears remained active.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price remained confined in a range below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour) amid the recent tensions between the USA, Israel, and Iran. The price attempted a recovery wave above $66,500. The price climbed above $68,000 before it faced resistance.

There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance near $68,250. Immediate support sits at $65,600. The first key support could be $65,000.

A downside break below $65,000 might start another decline. The next major support is $63,000, below which BTC could decline toward $61,200.

If there is another recovery wave, the price could face resistance at $68,250 and the trend line. The first key hurdle is $69,500. A close above $69,500 could send the price toward $70,800 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). Any more gains might call for a test of $72,000.

Looking at Ethereum, the price also remained in a range below the $2,120 resistance. If there is no close above $2,120, ETH could revisit $1,820.

Today’s Key Economic Releases

• Fed's Schmid speech.
• ECB's Sleijpen speech.
• ECB's Kocher speech.
• Fed's Kashkari speech.

While the military theater of the US-Israel-Iran conflict is centered in the Persian Gulf, its economic epicenter is arguably the Eurozone. The sharp decline in Euro this week is not merely a broad flight into Dollar safety. It reflects targeted repricing of Europe’s structural vulnerabilities at a moment of acute energy risk. Euro has emerged as primary casualty among major currencies, underperforming nearly all peers except Swiss Franc, which relative weakness is largely policy-driven following intervention warning from the SNB

The Energy Storage "Time Bomb"

The timing could hardly be worse. The EU enters March refill season with gas storage around 30%, significantly below roughly 40% seen in 2025 and 60% in 2024. That cushion has evaporated just as maritime energy routes face disruption risk.

With Strait of Hormuz under threat and major shippers such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd bypassing Suez Canal, replenishing inventories will come at steep premium. This looming import bill shock acts as direct devaluation pressure on Euro through deteriorating trade balance.

The Stability Proxy

Besides, Euro is treated as a proxy for Eurasian stability. Tehran’s declaration of “Total War” elevates non-financial risks that disproportionately affect Europe. The region’s economic architecture is deeply intertwined with Middle East energy and Asian trade corridors.

Closure or prolonged disruption of Suez Canal forces rerouting around Cape of Good Hope, effectively taxing every Euro-denominated export. Longer shipping times translate into higher freight costs, inventory bottlenecks and margin compression for European manufacturers.

At the sovereign level, rising energy costs and regional instability could renew fiscal strain. Migration pressures and potential need for renewed energy subsidies risk widening deficits.

Monetary Policy "Trapping"

The ECB now finds itself edging toward stagflationary dilemma. Surging natural gas prices are inflationary, yet function as regressive tax on consumers and businesses. Growth erosion could force policymakers to prioritize stability over price control. Markets might start to price in scenario where the ECB is compelled to shift its stance, and even pivoting toward easing again even as inflation risks jump.

The Failure of the 1.2000

Failure to break 1.2000 in EUR/USD now looks pivotal. Throughout 2025, Euro rallied from 1.03 toward 1.20 on hopes of industrial revival. That psychological ceiling proved insurmountable. The weekend escalation is starting to trigger capitulation among long-position holders. What had been narrative of recovery is morphing into unwind of crowded positioning.

EUR/CAD to target 1.57

EUR/CAD is among the bigger movers this week, with Loonie being lifted by surging oil prices. Technically, fall from 1.6465 medium term top resumed by powering through 1.6063 support. Near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6170 resistance holds.

For now, the fall from 1.6465 is seen as a correction to the five-wave rally from 1.4483. Deeper decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4483 to 1.6465 at 1.5708. But strong support should be seen there to contain downside to bring rebound.

Australian Dollar rallied broadly after RBA Governor Michele Bullock delivered hawkish remarks that reintroduced a genuine possibility of a rate hike at the March meeting. By describing the decision as “live” and warning against assuming a hold, Bullock unsettled prior market consensus and injected fresh upside risk into rate expectations. The shift immediately translated into stronger AUD performance across the board.

AUD/JPY led the advance, extending its uptrend and breached 112 level. The move reflects not only renewed tightening speculation from the RBA, but also relatively softer Yen dynamics amid delayed tightening expectations from Tokyo.

Technically, as long as 110.03 support holds, near-term bias remains firmly to the upside. The next target lies at 38.2% projection of 96.24 to 107.67 from 110.78 at 113.22, which aligns closely with the upper boundary of the near term rising channel. That area could present initial resistance and cap gains on first test, particularly if momentum indicators begin to stretch.

However, decisive break above 113.22 would open the path toward 61.8% projection at 116.65 before topping around there. That level represents a much more formidable barrier, coinciding almost precisely with the long-term fibonacci level, 61.8% projection of 59.85 (2020 low) to 109.36 (2024 high) from 86.03 (2025 low) at 116.62.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock delivered a distinctly hawkish message at the AFR Business Summit today, warning markets not to assume a March rate hold is a done deal. She stressed that the upcoming meeting is “live,” pushing back against expectations that policy decisions are effectively pre-set or limited to quarterly moves.

Bullock highlighted that inflation remains elevated at 3.8% while unemployment at 4.1% still reflects tight labor market conditions. The Board, she said, will be “actively looking” at whether it needs to "move more quickly", explicitly discouraging the view that the RBA only adjusts rates at predictable intervals.

Central to her remarks was the risk of a prolonged oil price spike stemming from escalating Middle East tensions. While she emphasized that it is too early to quantify the impact, Bullock warned that a supply-driven shock could add to inflation pressures and, critically, influence inflation expectations — a development the RBA is “very alert to.”

EURUSD: ⬇️ Sell

• EURUSD broke support zone
• Likely to fall to support level 1.1600

EURUSD currency pair recently broke the support zone between the key support level 1.1755 (former resistance from October and December), support trendline of the daily up channel from May and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from January.

The breakout of this support zone should accelerate the active downward impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (1) from the end of January.

Given the strongly bullish USD sentiment seen across the currency markets on the safe-haven inflows, EURUSD currency pair can then be expected to fall to the next support level 1.1600.

CHFJPY: ⬇️ Sell

• CHFJPY reversed from resistance zone
• Likely to fall to support level 200.00

CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed from the resistance zone between the strong resistance level 203.60 (which formed the daily Evening Star at the start of February) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from the resistance level 203.60 stopped the impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of December.

Given the strength of the resistance level 203.60 and the bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic, CHFJPY currency pair can then be expected to fall to the next round support level 200.00.

Oil markets have reacted swiftly to the latest escalation in Middle East tensions. At the time of writing, WTI crude prices have surged more than 5% to $70.50/bbl, marking the highest level since mid-June.  Brent prices have moved up by a similar amount and are currently sitting at over $77/bbl. The Brent-WTI spread has been widening in recent weeks as market participants have been pricing in a higher risk premium amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Currently, the spread sits at $6.5 – about twice as high as its historical average – but still below the spread reached in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Despite the sharp near-term move, price action has remained more contained than in some past geopolitical shocks, reflecting several structural features of today’s oil market. Markets broadly view current events as less disruptive than the onset of the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict. At that time, crude prices briefly surged to nearly $140/bbl amid sweeping sanctions, physical supply losses, and Europe’s abrupt energy cutoff from Russia. By contrast, today’s environment features more buffers: U.S. crude exports are near four million barrels per day (bpd), OPEC+ retains some spare capacity, and strategic reserves remain available. That said, the current episode is widely viewed as the most significant threat to Middle East energy supply in several years, and closer to a worst-case scenario from a supply risk standpoint relative to past regional conflicts.

A central focus for markets is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil flows. It's also critical in shipping refined products, LNG, fertilizers, and key food inputs. Shipping companies have already begun rerouting vessels as a precaution, and while alternative pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE could redirect an estimated 5 million/bpd, these routes are insufficient to fully offset a prolonged disruption. Even a short-lived closure would likely result in prices ratcheting higher with each day of interruption, while insurance and freight premiums could keep prices elevated even after physical flows resume.

Looking ahead, oil prices will be driven by how the conflict evolves, implying considerable uncertainty in the days ahead. As such, we sketch out three possible scenarios of how prices could evolve:

• Baseline Scenario (Contained Escalation): The baseline assumes some persistence over the next several weeks but without direct, sustained disruptions to major energy infrastructure or shipping lanes. Under this scenario, WTI prices average in the low $70s/bbl in the coming weeks, reflecting a moderate geopolitical risk premium and some physical supply impacts. Planned OPEC+ output increases in April and relatively weak global demand help to cap the upside and allow prices to drift a bit lower once tensions ease.
• Escalation (Material Supply Disruption): In an escalation scenario, risks to the Strait of Hormuz intensify, with shipping interruptions stranding up to 20 million/bpd for a sustained period. WTI prices could rise toward $80–$100/bbl, potentially exceeding $100 temporarily if disruptions are prolonged. Spillovers to refined products and global gas markets would amplify inflationary pressures. The duration of this scenario could extend for several months, depending on the persistence of asymmetric attacks and broader regional instability.
• De-escalation (Rapid Resolution): In a de-escalation scenario, swift military action limits further retaliation and avoids major infrastructure damage. In this case, oil prices could peak quickly at current levels and retrace much of their recent gains, with WTI falling back toward $60/bbl within a couple of weeks. However, even here, some residual risk premium may persist above historical norms given heightened uncertainty around Iran’s longer-term posture.

Macro Implications

From a macroeconomic perspective, higher oil prices pose some upside to the inflation outlook and a headwind to economic growth, but only if they’re sustained. So far, our mark-to-market on oil prices has barely moved the needle from a growth standpoint and has added no more than a tick or two to headline inflation metrics.

However, should oil prices continue to push higher – as suggested under the “Escalation Scenario” – the growth impacts could become visible. A rule of thumb is that every $10 increase in WTI subtracts roughly 0.1 percentage points from U.S. real GDP growth. This would imply a potential drag of 0.2-0.4 percentage points. The inflation impacts would be more notable, potentially adding as much as three-quarters of a percentage point to the 2026 annual average. However, the secondary effects to core measures of inflation would be considerably smaller given the temporary nature of the shock. This suggests no meaningful shift in monetary policy as central banks look through the temporary price effects.

For Canada, higher near‑term oil prices, combined with a stronger U.S. dollar amid elevated global risk aversion, would support cash flows for Canadian producers, partially offsetting broader growth headwinds. Still, with weaker U.S. demand, reduced consumer purchasing power and heightened global uncertainty, the net macroeconomic impact of a prolonged escalation scenario would likely be negative, despite gains in the energy sector.

Canada nonetheless remains a stable and strategically important global energy producer, with the oil patch already positioned for modest improvement this year. Capital spending was expected to rebound by roughly $1.5 billion, following a $1.6 billion contraction in 2025. A sustained increase in oil prices would tilt risks to the upside for investment, though structural constraints and elevated uncertainty may limit the scale of the response.

• US Stock Benchmarks gapped lower at the open but have bounced higher significantly since.
• Investor sentiment remains elevated despite the new beginning of a rough conflict in the Middle East.
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500.

Stock Markets have eased significantly during the Asian and European sessions, but it seems that US Markets are remaining unfazed.

Gapping lower by 1.50% across all benchmarks, Stocks are now rallying back, now close to unchanged, and essentially filling the gaps.

J.P. Morgan issued a buy-the-dips recommendation, which undoubtedly helped risk sentiment ease, but US stocks remain at key inflection points.

What is surprising is also seeing US Treasuries sell off (10Y Yield back above 4.00%) despite ongoing intense exchanges in the Middle East – Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are also exploding higher as we speak.

Markets were trading at the lows of their ranges, which could also have helped the rebound.

I invite you to check out Morning reactions and a detailed resume of the events right here.

Keep a close eye on sentiment throughout the week, as economic damage from the war is still far from reflected. The Strait of Hormuz and a potential closure there could be hurting sentiment more consistently throughout the week.

Let's explore the key levels for weekly action by diving into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Current Session's Stock Heatmap

Current picture for the Stock Market (11:56 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 2, 2026

Despite the rebound around US Benchmarks, individual equities are sending a mixed picture.

Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta and Energy stocks are dominating the action.

Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels

Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Dow Jones rebounded significantly from its 48,103 overnight futures lows, and is now facing a significant test at its Gap-fill level and 50-Hour MA (48,925 – Morning Highs).

• Closing above on the session would imply a buy-the-dip flows over War flows – Odds for this could be compromised if news worsen.
• Rejecting the 50-Hour MA (immediate test) could lead to further downside in US Indexes – Doing so could see a test of the overnight lows.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Key 1H MA 48,925 – Current rejection & Morning highs
• 200-Hour MA 49,270
• January ATH Resistance 49,500 to 49,700
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance (Range Highs)
• Index All-Time highs 50,512

Support Levels

• Past week Support 48,660 to 48,740 (Friday lows)
• November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Minor Support
• Overnight futures lows 48,103
• Key Support from 47,500 to 48,000 (Next main Support)
• 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)

Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels

Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Nasdaq breached back above its 50-Hour MA but is less responsive than the DJIA to the indicator.

The level to watch is being tested as we speak: 25,000.

• Closing above on the session would see further dip-buying, like in the DJIA.
• Rejecting here however could see a quick test of the 24,441 overnight lows.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Key Pivot 25,000 to 25,250 (Immediate rejection!)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Intraday resistance
• All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300

Support Levels

• Mini-intraday support 24,744 (bearish below)
• 24,400 to 25,600 Key Support (Range Support)
• 24,441 Overnight lows
• February Support 24,150 to 24,200
• October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

S&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels

S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The S&P 500 is facing almost similar conditions as the Dow. After running higher in the morning session, bulls will be facing a key test at the 200-Hour MA (6,874).

• Trading and closing above would point to 7,000.
• Below would point to a test of the 6,760 overnight lows.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Morning highs and 200-Hour MA (6,874)
• Key Pivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900
• Previous ATH minor Resistance 6,945 to 6,975
• Current ATH 7,020
• All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)

Support Levels

• Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850
• 6,800 Psychological Support
• Overnight lows 6,760
• February lows 6,730 (Higher timeframe range lows)
• 6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!

• WTI crude oil pulled back from $75/barrel highs, with markets seemingly content that the geopolitical risk premium is priced in.
• The Middle East conflict has surged natural gas prices (due to the Qatar LNG halt), boosted shipping/energy stocks, but weighed on airline stocks.
• Key WTI technical levels to watch are resistance at $71.38 and support at $67.00.

Oil prices have pulled back significantly from the daily highs printed in the Asian session, with WTI reaching a peak around the $75/barrel mark.

The question for some though, are markets pricing enough of a premium given the geopolitics in the Middle East and potential supply disruptions if the conflict continues? Some say no while others are more optimistic.

Oil prices may not have moved as much as some have predicted, but the Middle East conflict is having an impact on a wide range of assets and markets.

Market impact of the Middle East conflict and Oil price rise

The escalating conflict has paralyzed energy production and shipping throughout the Middle East, most notably in the Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

In a significant move, Qatar suspended all liquefied natural gas (LNG) production at its major facilities, including Ras Laffan, following drone attacks. Because Qatar accounts for roughly 20% of the global LNG market, this halt has triggered a massive surge in natural gas prices, with European benchmarks jumping as much as 50% in a single day.

Global energy equities have surged in response to the supply shock and the 8% spike in crude oil prices. Major players like Exxon Mobil and Shell saw notable gains, with Exxon's share price rising over 4% in early trading. Domestic natural gas firms in the US also benefited from the tightening global market; shares of CNX Resources and Williams Companies each rose by more than 1%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) climbed 3.7%.

The aviation and travel sectors faced significant headwinds as the closure of major Middle Eastern hubs triggered a sharp sell-off in airline stocks. Shares of Ryanair, IAG, American Airlines, and United Airlines all retreated, reflected by a nearly 3% drop in the S&P 1500 Passenger Airlines index. This downturn was compounded by the surge in crude oil prices, which typically signals a spike in jet fuel costs—historically one of the industry's heaviest operating expenses.

In contrast, shipping and tanker companies saw their valuations climb as the conflict disrupted vital maritime arteries like the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz. These bottlenecks have tightened global shipping capacity, fueling expectations for significantly higher freight rates. European giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd saw their shares jump 7.8% and 6.7%, respectively, while US-based Nordic American Tankers rose over 3%.

Other key players in the sector, including Teekay Tankers and International Seaways, also posted gains as the market braced for a prolonged period of logistical constraints.

Source: LSEG

Forward Outlook - What next for energy markets?

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains volatile, with the threat of Iranian retaliation against neighboring Gulf states heightening risks to global energy supplies and leaving the door open for further escalation.

While the Strait of Hormuz has not been officially closed by Iranian forces, the commercial impact is already severe; insurers are canceling coverage and shipping premiums are skyrocketing, forcing vessels to either pause transits or seek costly detours.

These disruptions extend beyond maritime trade, as the closure of Gulf airspace is currently severing vital aviation corridors between Europe and Asia. Furthermore, the potential reactivation of Houthi rebels in the Red Sea threatens to shut down the primary alternative routes that previously mitigated Hormuz-related tensions.In the event of a prolonged conflict, the global economy faces a "perfect storm" of compounding pressures.

The synergy of surging energy costs, logistical breakdowns, and a widespread shock to investor confidence poses a significant threat to global trade volumes. This instability arrives at an especially precarious moment, as the world economy is still struggling to absorb the inflationary and growth-stifling effects of recent tariff shocks.

Ultimately, the timing of this crisis could not be worse, potentially stalling a global recovery that was already on shaky ground.

WTI Crude Oil Four-Hour Chart, March 2, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Looking at the four-hour WTI chart above and you can see the massive spike last night at the open.

Oil prices have since failed to surpass the 73.35 handle as markets appear content that enough risk premium has already been priced in.

Support rests some distance away, around the 67.00 handle.

If oil prices remain below the 71.38 resistance level, a return to the 67.00 breakout level cannot be ruled out.

A four-hour candle close back above the 71.38 handle could open up a retest of Sunday evenings highs at the 75.00 a barrel mark.

For now though, staying nimble appears to be the best option as market sentiment can shift in a second.

Keep an eye on developments in the Middle East as well as comments from the Trump administration in the US.

Key levels to keep an eye on

Support:

• 67.00
• 66.15
• 65.00 (100-day MA)

Resistance:

• 71.38
• 73.35
• 75.00