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• The FTSE 100 maintains a firm bullish posture, holding comfortably above the 10000 psychological level
• The index is currently consolidating sideways between 10550 and 10700 as it searches for its next catalyst.
• The broader "buy-the-dip" structural breakout remains the primary driver, with bulls staying in control as long as the index holds above 10500.

The FTSE 100 continues to exhibit resilient price action as we close out the trading week. Despite a brief period of volatility in March, the index has firmly reclaimed its bullish posture, underpinned by a shift that suggests the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Daily Chart: Structural Strength and Moving Average Support

On the daily timeframe, the FTSE 100 is currently consolidating just below its recent swing highs. The most notable technical development is the index's ability to remain comfortably above the 10000 psychological level, which previously served as the "12 Nov Swing High."

Key takeaways from the daily view:

• The SMA Cluster: The index is trading well above its 100-day MA (blue) at 10198 and the 200-day MA (yellow) at 9761. The widening gap between price and these long-term averages highlights the strength of the current trend.
• Ascending Support: A clear ascending trendline (black) continues to guide price action higher, currently providing a dynamic floor near the 10400 zone.
• RSI Momentum: The Daily RSI is sitting at 58.3, comfortably away from overbought territory. This suggests there is significant "white space" for the index to rally toward the 10786 resistance level before momentum exhaustion becomes a primary concern.

FTSE 100 Daily Chart, April 17, 2026

Source: TradingView

H4 Chart: Consolidation Following the Recovery

The H4 chart provides a clearer picture of the recovery following the late-March dip. After testing liquidity below 10000, the index surged back, reclaiming the 10269 and 10500 handles.

We are currently seeing a period of sideways consolidation between 10550 and 10,700. The H4 RSI is currently neutral at 51.0, reflecting a market that is searching for its next catalyst. The 100-period MA (blue) on the H4 is currently trending at 10352, acting as a secondary line of defense should we see an intraday pullback.

FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, April 17, 2026

Source: TradingView

H1 Chart: Session Scenarios & Key Levels

The H1 chart shows the index currently hovering around the 10596 mark, sandwiched between the 50-period (dark blue) and 100-period (yellow) moving averages on this timeframe.

The Bullish Scenario

For the bulls to reassert dominance in the upcoming session, we need to see a sustained hold above the intraday pivot at 10600. A clean break above the recent local high of 10660 would open the door for a retest of the major resistance ceiling at 10786. Traders should watch for the RSI to climb back above 60 to confirm that buying momentum is returning.

The Bearish Scenario

If the index fails to hold the 10580 support level (near the current 100-MA), we could see a slide toward the 10552 handle. A break below this zone would suggest a deeper corrective move is underway, potentially targeting the H4 support at 10500. The appearance of a "PIVOT" high on the RSI suggests that the immediate upside might be capped in the very short term.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 10660, 10700, 10786 (Major)
• Support: 10580, 10552, 10500

FTSE 100 One-Hour Chart, April 17, 2026

Source: TradingView

The FTSE 100 remains in a "buy-the-dip" regime. While intraday consolidation is the current theme, the broader structural breakout on the daily chart remains the primary driver. As long as the index holds above 10500 on a closing basis, bulls remain in control.

The Australian dollar is undergoing a corrective decline after reaching recent highs, with the current move driven by market reaction to newly released macroeconomic data. Earlier gains in AUD were supported by improving global risk sentiment and steady demand for commodity-linked currencies. However, weaker labour market figures have prompted a reassessment of expectations and triggered profit-taking.

Employment data published yesterday pointed to a slowdown in growth, raising concerns about the durability of the economic recovery. Although full-time employment increased, overall job growth came in below forecasts, while the unemployment rate showed little change. Together, these factors weighed on the Australian dollar and led to a reassessment of its short-term outlook following the prior rally.

Toward the end of the week, market participants will focus on upcoming macroeconomic releases, including data on economic activity, central bank commentary, and commodity market statistics. These factors may reshape expectations and influence the direction of commodity currencies.

AUD/USD

After reaching a yearly high near 0.7180, AUD/USD has pulled back, forming a “Bearish Harami” reversal pattern. A bearish close in the current session could increase the likelihood of a deeper correction towards 0.7100–0.7120.

At the same time, a renewed break above the recent high would signal continued bullish momentum and a return of buyers to the market.

Key events for AUD/USD:

• today at 13:00 (GMT+3): International Monetary Fund meetings;
• today at 18:30 (GMT+3): speech by FOMC member Mary Daly;
• today at 22:30 (GMT+3): CFTC net speculative positions on AUD.

AUD/CAD

AUD/CAD is also moving lower, reflecting both weakness in the Australian dollar and relative resilience of the Canadian currency. Commodity market dynamics remain an additional driver, with energy prices and global demand expectations continuing to play a key role.

Technical analysis suggests the potential for a correction towards 0.9730–0.9760, as a “Dark Cloud Cover” reversal pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. A retest of recent highs will help assess the strength of demand and the likelihood of a renewed uptrend.

Key events for AUD/CAD:

• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian housing starts;
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): foreign investment in Canadian securities;
• today at 20:00 (GMT+3): Baker Hughes rig count.

The current pullback in the Australian dollar follows weaker labour market data after a period of steady gains. If downward pressure persists, the correction may deepen. However, stabilisation in the external environment and supportive incoming data could allow the broader upward trend to resume.

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USD/JPY dynamics continue to be driven by the persistent yield gap between US and Japanese government bonds. With the Federal Reserve maintaining a relatively hawkish stance and keeping rates elevated as of April 2026, the Bank of Japan remains extremely cautious in its path towards policy normalisation. This divergence in monetary policy continues to underpin demand for the US dollar.

The dollar is also supported by its safe-haven appeal amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. However, upside momentum is being restrained by the proximity of the key 160.00 level. Historical precedent suggests a heightened risk of currency intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance around this threshold. Investors are now focused on the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting on 28 April, which could reshape market expectations for the pair’s next move.

Technical Overview

Since April 2025, the pair has been developing a steady uptrend within a well-defined parallel channel. Price action remains highly responsive, consistently respecting the channel structure and reinforcing the strength of the broader trend. Each test of the lower boundary over the past year has triggered renewed buying interest.

Currently, the pair is consolidating just below the critical 160.00 level, while holding above the upper boundary of the horizontal volume zone near 158.500. The Point of Control (POC) is concentrated around 156.00, acting as the midpoint of the current structure and a key reference level in the event of a corrective move.

The slowdown near current levels may reflect position-building, as market participants appear reluctant to force a breakout above 160.00 without a strong fundamental catalyst. The RSI with Moving Averages shows a reading of 51, indicating neutral conditions and no signs of extreme overbought territory despite proximity to yearly highs. Both moving averages of the oscillator are also positioned in neutral territory, reinforcing the current market balance.

Summary

USD/JPY remains in sharp focus. The wide interest rate differential and geopolitical backdrop continue to support the dollar, but the approach to the psychological 160.00 level, combined with intervention risks, is encouraging a more cautious stance among buyers.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 215.02; (P) 215.40; (R1) 215.67; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral for consolidations below 215.89 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained by 213.29 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 215.89 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 204.47) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 187.18; (P) 187.43; (R1) 187.77; More...

EUR/JPY's up trend resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rise should be seen to 161.8% projection of 180.78 to 184.75 from 182.56 at 188.98 next. Nevertheless, break of 187.07 support should indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback to 55 4H EMA (now at 186.38).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) in in progress and should be ready to resume. Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8695; (P) 0.8705; (R1) 0.8720; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment, as consolidations continue below 0.8740. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8675 support holds. Break of 0.8740 will resume the rebound from 0.8610 to 0.8788 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8675 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8610 low instead.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6411; (P) 1.6447; (R1) 1.6487; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside as fall from 1.6842 is in progress for retesting 1.6125 low. Firm break there will resume whole down trend from 1.8554 to 1.5913 fibonacci level next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6667 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7163) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9217; (P) 0.9231; (R1) 0.9247; More....

Sideway trading continues in EUR/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected with 0.9155 support intact. Firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rebound from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9281) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1758; (P) 1.1792; (R1) 1.1817; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 1.1823 temporary top. Further rise is expected as long as 1.1662 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824 will extend the rally from 1.1408 to retest 1.2081 high.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1513). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.48; (P) 158.90; (R1) 159.56; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) holds. On the upside break of 160.45 will target a retest on 161.94 high. However, firm break of 157.31/49 will bring deeper fall back to 61.8% retracement at 155.38 next.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 155.24) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.