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• EURJPY is hovering around the 159.64 level
• It is trading around 9% lower from its recent high
• Momentum indicators are mixed, all eyes on stochastics

EURJPY is trading lower today, close to the 159.64 level and considerably above the August 5 low of 154.38. The market is clearly trying to find its footing following the recent rout that was triggered by the bigger-than-expected rate hike by the BoJ and fears about an imminent US recession. JPY was the primary beneficiary of this acute market reaction with EURJPY dropping around 9% from the all-time high of 175.41.

In the meantime, momentum indicators are mostly mixed. More specifically, the RSI is edging higher, but remains very close to its multi-year low. Similarly, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is moving sideways, potentially signaling a weakening bearish trend in EURJPY. More importantly, the stochastic oscillator has surpassed its moving average, and it is preparing to cross above its oversold territory (OS). Should this move take place, it could be seen as a strong bullish signal.

Should the bulls remain confident, they would try to keep EURJPY above the February 22, 2007 high at 159.64 and then gradually stage a rally towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of March 7, 2022 – July 11, 2024 downtrend at 163.37. The next key resistance area could then come at the busy 164.29-164.97 region.

On the other hand, should the bears remain hungry, they would try to break below 159.64 and then push EURJPY towards the June 28, 2023 high at 157.99. If successful, they could then test the support set by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 155.92, a tad above the 2024 low of 154.38.

To sum up, the bulls are trying to recover part of their strong losses but EURJPY’s correction might still have legs.

In August, the Japanese yen became one of the most popular instruments in the forex market. Following an unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan and weak labour market data from the US, the USD/JPY pair dropped by more than 1000 pips, settling below the psychological level of 150.00. The divergent monetary policies of the US and Japanese regulators contributed to increased volatility in yen pairs. However, after a speech by the Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor, the yen sharply corrected. Shinichi Uchida stated that "it is necessary to maintain the current level of monetary easing," which the market interpreted as a signal that the yen's rate is unlikely to increase this year.

Currently, the yen is experiencing a corrective pullback. Let's consider the possible developments in the upcoming trading sessions.

USD/JPY

Technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair indicates a potential continuation of the corrective pullback, as a "bullish harami" pattern formed on the daily timeframe two days ago. If the recent high at 147.90 is surpassed, the price may test the important area of 151.00-150.00. A decline below 145.40-145.00 could lead to a resumption of the downward movement towards 142.00-141.00.

The following events will be crucial for USD/JPY price formation:

• Today at 15.30 (GMT +3:00) the release of the US initial jobless claims data.
• Today at 19.00 (GMT +3:00) the publication of the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow indicator.

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY pair also saw a sharp decline last month. Currently, the price is trading near the psychological level of 160.00. If the pair's buyers can push the price above yesterday's high, the corrective rise could continue towards 165.00-164.00. A resumption of selling could be expected after a firm move below 158.70-158.00.

Events that could impact the current state of EUR/JPY include:

• Today at 09.45 (GMT +3:00) the release of France's trade balance.
• Tomorrow at 09.00 (GMT +3:00) the release of Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6494; (P) 0.6535; (R1) 0.6559; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as rebound from 0.6348 is still struggling to extend through 0.6567 resistance decisively. On the downside, break of 0.6472 minor support will retain near term bearishness and bring retest of 0.6348 low first. However, strong break of 0.6567 will bring stronger rally to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6616) and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.6798 as another falling leg. Deeper fall could be seen to the lower side of the range between 0.6169/6361. But strong support should be seen there to contain downside. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6617) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3722; (P) 1.3756; (R1) 1.3792; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as pullback from 1.3946 short term top extends. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.3726) would dampen the original bullish outlook and bring deeper fall. On the upside, above 1.3790 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.3946.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern, that might have completed at 1.3176 (2023 low) already. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149. This will be the favored case as long as 1.3588 support holds, in case of pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.47; (P) 185.78; (R1) 188.55; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Outlook stays bearish as long as 190.48 resistance holds. On the downside, below 183.10 minor support will bring retest of 180.00 first. Break there will resume the fall from 208.09 to 178.32 support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 190.48 will confirm short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 208.09 medium term top is seen as correcting the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Deeper decline is in favor as long as 55 W EMA (now at 189.31) holds. But strong support could emerge between 178.32 and 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, sustained trading above 55 W EMA will suggest that the range for the medium term corrective pattern is already set.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.15; (P) 159.80; (R1) 161.91; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral at this point, and outlook remains bearish with 162.87 resistance intact. On the downside, below 157.71 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Break of 154.40 will resume the fall from 175.41 to 153.15 support next. However, decisive break of 162.87 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 175.41 medium term top should be correcting the whole rise from 114.42 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen as long as 55 W EMA (now at 161.79) holds. But strong support should emerge between 153.15 and 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to bring rebound (at least on first attempt). Meanwhile, sustained trading above 55 W EMA will argue that the range of the medium term corrective pattern has already been set.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8583; (P) 0.8600; (R1) 0.8623; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is mildly on the upside with breach of 0.8618 temporary top. Rise from 0.8382 is resuming for 0.8643 resistance. Decisive break there will strengthen the case of larger bullish reversal and target 0.8764 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.8561 support will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.8382 is strong, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. As long as 0.8643 resistance holds, down trend from 0.9267 could still resume through 0.8382 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.8643 will indicate that such down trend has completed, and turn outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6643; (P) 1.6714; (R1) 1.6826; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.6474 support holds. On the upside, above 1.6869 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.7180. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 1.7715 fibonacci projection level next.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.7062 resistance will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 1. 1.4281 (2022 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715. For now, further rally is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.6355) support holds, even in case of deep retreat.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9321; (P) 0.9395; (R1) 0.9488; More....

EUR/CHF's recovery from 0.9209 extended higher but upside is capped below 0.9476 support turned resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still expected. On the downside, below 0.9333 minor support will bring retest of 0.9209 first. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 0.9928 to 161.8% projection of 0.9928 to 0.94767 from 0.9772 at 0.9041 next. However, sustained break of 0.9476 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current downside acceleration argues that medium term corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

The financial markets are relatively quiet in Asian session today, with major currency pairs and crosses trading within yesterday's range. BoC's summary of deliberations suggested that the central bank is on track for further policy loosening. Meanwhile, BoJ's summary of opinions indicated the board is preparing for more rate hikes. Comments from RBA's Governor reiterated that another rate hike remains possible, while rate cuts are not on the horizon. Additionally, RBNZ's survey showed a notable decline in inflation expectations, providing room for a rate cut this year. Despite these significant policy signals, the markets have largely ignored them.

Most currency pairs appear to be in consolidation following recent sharp moves, including Yen and Swiss Franc. Sentiment remains fragile, with risk-off behavior likely to resurface at any moment. For the week, Canadian Dollar is currently the strongest, followed by Kiwi and Aussie. Sterling is the weakest, followed by Swiss Franc and Dollar. Euro and Yen are positioned in the middle of the pack.

Technically, the recent rebound in Yen crosses is beginning to lose momentum. AUD/JPY is particularly worth watching, as it could be the first to fall on renewed risk-off sentiment. Break of 93.40 minor support will argue that the recovery from 90.10 has completed, and bring retest of this low. Further break there will resume the whole decline from 109.36. While another rise cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 98.72 resistance holds, and eventual downside breakout is still in favor.

In Asia, Nikkei closed down -0.80%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.22%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.16%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.13%. Japan 10-year JGB fell -0.0317 to 0.849. Overnight, DOW fell -0.60%. S&P 500 fell -0.77%. NASDAQ fell -1.05%. 10-year yield rose 0.080 to 3.968.

One BoJ member suggests gradual rate hike to above 1% neutral rate

BoJ's Summary of Opinions from the July 30-31 meeting reveals that board members discussed further rate hikes after implementing the second interest rate increase this year at the meeting.

One member's opinion stood out, suggesting that, assuming the price stability target is achieved in the second half of fiscal 2025, BoJ should raise the policy interest rate to the level of the "neutral interest rate." This neutral rate is estimated to be "at least around 1 percent." To avoid rapid hikes, BoJ should increase the policy interest rate in a "timely and gradual manner."

The consensus among members is that economic activity and prices have been developing generally "in line with the Bank's outlook." Consequently, it is deemed appropriate for to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.

One opinion highlighted that raising interest rates at a "moderate pace" aligns the adjustment in monetary accommodation with underlying inflation. Such moves "will not have monetary tightening effects."

RBA's Bullock: Rate hikes still possible as inflation timeline extends

RBA Governor Michele Bullock revealed in a speech today that the board "explicitly considered" another rate hike during Tuesday's meeting. Although they decided to hold rates steady, Bullock stressed that RBA "will not hesitate" to hike if necessary.

Bullock highlighted two main points from the meeting. First, despite weak economic growth, the gap between aggregate demand and supply is "larger than previously thought," leading to "persistent inflation." Second, demand growth is expected to "pick up over the next year," though there is significant uncertainty about this outlook.

Due to these factors, the Board's inflation target timeline has been "pushed out". "We don't expect to be back in the 2–3 percent target range until the end of 2025 – over a year away," Bullock stated. This delay prompted the board to consider another rate hike to ensure inflation continues to decline.

Ultimately, RBA decided to keep interest rates unchanged, believing this would balance their inflation and employment objectives. However, Bullock emphasized that the Board remains vigilant regarding upside inflation risks and "will not hesitate to raise rates if it needs to."

RBNZ inflation expectations drop across all horizons

RBNZ latest Survey of Expectations showed a notable decline in inflation expectations across all time horizons. One-year-ahead annual inflation expectations fell by 33 basis points, dropping from 2.73% to 2.40%. This marks the sixth consecutive quarterly decline since June 2023.

The two-year-ahead inflation expectations, a closely monitored indicator, also saw a decrease from 2.33% to 2.03%. These expectations are now below the average level observed since 2002, indicating a substantial shift in business outlook regarding future inflation.

Long-term expectations followed a similar trend. Five-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased to 2.07%, while ten-year-ahead expectations dropped to 2.03%.

Survey respondents also provided their outlook on the OCR. On average, they expect OCR to be 5.40% by the end of the September 2024 quarter, with a projected decrease to 4.24% by the end of June 2025. The current OCR stands at 5.50%.

BoC minutes reveal clear consensus for further rate cuts

BoC's Summary of Deliberations from its July meeting indicates a "clear consensus" on the need for more rate cuts if inflation continues to ease. With inflation "closer to target" and "downside risks" becoming "more prominent," members agreed that it would be appropriate to "lower the policy rate further" if inflation follows the projected path.

During the meeting, members discussed various risks to the inflation outlook. The focus was on "downside risks" more than in previous meetings. Members acknowledged that weak consumer sentiment is likely to persist, posing a risk that consumer spending could be "significantly weaker" than expected in 2025 and 2026. Additionally, further labor market weakness could "delay the rebound" in consumption, exerting "downward pressure on growth and inflation."

Conversely, some members highlighted the "stickiness of services price inflation," which could keep inflation elevated. They noted that price pressures in services, which are "more closely affected by wages," are unlikely to be offset by the disinflation seen in goods and other services in recent months.

Looking ahead

The European economic calendar is empty. US will release jobless claims and wholesale inventories final.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9321; (P) 0.9395; (R1) 0.9488; More....

EUR/CHF's recovery from 0.9209 extended higher but upside is capped below 0.9476 support turned resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still expected. On the downside, below 0.9333 minor support will bring retest of 0.9209 first. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 0.9928 to 161.8% projection of 0.9928 to 0.94767 from 0.9772 at 0.9041 next. However, sustained break of 0.9476 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current downside acceleration argues that medium term corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Economic Indicators Update