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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 173.66; (P) 174.09; (R1) 174.87; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of 100% projection of 164.01 to 170.87 from 167.52 at 174.38 will target 138.2% projection at 177.00. On the downside, below 173.07 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 170.87 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 139.05 to 164.29 from 153.15 at 178.38. For now outlook will stay bullish as long as 167.52 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8457; (P) 0.8468; (R1) 0.8476; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.8501) will extend the rise from 0.8396 short term bottom to 0.8529 support turned resistance. Nevertheless, On the downside, break of 0.8493 support will suggest that the corrective recovery has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting of 0.8396 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is in progress. Break of 0.8396 will target 0.8201 (2022 low). For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8643 resistance holds, even in case of stronger rebound.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6056; (P) 1.6096; (R1) 1.6129; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment, as consolidation from 1.5996 is extending. With 1.6211 support turned resistance intact, outlook remains bearish. On the downside, break of 1.5996 will target 100% projection of 1.6679 to 1.6211 from 1.6418 at 1.5950. Firm break there will target 1.5846 key support next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) only. Strong support is still expected between 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.6148 resistance will argue that the correction has completed.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9707; (P) 0.9723; (R1) 0.9741; More....

EUR/CHF's rally from 0.9476 continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Further rally would be seen to retest 0.9928 resistance. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 0.9252. On the downside, below 0.9680 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.9252 medium term bottom might not be completed yet. But even in case of resumption, strong resistance could emerge from 1.0095 to limit upside. Medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.0094 structural resistance holds. Meanwhile, break of 0.9476 will bring retest of 0.9252 low.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0744; (P) 1.0781; (R1) 1.0825; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Pullback from 1.0915 should have completed at 1.0665. Further rally would be seen to 1.0915 resistance next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.0709 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern that's still in progress. Break of 1.0601 will target 1.0447 support and possibly below. On the upside, firm break of 1.0915 resistance will start another rising leg back to 1.1138 resistance instead.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.00; (P) 161.48; (R1) 162.18; More...

Intraday bias in turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen below 161.94 temporary top. But further rally is expected as long as 160.25 minor support holds. Break of 161.94 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. Nevertheless, break of 160.25 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Further rise is expected as long as 154.53 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 (2023 low) to 151.89 (2023 high) from 140.25 at 164.94.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2684; (P) 1.2731; (R1) 1.2789; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for retesting 1.2859 high. Correction from there should have completed at 1.2612. Firm break of 1.2859 will resume rally from 1.2298. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.2612 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern that is still in progress. Break of 1.2445 support will confirm that another falling leg has started and target 1.2036 cluster support again (38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075. Nevertheless, break of 1.2892 resistance will argue that larger up trend from 1.0351 is ready to resume through 1.3141.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8982; (P) 0.9019; (R1) 0.9051; More

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8956 support holds. Above 0.9049 will affirm the case that corrective fall from 0.9223 has completed at 0.8825. Further rally would then be seen to 0.9157 resistance next. However, firm break of 0.8956 will bring retest of 0.8825 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus remains is now on 0.9223/9243 resistance zone. Decisive break there would complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 0.8551; h: 0.8332; rs: 0.8825). That would indicate larger bullish trend reversal. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9223/43 will keep medium term outlook neutral at best, for more range trading between 0.8332/9243 first.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3610; (P) 1.3648; (R1) 1.3679; More...

While USD/CAD declines notably, there is no change in the outlook as consolidation from 1.3845 is in progress, and could extend further. Downside should be contained by 1.3589 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3176 to 1.3845 at 1.3589) to bring rebound. Break of 1.3790 resistance will argue that larger rise is ready to resume and target 1.3845 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Swiss CPI slows to 1.3% yoy in Jun, vs exp 1.4% yoy

Swiss CPI rose 0.0% mom in June, below expectation of 0.1% mom. Core CPI (excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel) fell -0.1% mom. Domestic product prices rose 0.2% mom while imported products prices fell -0.5% mom.

For the 12-month period, CPI rose 1.3% yoy, slowed from prior month's 1.4% yoy, below expectation of 1.4% yoy. Core CPI slowed from 1.2% yoy to 1.2% yoy. Domestic products prices growth was unchanged at 2.0% yoy. Imported products prices fell -0.8% yoy, down from May's -0.6% yoy.

Full Swiss CPI release here.