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• AUDUSD loses its gains above 0.6640 and falls into previous range area
• Short-term risk skewed to the downside; next support near 0.6570
• US durable goods orders and more Fed speakers on the calendar

Despite the exciting bull run to a four-month high of 0.6712 last week, AUDUSD could not sustain its gains above the 0.6640 threshold, diving back into its previous range area.

Having closed below the support trendline from April’s lows and eased slightly beneath the ascending line from October 2023 and the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), the pair might be exposed to more selling. The technical indicators align with this narrative because the falling stochastic oscillator has not yet reached its lowest point in the oversold region, and the RSI is about to dip below its neutral mark of 50.

If the 50- and 200-day EMAs don’t serve as a safety net near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.6279-6870 uptrend at 0.6570, the price could plunge into the 0.6500-0.6520 zone, where the 61.8% Fibonacci level is located. Then, May’s low of 0.6464 could be the next target if downside pressures intensify. A decisive close below it could clear the way towards the 0.6400 mark.

To turn bullish again, the pair needs to rally above the March peak of 0.6666 and close above the broken support trendline. However, recovery attempts might be hindered by the limits at 0.6612 and 0.6640. Regardless, if the price surpasses its recent peak and exceeds the 23.6% Fibonacci level of 0.6728, it could potentially reach the psychological level of 0.6800. A continuation higher would shift all the attention to the December 2023 top of 0.6870.

Simply put, the latest downward trend in AUDUSD has breached crucial support levels, indicating an upcoming period of weakness. The sell-off is expected to gain extra impetus below the 0.6570 barrier.

The price of gold has fallen by more than 3.6% over 2 days, as indicated by today's XAU/USD chart. The day before yesterday, at the opening of the daily candle, the price of gold was $2421 per ounce, and yesterday at the close it was $2331.

This can be explained by market participants expecting higher Federal Reserve interest rates for a longer period. However, although gold is a hedge against inflation, it has two drawbacks:

→ It does not inherently generate income;

→ The gold market may be overvalued – after all, a historical peak was reached on May 20th.

Therefore, investors are increasingly paying attention to bonds – they also allow hedging against inflation, while their yields are rising.

Technical analysis of the XAU/USD daily chart shows that:

→ The price of gold is in a long-term uptrend (shown in blue);

→ After reaching the upper boundary in mid-April, there was a pullback to around 2300 in early May.

Setting the historical record on May 20th also marked another achievement of the upper boundary of the channel. However:

→ Bulls failed to sustain the price above the mid-April peak;

→ There was a reversal from the upper boundary of the channel with the formation of bearish divergence on the RSI between the two peaks, which can be considered as a significant double top pattern, where the second top is slightly higher than the first.

Considering the speed of the gold price decline from the May 20th peak and the confidence of bears in breaking the trend line (shown in red), it is reasonable to assume that the market is vulnerable to forming a deeper correction within the ascending blue channel – it is possible that the correction will develop towards the median line of the blue channel.

It is worth noting the important support level at $2200:

→ This is a psychological level;

→ Previously, it served as resistance;

→ It is approximately at the 50% level of impulse A→B.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Yesterday, S&P Global reported its Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) values for the US, which exceeded expectations. According to ForexFactory:

→ Manufacturing PMI: actual = 50.9; expected = 50.0; previous = 50.0.

→ Services PMI: actual = 54.8 (the highest value since May 2023); expected = 51.2; previous = 51.3.

However, the high PMI values, indicating a healthy economy, led to a drop in the stock index. The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) fell by more than 1.5% following the publication.

What explains this case of "good news is bad news"?

The point is, amid high business activity, manufacturers reported rising prices for a range of resources, suggesting that goods inflation might strengthen in the coming months. Stock market participants might have interpreted this as a reason for the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates for a longer period – hence the sharp decline in the index.

"Companies remain cautious with respect to the economic outlook amid uncertainty over the future path of inflation and interest rates, and continue to cite worries over geopolitical instabilities and the presidential election," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, in an interview with Reuters.

Technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart today (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows that:

→ the price has been forming an ascending channel since 19 April (shown in blue);

→ bulls failed to hold above the March high around the 5285 level (a bearish sign);

→ the psychological level of 5300, which showed signs of support this week, has now been breached and may act as resistance. Conversely, the 5200 level, after being breached, has shifted its role from resistance to support (as indicated by arrows).

So far, the bearish momentum that emerged yesterday following the PMI news release is being contained at the median line of the blue channel. But if sentiment does not change today, the median might be breached, and then the path to the lower boundary of the channel will open for the S&P 500 price (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen).

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

• WTI drops below diagonal line
• 20- and 200-day SMAs post death cross
• RSI flattens and Stochastics hold in oversold region

WTI crude oil with delivery in July is plummeting from the 80.00 level, which is acting as a strong resistance obstacle as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The commodity slipped beneath the medium-term ascending trend line, suggesting more declines in the market.

To attract new buyers, the bulls will have to surpass the nearby resistance of the uptrend line at 78.20 and move beyond the bearish cross within the 20- and the 200-day SMAs near the 80 level. Another successful battle there could see the price jumping to the 50-day SMA at 81.40.

However, the mixed technical indicators are not convincing traders of the bullish scenario. The narrowing SMAs indicate a potential downside move but the direction is unclear as the flattening RSI is suggesting the end of bearish action, but the stochastic oscillator keeps lacking power in the oversold region.

Hence, a downside correction could still be possible in the coming sessions. If the pair slumps below the 76.58-75.80 range, it could stabilize near the 71.50 mark. Otherwise, the sell-off could expand towards the 70.60 support disappointing medium-term traders.

Summing up, oil prices have not eliminated downside risks yet, as they remain beneath important barriers. To boost buying confidence, WTI will need to crawl above 80.00 level.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.20; (P) 198.56; (R1) 198.84; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the upside. Current rise from 191.34, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 200.53, should target 100% projection of 191.34 to 180.07 from 195.02 at 200.75. But upside should be limited there. On the downside, below 198.25 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 195.02 will argue that the third leg has started, and target 191.34 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 200.53 after breaching 199.80 long term fibonacci level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 184.47) holds, fall from there is seen as correcting the rise from 178.32 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 178.32 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.26; (P) 169.79; (R1)170.29; More...

No change in EUR/JPY's outlook. Further rise is mildly in favor despite loss of upside momentum. Rise from 164.01, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 171.58, would target 61.8% projection of 164.01 to 169.38 from 167.31 at 170.62. On the downside, break of 169.05 minor support will intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 167.31 should turn bias back to the downside to start the third leg towards 164.01.

In the bigger picture, a medium top could be formed at 171.58 after brief breach of 169.96 (2008 high). As long as 55 W EMA (now at 158.70) holds, fall from there is seen as correcting the rise from 153.15 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 153.15 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8502; (P) 0.8515; (R1) 0.8529; More...

Further decline is still in favor with 0.8540 minor resistance intact. Firm break of 0.8491/7 support zone will confirm larger down trend resumption. Next target is 0.8376 projection level next. On the upside though, above 0.8540 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as EUR/GBP is capped below medium term falling trendline. That is, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8491/7 will target 100% projection of 0.8764 to 0.8497 from 0.8643 at 0.8376.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6337; (P) 1.6359; (R1) 1.6394; More...

Breach of 1.6381 resistance suggests short term bottoming at 1.6211. Intraday bias is back on the upside for recovery to 55 D EMA (now at 1.6411) and above. On the downside, though, below 1.6322 minor support will bring retest of 1.6211 support instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of deeper fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9875; (P) 0.9896; (R1) 0.9909; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral again as it retreated after edging higher to 0.9914. On the downside, break of 0.9876 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retreat, back to 0.9728/9835 support zone. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 0.9304 to 0.9847 from 0.9563 at 0.9899 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.0106, which is slightly above 1.0095 key structural resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9563 support holds, rise from 0.9252 medium term bottom is still in favor to continue. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004.

Gold price started a sharp decline from $2,450. Crude oil prices declined steadily below the $80.00 support and moved into a bearish zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price climbed higher toward the $2,450 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $2,375 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $78.00 support zone.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $78.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price rallied heavily above the $2,350 resistance. The price even spiked above $2,425 before the bears appeared.

A high was formed near $2,450 before there was a major decline. There was a move below the $2,400 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $2,355 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.

It tested the $2,325 zone. A low is formed near $2,326 and the price is now showing bearish signs. Immediate resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,450 swing high to the $2,326 low at $2,355.

The next major resistance is near a bearish trend line at $2,375. The trend line is close to the 50-hour simple moving average.

The main resistance could be $2,388 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,450 swing high to the $2,326 low, above which the price could test the $2,410 resistance. The next major resistance is $2,450.

An upside break above the $2,450 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,480. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,500 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $2,325 level. The first major support is near the $2,312 level. If there is a downside break below the $2,312 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,250 support.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $80.00 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $78.00.

There was a steady decline below the $77.40 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $76.50 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested the $76.30 zone. The recent swing low was formed near $76.31, and the price is now consolidating losses.

Immediate support is near the $76.30 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near $75.00. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $73.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $72.00 support zone.

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78.52 swing high to the $76.31 low at $76.80.

The next resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $78.52 swing high to the $76.31 low at $77.40. The main resistance is near a trend line at $78.00.

A clear move above the trend line resistance could send the price toward $79.05. The next key resistance is near $79.90. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $81.20. Any more gains might send the price toward the $82.00 level.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.