Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8547; (P) 0.8566; (R1) 0.8577; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside for 0.8259 support. Decisive break there will suggest that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.8491/7 support one. On the upside, above 0.8579 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as EUR/GBP is capped below medium term falling trendline. That is, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8491/7 will target 100% projection of 0.8764 to 0.8497 from 0.8643 at 0.8376.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6210; (P) 1.6259; (R1) 1.6288; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AD is back on the downside with breach of 1.6216 support. Current fall from 1.6742 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.6127 support, or further to 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6127 from 1.6742 at 1.5807. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6381 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of deeper fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9848; (P) 0.9866; (R1) 0.9901; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.9304 to 0.9847 from 0.9563 at 0.9899. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.0106, which is slightly above 1.0095 key structural resistance. On the downside, below 0.9851 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9728 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9563 support holds, rise from 0.9252 medium term bottom is still in favor to continue. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004.

ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks indicated in a Bloomberg Adria interview that the central bank is nearing its 2% inflation target, paving the way for interest rate cuts. However, he emphasized that any reduction in rates should be "cautious" and "gradual," and that the process should not be rushed.

"From today's perspective, it's quite likely June is going to be the time when we start the rate cuts," Kazaks noted. However, he stressed the importance of relying on incoming data for decisions beyond June, stating, "After June, going forward, let's see again the data."

Kazaks highlighted the ECB's approach of making decisions on a meeting-to-meeting basis, based on the latest economic data. He described this strategy as "an appropriate one so far," given the high levels of uncertainty.

• EURUSD holds above medium-term downtrend line
• Oscillators indicate bearish structure

EURUSD appears to be maintaining a horizontal trajectory in the very short-term, trapped between the 1.0895 resistance level and the 1.0814 support. A paused state of directional momentum is reflected in the technical oscillators. The stochastic posted a bearish crossover within its %K and %D lines in the overbought territory, while the RSI is failing to jump above the 70 level.

To the upside, emanating pressure over the last couple of months has denied upside moves. If buyers manage to jump above the 1.0895 barrier, a revisit of the 1.0940 mark could unfold. Overcoming these constrictions could see resistance develop at the 1.0980-1.1000, which is acting as a crucial obstacle for traders.

Otherwise, if sellers drive the pair below the 1.0814 support it could interrupt the pair ahead of the penetrated descending trend line and the 200 and the 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) around 1.0785. In the event selling interest persists, the key support of the 20-day SMA at 1.0765 could halt the decline. Should it fail to do so, the 1.0720 bar could confirm another bearish wave.

Summarizing, the 1.0895 and 1.0900 levels are the immediate obstacles the bulls need to overcome in order for the outlook to change to a bullish one. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6662; (P) 0.6681; (R1) 0.6714; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 0.6713. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6578 support holds. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 has probably completed with three waves down to 0.6361 already. Above 0.6713 will target 0.6870 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could have completed at 0.6269 already. Rise from there is seen as the third leg which is now trying to resume through 0.6870 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3594; (P) 1.3619; (R1) 1.3637; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Break of 1.3589 will resume whole fall from 1.3845 and target 100% projection of 1.3845 to 1.3608 from 1.3761 at 1.3524. Also, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3628) will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.29; (P) 155.63; (R1) 156.02; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside, break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as the second leg, to retest 160.20 high. On the downside, below 153.59 will target 151.86 and below as the third leg.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9062; (P) 0.9080; (R1) 0.9110; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 0.9101 will argue that corrective fall from 0.9223 has completed with three waves down to 0.8987 already. Further rise should then be seen to retest 0.9223. On the downside, though, break of 0.8987 will resume the fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom are tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Rejection by 0.9243 resistance, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883 will strengthen this case, and maintain medium term bearishness. However, decisive break of 0.9243 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish for 1.0146.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0844; (P) 1.0861; (R1) 1.0886; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.0894. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0810 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.0894 will resume the rise to 1.0980 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that whole fall from 1.1138 has completed at 1.0601 already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg and could have completed. Firm break of 1.1138 will argue that larger up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 high. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will extend the corrective pattern instead.