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• USDJPY in a recovery mode after pull back comes to a halt
• Momentum indicators suggest intensifying positive momentum

USDJPY experienced a strong pullback from its 34-year high of 160.20 following the intervention by Japanese authorities a week ago. However, the pair managed to find its feet at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and recoup a significant part of its recent losses.

Should bullish pressures persist, the price could challenge 156.35, which is the 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the 151.90-140.24 downleg.  Further upside attempts could then cease at the 161.8% Fibo of 159.10. Conquering this barricade, the bulls may then attack the 34-year peak of 160.20.

On the flipside, if the pair comes under selling pressure, initial support could be found at the 123.6% Fibo of 154.64. Failing to halt there, the price could descend towards the May deflection point of 151.84, which lies very close to the 50-day SMA. In case of a downside violation, the April support of 150.87 could come under scrutiny.

In brief, after some roller coaster sessions in the aftermath of the Japanese intervention, USDJPY has been in a steady advance towards its recent highs. Therefore, we could see some heightened volatility moving forward as the price approaches levels that the Japanese side seems willing to defend.

• NZDUSD is under pressure following a strong rally from the 2024 lows
• It has met strong resistance at both the 200-day SMA and a key trendline
• Momentum indicators are mixed; a bearish divergence is developing

After testing the 2024 low at 0.5851 and recording a sizeable rally, NZDUSD is now hovering a tad below the 0.6009-0.6033 area. It is trying to record its third consecutive green candle with the upside currently being limited by both the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the December 28, 2023 descending trendline. The bears are apparently protecting the developing series of lower highs and lower lows and are possibly preparing for another downleg.

In the meantime, the momentum indicators are mixed. More specifically, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is tentatively hovering below its 25-threshold and thus signalling a trendless market. Similarly, the RSI has climbed above its 50-midpoint, but it appears unable to stage a strong move higher.

More importantly, the stochastic oscillator is edging towards its overbought territory (OB), maintaining a good gap from its moving average. However, a bearish divergence is developing as the lower highs in NZDUSD are countering the higher highs in the stochastics, and thus opening the door to a correction.

If the bulls remain confident, they could try to lead NZDUSD above the 0.6009-0.6033 area, which is populated by the 50- and 200-day SMAs. They could then have a go at testing the resistance set by the 0.6060-0.6092 range, which is defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, the July 14, 2022 low and the 100-day SMA, and return back inside the one-year-old rectangle.

On the flip side, the bears appear ready to retake the market reins and push NZDUSD below the December 28, 2023 trendline. They could then gradually stage a move towards the May 15, 2022 low at 0.5920 and, if successful, eye the recent 2024 lows.

To sum up, if the bulls want to break the recent series of lower highs and change the market momentum, they need to push NZDUSD back above the 0.6092 level.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0736; (P) 1.0747; (R1) 1.0759; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0733) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias to the downside for 1.0648 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg and could have completed. Firm break of 1.1138 will argue that larger up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.1274 high. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will extend the corrective pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.76; (P) 155.22; (R1) 155.96; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 151.86 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Further rise would be seen to 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 154.23 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2468; (P) 1.2497; (R1) 1.2525; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is in favor with 1.2471 support intact. On the upside, above 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. However, firm break of firm break of 1.2471 will indicate that this rebound has completed, and revive near term bearishness. Retest of 1.2298 should then be seen in this case.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.2892 is seen as the third leg which might have completed already. Break of 1.2892 resistance will argue that larger up trend from 1.0351(2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.3141. Meanwhile, break of 1.2298 support will extend the corrective pattern instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9071; (P) 0.9083; (R1) 0.9093; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9096) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9000) will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will suggest that the pull back has completed, and bring stronger rebound to retest 0.9223 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom are tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Rejection by 0.9243 resistance, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883 will strengthen this case, and maintain medium term bearishness. However, decisive break of 0.9243 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish for 1.0146.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6557; (P) 0.6580; (R1) 0.6602; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Further rise is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6562) holds. Above 0.6645 will resume the rebound from 0.6361. On the downside, however, firm break of 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall back to 0.6464 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3704; (P) 1.3733; (R1) 1.3752; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.3782 resistance will argue that correction from 1.3845 has completed with three waves down to 1.3608. Intraday bias will be back to the upside to resume larger rally from 1.3176 through 1.3845. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3629) will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already, and target 1.3477 support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9751; (P) 0.9762; (R1) 0.9772; More...

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation above 0.9728 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 0.9835 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9847. Risk will stay on the downside as 0.9835 resistance holds. Below 0.9278 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9563 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9563 support holds, rise from 0.9252 medium term bottom is still in favor to continue. Break of 0.9847 resistance will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8587; (P) 0.8603; (R1) 0.8615; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the upside for 0.8643 resistance. Firm break there will resume the choppy rebound from 0.8497 low. On the downside, below 0.8585 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as EUR/GBP is capped below medium term falling trendline. That is, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.8491/7 will target 100% projection of 0.8764 to 0.8497 from 0.8643 at 0.8376.