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Market picture

The capitalisation of the crypto market over the past 24 hours has added only 0.15% to $2.44 trillion. Crypto sentiment indices remain in the ‘greed’ territory, scoring 71 points, compared to 73 points the day before.

Bitcoin added about a quarter of a percent during the day, reaching $66.5K. Early on Tuesday morning, the price briefly exceeded $67.1K, touching the 50-day MA, but then retreated. It seems that this time, the crypto market is waiting for a signal from stock indices rather than giving such a signal about risk appetite. The calm may be illusory and quickly come to an end. We reiterate that consolidation above $67.1K could open the way to the $72-74K area. A reversal to the downside could end with a quick rollback to the $60K area.

According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds over the past week have decreased by $206 million after an outflow of $126 million the previous week. Investments in Bitcoin decreased by $192 million, in Ethereum – by $34 million, in Solana – by $0.3 million.

News background

There was a further outflow of capital from the Grayscale fund totalling $450 million, which could not be compensated by the inflow into the two largest ETFs totalling $259 million. Investors’ appetite for ETFs is declining, probably due to overall pressure on stock markets due to changing expectations for Fed policy and a strengthening dollar.

The average transaction fee in the Bitcoin network has dropped to $34.86 after reaching a record $128.45 on the day of the halving on April 20. The growth of transaction fees began on the eve of the halving. Experts linked the trend with user activity in anticipation of the launch of the Runes protocol, which was timed to coincide with the event.

The Bitcoin Initiative group of Bitcoin supporters has initiated a referendum to amend the Swiss constitution. The group intends to oblige the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to include BTC along with gold in its reserves.

FTX management will get rid of a new batch of the bankrupt exchange Solana (SOL) in the form of an auction after criticism from creditors, said Figure Markets CEO Mike Cagney.

UK PMI Manufacturing fell from 50.3 to 48.7 in April, below expectation of 50.2. PMI Services rose from 53.1 to 54.9, above expectation of 50.2, and an 11-month high. PMI Composite rose from 52.8 to 54.0, also an 11-month high.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that UK economy's rebound from last year's recession "continued to gain momentum". He noted that GDP is now growing at an increased quarterly rate of 0.4%, up from 0.3% in the first quarter.

This economic upturn has led to increased hiring, driven further by the rise in the National Living Wage in April. However, these factors have also escalated cost pressures significantly. Although the inflation of selling prices has moderated slightly, the combination of rising costs and solid demand could lead businesses to hike prices in the near future.

"While the improving economic recovery picture is welcome news, the upward pressure on inflation will add to concerns that a sustainable path to below target inflation has not yet been achieved," he added.

Full UK PMI release here.

Eurozone's PMI Manufacturing fell from 46.1 to 45.6 in April, below expectation of 46.5. PMI Services rose from 51.5 to 52.9, above expectation of 51.8, an 11-month high. PMI Composite rose from 50.3 to 51.4, also an 11-month high.

Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noted that Eurozone had a "good start" to Q2, with GDP projected to expand by 0.3%, mirroring the growth rate of the first quarter.

De la Rubia outlined three factors contributing to the sustainability of the recovery. Positive momentum in new business over the past two months has spurred more aggressive hiring policies. Service providers have shown confidence in their pricing power. The recovery in Germany and France, Eurozone's largest economies, have particularly underscored the broader regional trend.

However, the latest figures pose a critical test for ECB on its readiness to cut interest rates in June. The "accelerated increases in input costs", driven by higher oil prices and wages, necessitates close scrutiny. Moreover, the quicker pace at which service sector companies are raising prices suggests that "services inflation will persist".

Despite these inflationary pressures, HCOB still expects an ECB rate cut in June, although de la Rubia expects ECB to proceed with more caution rather than adopting the "pragmatic speed" earlier suggested by Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau.

Full Eurozone PMI release here.

Germany's PMI Manufacturing ticked up from 41.9 to 42.2 in April, below expectation of 42.9. PMI Services jumped from 50.1 to 53.3, well above expectation of 50.5, a 10-month high. PMI Composite rose from 47.7 to 50.5, also a 10-month high.

Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: Factoring in the PMI numbers into our GDP Nowcast, we estimate that GDP may expand by 0.2% in the second quarter, following an estimated 0.1% growth in the first quarter.

Full Germany PMI release here.

France PMI Manufacturing fell from 46.2 to 44.9 in April, below expectation of 46.9. But PMI Services rose from 48.3 to 50.5, above expectation of 49.0, an 11-month high. PMI Composite rose from 48.3 to 49.9, also an 11-month high.

Norman Liebke, an economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, has confidently stated that the French economy is "back on track," highlighting the significant role of the services sector in driving this recovery.

Meanwhile, inflation levels remain a concern, with elevated prices driven by higher wages along with rising energy and oil prices. Both output price inflation and input prices saw reacceleration, maintaining levels clearly above 50.

Full France PMI release here.

• NZDUSD declines sharply within descending channel
• Drops to its lowest since November before paring some losses
• Oscillators are deep in their negative territories

NZDUSD has been in an aggressive downtrend since its double rejection at the 0.6217 region in early March. Although the pair posted a fresh five-month bottom of 0.5851 last week, it seems that the retreat has paused for now.

Given that both the RSI and MACD remain tilted to the downside, the price might revisit 0.5899, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.5772-0.6380 upleg. A violation of that region could pave the way for the 0.5858-0.5851 range, defined by the recent five-month bottom and the September-November support. Failing to halt there, the pair could challenge the 2023 low of 0.5772.

On the flipside, should the pair rotate back higher, immediate resistance could be found at the previous support of 0.5940. Further advances could then cease around the 61.8% Fibo of 0.5998. Conquering this barricade, the bulls may attack the February support zone of 0.6037, which could serve as resistance in the future.

Overall, NZDUSD plummeted to a fresh five-month low but managed to recoup some losses as the decline reached oversold conditions. However, the pair is clearly not out of the woods just yet as near-term risks remain heavily tilted to the downside.

• Gold dives towards 2,300
• MACD and RSI decline from overbought regions

Gold prices have been underperforming in the past two days, breaking back below the 2,320 and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA).

Momentum indicators are pointing to a negative bias in the short term with the RSI ticking strongly to the downside. The MACD is easing beneath its trigger line losing its positive momentum. Both are confirming that a downside correction may be on the cards.

Further losses could see the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the down leg from 2,079 to 1,1810 at 2,245 come into play. A drop below the 50-day SMA, which stands near 2,222 would reinforce the bearish structure in the short term and open the way towards the next key levels of 2,195 and 2,145.

In the event of an upside reversal, the 2,400 round number could act as a barrier before being able to re-challenge the record peak of 2,431.48. A rally above this level could shift the outlook back to positive, hitting the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level of 2,515.

All in all, gold prices are in the process of a potential downside retracement before switching the near-term outlook back to bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.46; (P) 191.08; (R1) 191.84; More..

No change in GBP/JPY's outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral as consolidations from 193.51 could extend further. On the upside, firm break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 190.02 will indicate that it's at least correcting the rise from 178.32, and target 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 193.51 at 187.70.

In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), and is in progress for 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high). Break of 187.94 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.55; (P) 164.82; (R1) 165.25; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Consolidation from 165.33 could extend further. On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards 169.96 key resistance next. However, decisive break of 162.59 will argue that it's at least correcting the rise from 153.15, and target 38.2% retracement of 153.15 to 165.33 at 160.67.

In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low), which is still in progress. Next target is 169.96 (2008 high). Break of 160.20 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8607; (P) 0.8626; (R1) 0.8645; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside and outlook is unchanged. Fall from 0.8764 has probably completed already. Further rally would be seen to medium term trend line resistance (now at 0.8649). Decisive break there will solidify this bullish case and target 0.8764 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.8596 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by current strong rebound. On the upside, sustained break of the trend medium term trend resistance will argue that the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) has completed as a triangle pattern. Further rise should then be seen through 0.8764 resistance next. However, rejection by the trend line will retain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.8491 at a later stage.