Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9746; (P) 0.9767; (R1) 0.9780; More...

EUR/CHF is extending the sideway pattern from 0.9840 and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside break of 0.9840 will resume the choppy rebound from 0.9670. That will also revive the case that whole corrective decline from 1.0095 has completed at 0.9670. Further rally should be seen to 0.9878 resistance next. However, sustained trading below 0.9670 will resume the whole fall from 1.0095.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9913). Down trend form 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to extend through 0.9407 at a later stage. Nevertheless, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal.

Key Highlights

• AUD/USD found support near 0.6595 and corrected higher.
• It broke a key bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6640 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD and GBP/USD might gain bullish momentum.
• Crude oil prices are rising toward the $72.50 resistance.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6600 after a major decline against the US Dollar. AUD/USD traded as low as 0.6595 and recently started an upside correction.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair climbed above the 0.6625 resistance zone. It also broke a key bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6640.

The pair climbed above the 200 simple moving average (green, 4 hours) and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6899 swing high to the 0.6595 low. It is now rising toward a couple of key hurdles.

On the upside, the first major resistance is near 0.6750. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6899 swing high to the 0.6595 low. The next major resistance is near 0.6780.

If there is a move above the 0.6780 resistance, the pair could rise toward 0.6800. Any more gains might send AUD/USD toward the 0.6850 level.

Immediate support is near the 0.6640 level. The next major support is near the 0.6600 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.6600 support, the pair could decline toward the 0.6520 level in the near term.

Looking at crude oil prices, there was a fresh increase from the $66.90 zone and there could be a move toward $72.50.

Economic Releases

• Germany’s Services PMI for June 2023 - Forecast 54.1, versus 54.1 previous.
• Euro Zone Services PMI for June 2023 – Forecast 52.4, versus 52.4 previous.
• UK Services PMI for June 2023 – Forecast 53.7, versus 53.7 previous.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Despite an early-week upswing, oil prices have struggled to extend gains and remain bounded within a familiar range. Saudi Arabia announced extension of its voluntary output cut. Russia and Algeria offered to trim their August output and exports. But these decisions are more seen as a sign affirming a waning optimism in demand growth.

Technically, outlook in WTI crude oil is rather mixed for now. Repeated rejection by 55 D EMA is retaining bearishness. Yet there is no clear sign of extended selling.

Indeed, recent price actions could be interpreted as a triangle pattern that started in 74.74. If that's true, there is prospect of another bounce to resume the rebound from 63.67. Break of 72.57 resistance will solidify this case and push WTI through 74.74 resistance. Yet, upside would likely be capped by 100% projection of 63.67 to 74.74 from 66.94 at 78.01.

On the other hand, break of 66.94 support could prompt deeper selloff back to retest 63.67 low.

China's Caixin Services PMI for June plunged to 53.9, down from 57.1 in the previous month and significantly below the expectation of 56.2. The composite PMI also tumbled from 55.6 to a discouraging 52.5, marking the lowest readings since the growth cycle kick-started in January.

Wang Zhe, a senior economist at the Caixin Insight Group, commented on the less-than-promising data: "A slew of recent economic data suggests that China's recovery has yet to find a stable footing, with prominent issues including a lack of internal growth drivers, weak demand, and dimming prospects persisting."

Zhe emphasized the disparity between the manufacturing and services sectors, noting that "In June, Caixin China PMIs showed that conditions in the manufacturing sector lagged far behind services. Employment contracted, deflationary pressure mounted, and optimism waned in the manufacturing sector."

Despite the ongoing post-Covid rebound of the services sector, Zhe expressed concerns about the sustainability of the recovery, adding that "the services sector continued a post-Covid rebound, but the recovery was losing steam."

Full China Caixin PMI services release here.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, two of the world's largest oil producers, have decided to extend cuts to their oil production to support oil prices and boost income. This move comes despite weakened demand due to the sluggish economy. The voluntary reductions, which will continue through next year, have had a limited impact on oil prices, providing some relief to consumers worldwide and allowing US drivers to fill their tanks more affordably. The extension of cuts by Saudi Arabia indicates the uncertain outlook for fuel demand, even as travel increases. Both countries require sustained high oil revenue for their economic objectives. Russia, in particular, faces the challenge of Western sanctions, resulting in lower export revenue. Let's now see whatever clue the price action may hold for us.

US Dollar - H4 Timeframe

We will look at the US Dollar majorly because the Crude oil CFDs I will analyze in this piece are all paired against the US Dollar. The price action, as seen on the attached chart, shows the price leaning on a support trendline which sits perfectly within the vicinity of the 50 and 100 period moving averages; this suggests the likelihood of a bullish price action from the Dollar, which may be short-lived nonetheless.

Analyst’s Expectations:

• Direction: Bullish
• Target: 103.497
• Invalidation: 102.739

XTIUSD - H4 Timeframe

XTIUSD (US Oil) is currently trading within a consolidation pattern. The main reason why I am going to be somewhat conservative on my risk exposure in this trade is the fact that the Dollar seems to be prepping for a bullish recovery, which could negatively impact the price action here and cause a rejection from the resistance trendline I have drawn on the attached chart. To avoid unpleasant experiences, I will patiently wait for a break out of the consolidation zone before taking in trade in the direction of the breakout. Remember, a missed trade is much better than a lost one - protect yourself, folks!

Analyst’s Expectations:

• Direction: Bullish
• Target: 75.08
• Invalidation: 69.78

XBRUSD - H4 Timeframe

XBRUSD is creating a similar price action to what we have just seen on XTIUSD and will, as a result, be treated similarly. I expect to see the price break out of the zone before taking a position. This breakout will be the trigger required before taking a market stake.

Analyst’s Expectations:

• Direction: Bullish
• Target: 78.71
• Invalidation: 74.47

CONCLUSION

The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.

Litecoin (LTCUSD) shows a bullish sequence from 6.14.2022 low favoring further upside. Short term, rally from 3.11.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 3.11.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 103.41 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 71.37. The crypto currency has extended higher again in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 78.43 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 75.73. The crypto currency extends higher again in wave (iii) towards 88.79 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 84.48. Final leg wave (v) ended at 93.80 which completed wave ((i)). Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 81.84 with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure.

Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 86.48 and rally in wave (b) ended at 90.25. Wave (c) lower ended at 81.84 which completed wave ((ii)). Litecoin then turns higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 103, pullback in wave ii ended at 89.38. Wave iii higher ended at 111.22 and dips in wave iv ended at 102.74. Wave v higher ended at 114.92 which completed wave (i). Pullback in wave (ii) is in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (i), wave a ended at 105.1 and wave b rally ended at 109.69. Expect wave c lower to complete at 93.7 – 99.8 which should end wave (ii) in higher degree. As long as pivot at 81.84 low stays intact, expect buyers to appear at blue box of 93.7 -99.82 for further upside.

Litecoin (LTCUSD) 2 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

LTCUSD Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gA5RSe-WEM

• WTI crude oil broke daily Triangle
• Likely to rise to resistance level 72.80

WTI crude oil recently broke the resistance trendline of the daily Triangle from the end of May.

The breakout of this resistance zone this Triangle follows the earlier breakout of the round resistance level 70.00, which strengthened the bullish pressure on this instrument.

Given the strength of the nearby powerful support level 68.00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 72.80 (top of the previous minor correction 2 from June).

• NZDJPY broke resistance zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 91.00

NZDJPY currency pair rising steadily after the earlier breakout of the resistance zone located between the resistance level 89.00 and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from April.

The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active short-term impulse wave (iii) of the C-wave from June.

Given the strength of the active C-wave and the strong yen sales, NZDJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 91.00 (target price for the active C-wave).

It's been a relatively quiet session with the US bank holiday naturally weighing on activity and those remaining having an eye on Friday's jobs report but the day hasn't been without interest as the RBA opted against hiking interest rates again.

The central bank surprised last time out in raising rates another 25 basis points but this time around, policymakers opted for a hawkish pause. Like many other major central banks - BoE excluded - it has reached a point at which every decision could swing either way depending on recent developments.

Central banks are keen not to overtighten due to the immense pressure past tightening has already put on households and businesses but after being so late to start the process, they desperately don't want to pause too soon and risk inflicting higher rates for longer which could be much more damaging again.

It would obviously be easier if they had seen more progress to this point but inflation is proving stubborn and economies, so far, very resilient. Further tightening still looks likely at this stage, with markets pricing in a 75% chance that we see that by the August meeting.

Things are going to get more heated between Musk and Zuckerberg

Elon Musk may be aggravating his userbase at just the wrong time, with Meta announcing that it will launch its version of the platform, Threads, on Thursday. It will be a direct competitor to Twitter and, based on released screenshots, look and behave in a very similar fashion.

With Musk desperately trying to push people to pay a subscription fee for Twitter, Threads may offer a simple alternative that may force a rethink of that strategy. Given the userbase Meta already has, Musk can't afford to underestimate the threat that the new platform poses and it may be very hard to win the audience back if they rapidly switch en masse.

Oil quickly loses momentum despite output curbs

Oil prices are rising again today after giving back all of Monday's early gains and more as the session progressed. Buoyed by the news of Saudi Arabia extending its voluntary one million barrel output cut by a month to August, alongside Russia cutting exports by 500,000 in the same month, Brent crude rallied more than 1% and looked on course to increase its winning streak to four sessions but that's not how it turned out.

Now prices are rising again but remain shy of yesterday's peak and if it falls short today then doubts may grow around its ability to take the next step and even break above its recent trading range. That range has consolidated over the last couple of months but not to any significant degree that suggests a breakout is imminent, with prices recently fluctuating between $72 and $77.

A big hurdle to overcome for Gold

The gold recovery is continuing into a fourth day although so far it hasn't been particularly inspiring. We've seen a modest rebound since the yellow metal slipped below $1,900 and nothing has really improved fundamentally that would warrant any more. Central banks are still desperately trying to gather any evidence that inflation is on a sustainable path back to target and falling short.

The price has moved back towards a region that was a key area of support in May and early June and this could represent the first big test of the recovery. A move above the $1,930-$1,940 zone could be a bullish signal, at least in the short term, at which point $1,960, $1,980 and $2,000 could come back into focus. But that's a big hurdle to overcome first.