Sample Category Title

WTI crude oil: ⬆️ Buy

• WTI crude oil reversed from round support level 60.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 64.00

WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the support zone surrounding the round support level 60.00 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of May).

The upward reversal from the support level 60.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.

Given the strength of the nearby support level 60.00 and the oversold daily Stochastic, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 64.00.

FTSE 100: ⬆️ Buy

• FTSE 100 broke round resistance level 9330.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 9612.00

FTSE 100 index recently broke the resistance level 9330.00, which stopped the previous impulse waves (5) and (1).

The breakout of the resistance level 9330.00 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from September – which then broke the daily up channel from July.

Given the strong daily uptrend, FTSE 100 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 9612.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3).

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 8

Today's session saw the continuation of the weekly flows, with the US Dollar higher and Gold breaking new milestones. The US-Canada deal seems to be getting closer from the recent remarks made by Canada's Carney.

US Equities sparked a huge reversal higher with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs, yet again.

Nothing really explained yesterday's risk-off session, therefore dip buyers just came and bought things back.

The Dow remains a lagger throughout this week after showing just a wick above the 47,000 threshold.

In geopolitics, Trump mentioned in a roundtable talk that Middle East discussions are going towards the right direction and the US President should head to Egypt to finalize the Deal.

The Royal Bank of New Zealand also surprised Markets with a 50 bps Jumbo cut (which was 50% priced in ahead of the decision).

The news got followed with a huge selloff for the Kiwi before markets started to price out cuts later in 2026. A larger cut tends to generate higher economic prospects and future expectation expectations.

Hence, the NZD still recovered most of what it had lost. You can access more on the rate decision here.

Cross-Assets Daily Performance

Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView

When looking at this daily asset picture, one may ask himself: If everything is going up, then what is giving ?

The answer is in the Yen getting absolutely killed this week (take a look at USDJPY, catastrophic!). The CHF is also getting sold off quite aggressively with more dovish talks from the SNB – Carry trades are getting put back aggressively from what it seems.

This makes even more sense when looking at the huge rallies in Crypto and Equities around the world.

Kudos to the European Indices which are brushing off the usual French government mess ups and are rallying strongly nonetheless.

A picture of today's performance for major currencies

Currency Performance, October 8 – Source: OANDA Labs

FX volatility is back strong!

Look at the huge recovery in the NZD, something to keep an eye on and remember.

Apart from that, weekly flows are continuing with the AUD still gaining (very consitent performer of the past month) with the CAD and USD just following each other.

As mentioned just before, both the CHF and JPY are getting sold off aggressively in what could be a return of the Carry Trade.

A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's sessions

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.

The next 24 hours in markets will be dominated by central bank chatter.

The daily session concludes with a trio of Fed speakers — Kashkari, Barr, and Kashkari again — followed by Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations (20:00 ET).

Thursday should be busier, even with the absence of US/BLS data : the ECB’s Meeting Accounts (07:30 ET) open the European session, followed by Fed Chair Powell at 08:30 ET, the US Jobless Claims, and a long lineup of Fed officials including Bowman, Barr, and Daly.

Across the Pacific, traders will also watch New Zealand’s Business NZ PMI and a key speech from RBA Governor Bullock (18:00 ET) for clues on regional policy direction.

Safe Trades!

The dollar is gaining, rebounding from its low point set at the last Fed meeting on 17 September. It is quite common for the dollar to rise, being the lesser evil for investors, rather than due to its own strength. The DXY gained 3% to 98.55 from its low of 95.83, set moments after the Fed cut rates and signalled further policy easing. The bearish event itself was a turning point, as we saw a whole series of factors undermining the value of other currencies to a greater extent.

The latest news was a rather unexpected quarter-point cut in the RBNZ’s key rate, which took about 1% off the NZDUSD immediately after the decision was announced. Although the pair has now recovered about half of its initial losses, it has reached its six-month low, falling to 0.5730. A ‘death cross’ is forming in the pair, a bearish technical analysis signal, when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. This signal is reinforced by the fact that both curves are above the price. Such a signal is often followed by more intense selling. However, even without such a signal, the pair has been moving in a downward channel since the beginning of July, touching its lower boundary two weeks ago and today.

The change of leader of Japan’s largest party triggered a sell-off of the yen. The USDJPY has already added 4.5% to its lows at the end of last week, reaching 152.8, its highest level since February. Sanae Takaichi promises to stimulate the economy through government spending and soft monetary policy. As a result, long-term government bond yields are hitting historic highs, as investors anticipate an increase in placements and fear problems with servicing the national debt. The currency, as a natural stabiliser of such imbalances, tends to decline. We saw a similar impulse in 2022, which caused the USDJPY to rise by about a third in seven months. While we do not expect such a surge this time, we still anticipate growth up to the area of recent highs at 159-162, and the continuation of a similar policy in the long term could take the pair to 200.

EURUSD has fallen 2.5% from its peak of 1.1919, testing support at 1.1600 in the middle of the week. The pair managed to do so in August, but the political crisis in France and growing difficulties in German industry are now working in favour of the bears. Although the ECB says it has ended its policy easing, the euro has a strong direct correlation with economic growth, forcing EURUSD to seek equilibrium at a lower level, possibly around 1.1000.

A new wave of an unusual trade has been unfolding: A steep rally in Gold, coinciding with a steep rally in the US Dollar.

Today’s piece will focus on the latter, but it is still an interesting subject that marks an essential functioning of markets: It’s all about what is priced in (and what is not).

You have probably seen the headlines, but Gold officially breached the $4,000 milestone overnight, propelled by a larger RBNZ Rate cut, weakening the Kiwi dollar and trouble in Japanese and European (French) politics.

A US Government Shutdown is also in the works. But wait, why is the Greenback also rallying?

Mentioned after the FOMC September press conference, a less dovish than expected FED with, despite weakening, still strong US Data is forcing a slower rate cut path ahead, providing a floor to the USD.

Also, US Dollar bearishness had been such a prominent theme throughout the first half of 2025 that things couldn’t get much worse except for an unpleasant tariff outcome and degrading diplomatic US relations.

A bad-looking Government deficit is also priced, but this is not just US-specific, and it is one of the core reasons why Gold loves this trend so much.

Hence, as these themes play out and things actually degrade elsewhere, relative strength comes in. And it is here that the US Dollar wins in the current picture.

Let's explore this in a Dollar Index technical review.

Dollar Index (DXY) Multi-timeframe technical analysis

Daily Chart

Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The USD is attempting to break above the topline containing breakout attempts since early May 2025.

Fundamentals have changed a bit since: Tariffs are well-implemented, but they're not as harsh as they could have been on the economy.

So, the Economy is still fairly strong, hence less cuts are needed (and rates are still above 4%!).

This, combined with a daily double bottom at the yearly support, led to a strong technical bounce above the flat-lined 50-Day MA. With Momentum turning positive, a breakout could come into play.

Keep an eye on the Topline: A close above would confirm this outcome, while a rejection points to further sideways action.

4H Chart and levels

Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Zooming closer, we see Dollar bulls attempting to break the May topline, with the steep rally that started this week stalling a bit.

Nonetheless, the 4H MA 50 is starting to tilt upwards to catch up with prices and may cross above the flat MA 200, a bullish sign.

One thing to consider however is: How far could such a rally go with the current fundamentals?

A breakout in the US Dollar could point towards the 100.00 level, but cuts are still priced in for 2026, and the labor market is slowing.

This is why such a breakout would be more favorable for a repricing between 98.00 to 100.00 rather than a full return above the threshold. Of course, things may change as prices reach these levels and bulls still have to push higher.

Support Levels:

• August highs, Immediate pivot around 98.50
• 98.00 Support
• August Range support 97.25 to 97.60
• 2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00

Resistance Levels:

• session highs and May topline 98.99
• 99.40 June selling pivot
• 100.00 Main resistance zone

1H Chart

Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Buyers will have to break above the daily highs at 98.99 (a close above 99.00 may attract further attention).

On the other hand, sellers will want to defend that exact same level and push prices below the post-FOMC Sep 25 highs at 98.60 to retake the short-term advantage.

A short-term upward channel is also forming, watch for its support and resistance levels.

Safe Trades!

Markets

The topic of fiscal sustainability for sure still has to role to play in the (near) future as markets are pondering an acceptable level for (sovereign) credit and other risk premia. However after the Japan/France driven stress over the previous days, the risk repositioning takes a breather. As a point in case, the Japanese 30-y yield today eased 14 bps (shorter maturities hardly changed). In Europe yields also eased. In France, the caretaker Prime Minister Lecornu indicated that there might still be a (admittedly) difficult road to finding a budget by the end of the year, reducing the chances of early elections. However for approving a budget, the socialist party apparently has set a higher price including a wealth tax and watering down/suspending the 2023 approved pensions reform. Even as this would only exacerbate the budgetary problems over time, Lecornu indicates that he still aims to reduce next year’s budget deficit below 5% of GDP. Whatever the final outcome, markets apparently again sees a somewhat bigger chance on some kind of muddling through scenario, rather than the outright chaos of new elections. The French 10-y spread vs Germany doesn’t widen any further (84 bps from 86 bps). At the same time, bond market conditions in EMU are easing a bit overall with German yields declining in a bull flattening move (2-y -2 bps; 30-y -3.5 bps). US yields follow this broader move in a session devoid of specific US eco news with yields ceding between 1.5 bps (2 y) and 3 bps (30-y). Later today, US investors still have a $ 39 bln 10-y Treasury auction and the Minutes of the September 17 meeting to look out for. The later might provide interesting insights of the internal FOMC debate, but the dots already suggested that there was absolutely no streamlined view on the Fed rate path going forward. Receding pressure from the fiscal sustainability topic/easier financial conditions also again supports equities after some hesitation over the previous sessions. The Eurostoxx 50 adds 0.4%. The CAC 40 even outperforms its European peers (1%). US indices open little changed.

On FX markets, the France-driven decline of the euro slows (EUR/USD 1.1635), but the picture remains fragile. The yen remains in de defensive (USD/JPY 152.50). Even so, recent moves in the yen already caused Fin Min Kato to warn that he will closely monitory excessive FX moves. At some point it also might support the case for the BOJ to still consider further policy tightening in October. For now the yen trend is still obvious, but some alert is warranted. To be continued.

News & Views

Hungarian inflation remained stable on a monthly basis for a second consecutive month in September. Food prices fell by 0.2% M/M and energy prices by 0.1%. They helped offset price increase in for example clothing and footwear (+1.5% M/M). The price of services decreased by 0.4% on average, within which recreational service prices – due to seasonal effects – lessened by 6.3%. Compared with September of 2024, price growth was unchanged compared to August as well at 4.3% Y/Y (vs 4.4% consensus). Energy prices are on average 10.6% higher, services became 5.9% more expensive, food prices are 4.7% higher and consumer durable prices were up by 2.5% Y/Y. The forint slightly recovers today from yesterday’s losses triggered by political pressure on the central bank to lower its policy rate from the current 6.5%.

The Bank of England published its quarterly financial stability update. Risks associated with geopolitical tensions, global fragmentation of trade and financial markets, and pressures on sovereign debt markets remain elevated. The risk of a sharp market correction has increased according the UK central bank. Despite persistent material uncertainty around the global macroeconomic outlook, risky asset valuations have increased and credit spreads have compressed. On a number of measures, equity market valuations appear stretched, particularly for technology companies focused on Artificial Intelligence (AI). There have been some notable credit defaults in the US automotive sector underscoring some of the risks around high leverage, weak underwriting standards, opacity, and complex structures. Term premia in sovereign bond markets have increased with some key jurisdictions having experienced political uncertainty over the level and pace of reforms to improve the fiscal outlooks. A sudden or significant change in perceptions of Federal Reserve credibility could result in a sharp re-pricing of US dollar assets.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1668; (P) 1.1699; (R1) 1.1747; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. A medium term top is likely formed at 1.1917. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.1390 support, or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, above 1.1682 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1778 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0176 (2025 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low). 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916 was already met. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.1390 support holds, and firm break of 1.2000 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.1390 will suggest that rise from 1.0176 has already completed and bring deeper fall to 55 W EMA (now at 1.1265) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3382; (P) 1.3435; (R1) 1.3478; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. With 1.3535 resistance intact, further decline is mildly in favor. On the downside, break of 1.3322 will resume the fall from 1.3725 to 1.3140 support. On the upside, though, firm break of 1.3535 will argue that pullback from 1.3725 has already completed, and bring stronger rise to retest 1.3725/87 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. But strong resistance could be seen from 1.4248 (2021 high) to limit upside. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3176) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7956; (P) 0.7974; (R1) 0.8000; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.8004) will suggest that rise from 0.7828 is already correcting whole fall from 0.9200. Further rise should the be seen to 0.8170 resistance and possibly above. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7944 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).