Sample Category Title

Consumer spending and income growth both improved at a solid pace in August. Personal income rose 0.4% month-over-month (m/m), the same as in the month prior. Growth in wages and salaries eased to 03% m/m from 0.5% in July, while government transfer payments rose at the same rate of 0.3% - an improvement from a flat print in the month prior.

Consumer spending grew 0.6% m/m in nominal terms, coming on the heels of 0.5% gains in the two months prior. With spending growing at a slightly faster clip than income, the personal savings rate eased to 4.6% in August from an upwardly revised 4.8% in July (previously 4.4%). The personal savings rate was revised higher between 2020 and 2025, with the last two years receiving an upgrade of 0.8 percentage point on average, compared to prior readings. The rate has been trending lower over the last four months.

Spending was up 0.3% m/m on an inflation-adjusted basis, down from a 0.4% gain in the month prior (previously 0.3%) and a notably upgraded 0.3% gain in June (previously 0.1%). Goods spending remained strong, advancing by 0.7% for the second month in a row. Real spending on durable goods rose by 0.9% m/m, while spending on non-durable goods rose at a slower but still decent clip (+0.5%). Meanwhile, services spending continued to edge up at 0.2% for the third month in a row.

Core PCE – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – rose by 0.2% m/m on the month from a downwardly revised 0.2% in July. In annual terms, core PCE inflation rose to 2.9%, the same as in July, with the measure showing a very mild continued increase since April (2.6%).

Key Implications

Today's report should be viewed with yesterday's GDP and consumer spending revisions in mind. Consumer spending growth for Q2 was raised to 2.5% annualized from 1.6% previously, reflecting a stronger showing in services spending. Today's report, which shows real spending momentum remained healthy during the June to August period, builds on that positive momentum, leading to a notable upgrade in our tracking for consumer spending in the third quarter – now at around 3%, from 2% previously. Coupled with upward revisions to personal income and the savings rate, and a more recent pullback in initial jobless claims, the data suggests that the U.S. consumer is in somewhat better shape than previously thought.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge remains above the Fed's comfort zone and has recorded a mild acceleration recently. With businesses likely to increasingly pass on tariff-related costs to consumers, the risk remains for inflation to increase further over the near-term. Overall, an improved growth trend and persistent inflation lean in favor of the Fed potentially having to do a little less in the way of rate cuts to support the economy. This may put some doubt on the interest rate path, though it does not derail the case for two more rate cuts by the end of this year.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.93; (P) 149.43; (R1) 150.30; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 145.47 is in progress for retesting 150.90. Break there will resume whole rise from 139.87 to 151.22 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 148.55 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7953; (P) 0.7984; (R1) 0.8026; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Firm break of 0.8006 resistance argue that fall from 0.8170 has completed as a five-waver at 0.7828. USDCHF should then be in larger scale corrective bounce and should target 0.8170 resistance next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7908 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3290; (P) 1.3378; (R1) 1.3433; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.3725, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3787, is in progress. Break of 1.3332 support will target 1.3140. On the upside, above 1.3524 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3535 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress, and would target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. However, with 1.4248 resistance (2021 high) intact, this rally is more likely a corrective move. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3157) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Canadian GDP rose by 0.2% m/m in July, partly reversing three consecutive monthly contractions. The print was a tick hotter than consensus expectations.

Compositionally, 11 of 20 industries registered an increase on the month. Goods industries rebounded by a hefty 0.6% m/m, while the services sector nudged higher by 0.1% m/m.

On the goods side, a 1.4% m/m gain in the mining, oil & gas sector made the biggest contribution to headline growth. A 0.7% m/m increase in the manufacturing sector also provided an assist after falling last month.  Elsewhere, the agriculture and construction sectors were up by a softer 0.1% m/m.

On the services side, gains in wholesale trade (0.6% m/m), transportation and warehousing (0.6% m/m) and real estate (0.3% m/m) did most of the heavy lifting. A weaker month for retail trade (-1.0% m/m) and information and cultural services (-0.6% m/m) counterbalanced some of the services side gains.

The advanced guidance for flat growth in August GDP is the result of gains in wholesale and retail trade that are offset by a reversal in the oil & gas, manufacturing, and transportation sectors.

Key Implications

Growth in Canada's tariff-impacted industries contributed most to July's brighter-than expected print. Stabilization across these sectors underpins our view that GDP growth in the third quarter is set to recover modestly after last quarter's trade-driven contraction. Early-tracking suggests sub-1% annualized growth in Q3, which is in line with our expectations, and a touch below the Bank of Canada's (BoC) most recent projections.

The BoC will take this reading in stride, as they continue to weigh the risks around inflation and growth. Looking forward, we maintain our view that the BoC has room to cut rates again in the fourth quarter. The growth backdrop is expected to gradually recover over the next couple quarters, but economic slack will persist. What's more, the outlook continues to face considerable uncertainty, not least as Canada and the U.S. soon enter USMCA renegotiations.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1622; (P) 1.1688; (R1) 1.1732; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, sustained break of 55 D EMA (1.1667) will argue that 1.1917 is already a medium term top. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.1390 support next. On the upside, above 1.1734 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1819 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0176 (2025 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low). 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916 was already met. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.1390 support holds, and firm break of 1.2000 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.1390 will suggest that rise from 1.0176 has already completed and bring deeper fall to 55 W EMA (now at 1.1214).

The forex markets are relatively steady in early US trading, with most pairs consolidating after a week of sharp moves. The latest batch of US data offered few surprises, leaving traders reluctant to push directional bets ahead of next week’s pivotal employment report.

US PCE inflation for August came in broadly in line with expectations, confirming that disinflation has stalled for now. Meanwhile, spending remained resilient, highlighting the strength of US demand. The combination gives the Fed every reason to proceed cautiously.

That caution, however, does not rule out further easing. Officials have stressed the need to insure against risks to employment, and a weak non-farm payrolls report next week could quickly tilt the balance toward another cut.

For now, the Dollar looks set to digest some of this week’s gains into the weekly close. Positioning remains constructive after strong GDP, claims, and durable goods data earlier in the week, but the lack of fresh catalysts is tempering momentum.

Elsewhere, Euro is holding slightly firmer after the ECB’s consumer survey showed inflation expectations ticking higher. That supports the case for the ECB to remain on hold, barring a steep downturn in growth. Canadian Dollar, by contrast, showed little reaction to stronger-than-expected July GDP as advance data signaled stagnation in August, leaving recovery fragile.

Overall on the week, Dollar leads the performance board, followed by Swiss Franc and Euro. At the bottom, Kiwi lags behind, with Loonie and Yen also weak. Sterling and the Aussie sit mid-pack.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.61%. DAX is up 0.77%. CAC is up 0.86%. UK 10-year yield fell -0.022 to 4.737. Germany 10-year yield fell -0.027 to 2.748. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.87%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.35%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.65%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.18%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.01 to 1.659.

US PCE inflation matches forecasts, income and spending beat

US inflation data for August came in largely as expected. Headline PCE rose 2.7% yoy, slightly up from July’s 2.6%. Core PCE held steady at 2.9% yoy. On the month, headline and core rose 0.3% mom and 0.2% mom, respectively, both in line with consensus.

Beyond inflation, the demand side showed more momentum. Personal income climbed 0.4% mom, above the 0.3% forecast. Personal spending gained 0.6% mom, also beating estimates of 0.5%.

For the Fed, the data reinforces the case for continued but measured easing. Inflation progress remains gradual, while firmer demand signals that the economy is not yet at risk of stalling.

Canada GDP rebounds 0.2% mom in July, first gain in four months

Canada’s GDP expanded 0.2% mom in July, beating expectations of 0.1% and marking the first increase in four months. The rebound was driven primarily by goods-producing industries, which rose 0.6% mom after three straight months of contraction, with every sector in the grouping recording gains.

Services output was more subdued, rising just 0.1% mom as wholesale trade and real estate contributed modestly while retail trade slipped. In total, only 11 of 20 industrial sectors posted growth.

Looking ahead, advance estimates suggest GDP was flat in August, with gains in wholesale and retail offset by declines in resource extraction, manufacturing, and transport.

ECB consumer survey: Inflation expectations edge higher, growth outlook weak

Eurozone households lifted their inflation expectations in August, according to the ECB’s latest survey. Median expectations for the next 12 months rose to 2.8% from 2.6% in July, while five-year expectations climbed from 2.1% to 2.2%, the highest since August 2022. Three-year expectations were steady at 2.5%.

At the same time, the growth outlook remained grim, with respondents predicting output to shrink by -1.2% over the next 12 months. Job worries also inched higher, with unemployment expectations up to 10.7% from 10.6%.

The survey highlights a lingering inflation mindset among households, even as economic prospects stay fragile. For the ECB, the persistence of medium-term price expectations near or above target may limit the scope for further easing if growth continues to stagnate.

Tokyo CPI core stays at 2.5% in September, core-core slows

Tokyo inflation came in softer than expected in September, with core CPI (ex-fresh food) unchanged at 2.5% yoy versus forecasts of 2.8% yoy. The moderation was largely attributed to measures by the metropolitan government, including cuts to childcare fees and water charges, easing some of the burden from rising living costs.

Core-core inflation, stripping out fresh food and energy, slowed sharply from 3.0% yoy to 2.5% yoy, while headline CPI was also steady at 2.5% yoy. Food inflation excluding fresh items cooled to 6.9% yoy from 7.4% yoy, highlighting a broadening slowdown in price pressures.

The weaker data may give the BoJ some breathing room, though markets still price another 25bps hike in the months ahead. Opinion remains divided on whether policymakers act as soon as October or hold off until January.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1622; (P) 1.1688; (R1) 1.1732; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, sustained break of 55 D EMA (1.1667) will argue that 1.1917 is already a medium term top. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.1390 support next. On the upside, above 1.1734 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1819 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0176 (2025 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low). 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916 was already met. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.1390 support holds, and firm break of 1.2000 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.1390 will suggest that rise from 1.0176 has already completed and bring deeper fall to 55 W EMA (now at 1.1214).

Canada’s GDP expanded 0.2% mom in July, beating expectations of 0.1% and marking the first increase in four months. The rebound was driven primarily by goods-producing industries, which rose 0.6% mom after three straight months of contraction, with every sector in the grouping recording gains.

Services output was more subdued, rising just 0.1% mom as wholesale trade and real estate contributed modestly while retail trade slipped. In total, only 11 of 20 industrial sectors posted growth.

Looking ahead, advance estimates suggest GDP was flat in August, with gains in wholesale and retail offset by declines in resource extraction, manufacturing, and transport.

Full Canada GDP release here.

US inflation data for August came in largely as expected. Headline PCE rose 2.7% yoy, slightly up from July’s 2.6%. Core PCE held steady at 2.9% yoy. On the month, headline and core rose 0.3% mom and 0.2% mom, respectively, both in line with consensus.

Beyond inflation, the demand side showed more momentum. Personal income climbed 0.4% mom, above the 0.3% forecast. Personal spending gained 0.6% mom, also beating estimates of 0.5%.

For the Fed, the data reinforces the case for continued but measured easing. Inflation progress remains gradual, while firmer demand signals that the economy is not yet at risk of stalling.

Full US personal income and outlays release here.

Key takeaways

• SPX 500 pullback: Index fell -1.9% over three sessions from its all-time high, testing key support at 6,580/6,560 near its 20-day moving average.
• Bullish setup intact: price remains within its short- and medium-term uptrend, with momentum indicators pointing to easing bearish pressure.
• Sector rotation support: Consumer Discretionary’s outperformance over Consumer Staples signals potential for a bullish reversal in SPX 500.
• Key levels to watch: a rebound above 6,635 could extend gains to 6,670/6,680 and 6,730/6,745; failure below 6,560 risks a deeper slide to 6,530/6,460.

Since hitting the latest fresh all-time high of 6,710 on Monday, 22 September 2025, the US SPX 500 CFD Index (a proxy of the S&P 500 E-mini futures) has dropped for three consecutive sessions and shed -1.9% (high to low) to print an intraday low of 6,580 on Thursday, 25 September 2025.

The recent corrective pullback in the US SPX 500 CFD Index has been attributed to overvaluation concerns in mega-cap technology stocks and a potentially less dovish Fed, where a stronger US Q2 GDP growth reduced the odds of a December Fed rate cut to 58% from 79% a week ago.

Let’s now focus on the latest short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), relevant key elements, and key levels to watch for the US SPX 500 CFD Index from a technical analysis perspective ahead of today’s key US PCE data (inflation, personal income, and spending) releases.

Fig. 1: US SPX 500 CFD Index minor trend as of 26 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

The three-day sell-off of 1.9% seen in the US SPX 500 Index has not damaged its short-term (minor) and medium-term uptrend phases.

Maintain a bullish bias for a potential near-term recovery above 6,580/6,560 key short-term pivotal support. A clearance above 6,635 is likely to increase the odds of a bullish reversal towards the next intermediate resistances at 6,670/6,680 before the next resistance at 6,730/6,745 (Fibonacci extension cluster).

Key elements

• The current price actions of the US SPX 500 CFD Index are still oscillating above its 20-day, 50-day moving averages and within a medium-term ascending channel in place since 22 May 2025 low.
• The 6,580/6,560 key short-term pivotal support of the US SPX 500 CFD Index confluences closely with the rising 20-day moving average.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the US SPX 500 CFD Index has shaped a bullish breakout above its former descending trendline resistance, which suggests that the recent bearish momentum has eased.
• The relative chart of the cyclical-oriented equal-weighted S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector ETF versus the defensive-oriented equal-weighted S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector ETF has rebounded after retesting its 20-day moving average. This development signals continued outperformance in Consumer Discretionary over Consumer Staples, reinforcing the case for a potential bullish reversal in the US SPX 500 CFD Index.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

Failure to hold at the 6,580/6,560 key short-term support on the US SPX 500 CFD Index invalidates the bullish reversal scenario for a deeper minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next support at 6,530 (also the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel).

A break below 6,530 may trigger a deeper slide towards 6,460 (also the rising 50-day moving average) next.