Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 174.51; (P) 174.73; (R1) 174.96; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 175.41 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, however, firm break of 173.88 resistance turned support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback to 172.11 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current rally from 154.77 is still tentatively seen as resuming the larger up trend. Firm break of 175.41 (2024 high) will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 from 154.77 (2025 low) at 186.31. However, sustained break of 169.69 support will delay this bullish case, and probably extend the correction from 175.41 with another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8727; (P) 0.8739; (R1) 0.8755; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is back on the upside as rise resume after brief consolidations. Decisive break of 0.8752 resistance will resume larger rally to 61.8% projection of 0.8354 to 0.8752 from 0.8631 at 0.8877, which is close to 0.8867 fibonacci level. However, break of 0.8694 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8631 support, to extend near term sideway trading.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise could still be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8518) will argue that the pattern has completed and bring retest of 0.8221 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7794; (P) 1.7826; (R1) 1.7870; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point and some more consolidations could be seen. On the upside, break of 1.7929 temporary top will resume the rebound from 1.7588 to retest 1.8155 high. Firm break there will resume the whole rise from 1.7245. However, break of 1.7588 will resume the fall from 1.8155 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9315; (P) 0.9334; (R1) 0.9345; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, firm break of 0.9354 resistance will confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 0.9394 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.9311 will resume the fall from 0.9452 to 0.9265 support.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1622; (P) 1.1688; (R1) 1.1732; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside as fall from 1.1724 is in progress. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, sustained break of 55 D EMA (1.1667) will argue that 1.1917 is already a medium term top. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.1390 support next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1819 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0176 (2025 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low). 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916 was already met. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.1390 support holds, and firm break of 1.2000 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.1390 will suggest that rise from 1.0176 has already completed and bring deeper fall to 55 W EMA (now at 1.1214).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.93; (P) 149.43; (R1) 150.30; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 145.47 is in progress for retesting 150.90. Break there will resume whole rise from 139.87 to 151.22 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 148.55 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3290; (P) 1.3378; (R1) 1.3433; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.3725, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3787, is in progress. Break of 1.3332 support will target 1.3140. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3535 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress, and would target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. However, with 1.4248 resistance (2021 high) intact, this rally is more likely a corrective move. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3157) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7953; (P) 0.7984; (R1) 0.8026; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 0.8006 resistance argue that fall from 0.8170 has completed as a five-waver at 0.7828. USDCHF should then be in larger scale corrective bounce and should target 0.8170 resistance next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7908 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6509; (P) 0.6556; (R1) 0.6587; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.6545) will confirm rejection by 0.6713 fibonacci resistance, and bring deeper fall to 0.6413 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6627 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and path the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Markets

A two-day rally by the US dollar brought it to its highest levels in about a month. The trade-weighted index closed at 98.55 yesterday. EUR/USD dipped to 1.1666, extending the correction lower from mid-September’s failed attempt for a topside break from the sideways trading range. USD/JPY came just shy of the 150 big figure. Renewed dollar strength came on the heels of a strong set US economic data. US Q2 GDP was revised upwards on higher personal consumption and jobless claims for a second week straight unexpectedly dropped. The level (218k) was the lowest since July and sowed doubts on whether the labour market is as weak(ening) as the Fed currently believes. With a stronger dollar came higher US yields. Net daily changes varied between +5.1 (2-yr) and near-flat (30-yr). European yields rose as well, with the belly underperforming the wings. The 2-yr swap yields punched through the recent September highs to close at levels last seen early April, prior to president Trump’s Liberation Day. Gilts underperformed. Yields rose 6.6-8.8 bps across the curve with the long end slightly lagging the rest. Demand in a series of sub-par gilt auctions this week was the lowest in several years. While the DMO easily raised the amounts targeted, it does indicate markets’ declining appetite for gilts as we go into the annual Autumn Budget announcement end November. Sterling grinded lower. EUR/GBP’s closing level was the highest since end 2023 (0.8741).

Overnight news flow is dominated by President Trump announcing some new tariffs and reviving the trade topic in doing so. Branded pharmaceuticals will be slapped a 100% tariff, starting October 1. Exemptions are offered to companies that are either “breaking ground” and/or already constructing manufacturing sites in the US. Other tariff announcements include a 25% levy on heavy trucks and a 50% charge on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities. They are introduced under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, so falling outside the scope of the reciprocal tariffs that are currently being investigated for its legality while remaining in place at least through October 14. The impact for regions such as the EU could (conditional tense intended) stay limited since the 15% trade deal struck with the US is considered to be overruling. The US is said to announce other duties as well in coming weeks, including on semiconductors and critical minerals. In the meantime and from a daily perspective, we’ll be looking at the release of the August PCE deflators. A slight acceleration is expected on a headline basis to 2.7% while the core measure should match July’s 2.9%. The attention is focused at whether or not we’ll see more tariff-related inflation filtering through. If so, that could further question the Fed’s ability to deliver two more cuts this year. Money markets aren’t so sure anymore and that’s been supportive to (ST) yields and the dollar. EUR/USD 1.1557/1.1573 serves as a first support.

News & Views

Inflation in the Japanese capital region declined by 0.1% M/M in September to stabilize at a downwardly revised 2.5% Y/Y. Consensus feared an acceleration to 2.8% Y/Y. Core measures slowed even more. Without fresh food prices, prices fell by 0.2% M/M (2.5% Y/Y stable). Also abstracting energy prices left them 0.3% lower (2.5% Y/Y from 3% Y/Y). Lower services prices (-0.4% M/M) contrasted with region goods prices (+0.2% M/M). The unexpected slowdown in Tokyo inflation has likely to do with local legislation (waiver of childcare fees for firstborns) and is unlikely to be repeated in national numbers to be released on October 24, one week before a potential pivotal Bank of Japan meeting (Oct 30; first rate hike since January?).

Dallas Fed president Logan made the case for modernizing the FOMC’s operating target rate. The FOMC began publicly targeting the fed funds rate in the mid-1990s which is now outdated. A repo rate would provide a more robust target and allow the Fed to adjust proactively and planfully. She proposes switching to the tri-party general collateral rate (TGCR) which is cleaner as it incorporates more than $1tn a day in risk-free transactions that represent a marginal cost of funds and marginal return on investment for a large number of participants.