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Natural Gas has been showing some interesting price action lately, and for traders who use Elliott Wave analysis, the current setup is worth a closer look. The market has been moving through a double three correction characterized by a series of lower lows and lower highs. Both the daily and 4-hour charts suggest we might be approaching a turning point. Instead of guessing where price might go next, Elliott Wave helps us understand the structure behind the moves—giving us a clearer idea of what could be coming. In this post, we’ll break down what the wave counts are showing on both timeframes, highlight key levels for traders and highligh invalidaion level for the wave count. We will also explain why patience might be the smartest move right now. Let’s take a look at the charts and see what they’re telling us.

Natural Gas Daily Elliott Wave Analysis September 25, 2025

The chart below highlights a year-long rally in Natural Gas from the March 2024 low to the March 2025 peak, unfolding in a clear 5-wave impulsive structure. Within this move, we count 21 distinct swings, supported by momentum divergence between waves (3) and (5)—a classic sign of an impulse wave nearing completion. As per Elliott Wave guidelines, a 5-wave advance is typically followed by a corrective phase in 3, 7, or 11 swings. The initial pullback from the peak took the form of a Zigzag correction, bottoming at $2.967 on April 24, 2025. While this could have marked the end of the correction, the subsequent rally failed to hold, unfolding in just 3 waves and breaking below the $2.967 low on August 12. This breakdown created a 5-swing decline from the March 10 peak, which remains incomplete since corrective sequences unfold in 3, 7, or 11 swings. Based on this structure and the incomplete sequence, we anticipate one more swing lower toward the $2.100–$1.619 zone to complete the 7-swing correction. From there, Natural Gas could resume its larger bullish trend. A break below August 22 low ($2.622) is needed to confirm the last swing lower has started. Until then, a double correction higher in wave B can’t be ruled out [Ref alternate view below]

Please note, a break below the March 2024 low at $1.494 would invalidate this outlook and suggest a deeper correction is underway.

Natural Gas Daily Elliott Wave Analysis September 25, 2025 [ALT VIEW]

The chart below shows an alternate scenario where wave B is forming as a double correction. In this view, we expect one more push higher before the final move down begins. Price could retest the descending trend line, which connects the highs from March 10 and June 20, 2025. The zone between $3.342 and $3.478 represents the 100%–123.6% Fibonacci extension of wave ((w)) compared to wave ((x)). This is a typical area where wave ((y)) could complete. If price reaches this zone and starts to turn lower, it may confirm the end of the correction and signal the next leg down.

Ethereum: ⬇️ Sell

• Ethereum broke support area
• Likely to fall to support level 3714.00

Ethereum cryptocurrency recently broke the support area between the key support level 4090.00 (which stopped the previous corrections 4 and A) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from the start of August.

The breakout of this ssupport area accelerated the active short-term impulse wave C of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from the end of August.

Ethereum cryptocurrency can be expected to fall further to the next support level 3714.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave C).

Markets

Aaaand they’re back at the center of attention again. UK gilts underperform compared to Bunds and Treasuries, especially – you guessed it – at the long end of the curve. The 10-30 year bucket adds 5 bps. A string of sub-par UK gilt auctions this week has been the trigger. While Debt Management Office had no problem in raising the amounts targeted, some of the demand measures were the weakest in a couple of years. That was the case for the 5-yr and 30-yr auctions earlier this week as well as for today’s 9-yr and 13-yr sale. It is seen as investors beginning to worry for a growing gaping hole in public finances that needs to be plugged at the annual Autumn Budget end-November. Measures such as the Bank of England skewing bond sales (QT) or the DMO skewing auctions to the short end of the curve are just a window-dressing attempt and do nothing about the underlying problem of consistent overspending. Keep doing that and we fear a fiscal reckoning from markets. EUR/GBP tried to capitalize on sterling weakness and attacked the 2025 highs in the mid 0.87-0.88 area for a third time in as many months. GBP/USD slipped below 1.34 and is on track for the lowest closing level since early August. The risk off mood isn’t particularly helpful for GBP either. Stocks lose around 1%, pressured by a sudden flip in US yields higher. Here it’s the front end that underperforms (+6 bps at some point before cutting that to 4.5 bps currently) following a surprise drop in jobless claims (218k) to the lowest level since July. We understand markets’ growing sensitivity vs the labour market, but this kind of mood swings to what is known as a notoriously volatile series doesn’t cease to amaze us. Other US eco data included an upward revision to (now really outdated) Q2 GDP growth (3.8% annualized from 3.3%) thanks to higher personal consumption (2.5% from 1.6%) as well as to the Q2 PCE price indicators. Durable goods orders came in on the stronger side of expectations except for the gauge used as an investment proxy in GDP calculations (shipments non-defense ex. aircrafts, -0.3% vs +0.3% expected). The dollar translates widening yield differentials (German rates add around 1-3 bps) into gains against the common currency. EUR/USD dips below the 1.17 big figure, confirming yesterday’s break below the short-term upward sloping trendline doing so. DXY rallies beyond the 98 barrier to the strongest level in three weeks. USD/JPY is pushing towards the upper bound of the summer’s sideways trading range (excluding the end-July failed outbreak attempt) in the 149+ area.

News & Views

The Swiss national Bank left its policy rate as broadly expected unchanged at 0%. The updated inflation outlook, conditional on a 0% policy rate over the full horizon, is unchanged compared with June: an average of respectively 0.2%-0.5%-0.5% in 2025-2027, implying inflation remaining stuck in the lower half of the 0%-2% inflation target. Swiss economic growth was weak in the second quarter after an increasingly strong Q1 (frontrunning tariffs). The economic outlook has deteriorated significantly due to higher US tariffs (39%) with the SNB expecting growth of 1-1.5% for this year as a whole and of just under 1% for 2026. The SNB remains willing to the active in the FX market as necessary, but there’s no specific reference to CHF strength. In four weeks, the SNB for the first time releases Minutes of its deliberations. They can give more insight on views on FX, if any, and whether they could trigger the high hurdle of returning to negative interest rates or not. SNB President Schlegel today stressed high risks tied to NIRP. EUR/CHF was unmoved today, trading near 0.9340.

The ECB posted an article on its blog called “when groceries bite: the role of food prices for inflation in the euro area”. The authors find that EMU headline inflation has fallen back to the 2% inflation target, but that food prices remain stubbornly high. In August, food inflation was the highest among HICP categories at 3.2% Y/Y with prices about 33% above pre-pandemic levels. Key drivers are energy and fertiliser costs (post-Ukraine war), labour cost increases and climate-related disruptions. Some of them are long term structural trends which can result in persistent inflationary pressure. Distinguishing between cyclical and structural drivers was part of this year’s strategic assessment by the ECB. Food prices matter even more to the central bank as they are very visible and important to households, influencing their overall inflation expectations. Poorer households also face higher effective inflation which could lead to second-round wage effects.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said the Fed’s 25 bps cut last week was a “reasonable risk-management strategy” in light of signs that the labor market could weaken more abruptly than anticipated.

Yet, Schmid acknowledged that inflation remains “too high,” even as the labor market, while cooling, remains “largely in balance.” He argued that moving policy to an “only slightly restrictive” level is the right place for now, offering support for employment while still leaning against inflation.

He declined to signal where he sees policy heading, saying he will stay “data-dependent” in weighing any further moves.

The Euro has been very tenacious throughout the year.

It is currently the top two in major currency performance this year, with only its neighbor, the Swissie, keeping it in check (the difference in performance between the two is very small).

Trends can be expected to continue, particularly when they reverse flows that have been seen in the past 10 years. So, what has been going on with the Euro since the 2010s?

The Euro was in a secular downtrend against the US Dollar, for example, due to lower growth, a disadvantageous trade balance, companies fleeing the overregulated economic zone, generally lower rates (implying basis trade activity), and some not-so-nice events like the Greek debt crisis.

This year, however, the Joint currency bounced back, with a more united Europe against external menaces (e.g., Russia, economic tensions against the US amid their de-globalization moves), and promises to provide more elastic regulations.

This took the Euro up close to 12.37% against the greenback at its prime.

However, some technicals may indicate that the strong uptrend is slowing down.

Let's examine the Euro in detail—EURUSD, EURCAD, and EURCHF—to see if the current slowdown anticipates a pullback or if the move really is exhausting.
OAU-PRS-236-MarketPulse-variant2-Square

EURUSD

EURUSD 8H Chart, September 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The most traded major pair is seeing strong selling momentum in today's session due to the ever-stronger US data.

Jobless claims and Q2 GDP just came in much better than expected which may take out some expected cuts for the FOMC – With rates at 4.25% in the US vs 2% for Europe, the yield differential is back higher and may drag demand in the pair.

The most recent 8H candle breached the 50-period MA and the key pivot zone, but the important part is to see what traders do now: The 8H 200-period MA was sustaining prices throughout every pullback since the 21st of August, taking the pair to new yearly highs.

However, the pair is down about 2,500 pips since reaching its peak ahead of last week's FOMC event (1.19188).

With the 200 MA coming right in play, reactions will be very interesting to watch – A rebound here may lead to a retest of the 1.18 level, while a break of the 1.16 Support should lead to further downside.

Resistance Levels:

• Daily Pivot 1.17 to 1.1740 (50-period MA in confluence)
• Main resistance 1.18 to 1.1830
• 1.19188 yearly highs
• 1.20 psychological level and 2021 highs

Support Levels:

• 1.16840 MA 200 (immediate support)
• 1.1570 to 1.16 Main support
• 1.1470 Pivotal Support

EURCHF

EURCHF 8H Chart, September 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView

EURCHF has a more rangebound tendency with few events that can create trends.

The latest one has been a down-move from March 2025 highs, as the Swissie was dragging more appeal amid a slowing economy and still tense geopolitics (with its safe-haven status getting strong attention – Gold was also very bid at that time).

A (fairly) recent piece looked at the CHF to see if its run could also be exhausting, and now we look at both strongest 2025 currencies to see which one still has the upper hand on the immediate outlook.

Having bounced thrice on its 0.9310 support but contained by the 200-period MA located within the key pivot (around 0.9350), any breakout from these two points should see further continuation (look for a weekly close above/below).

In terms of fundamentals, look at the appetite for Risk-off assets and relative hawkishness from the respective central banks (ECB wins that point).

Levels of interest for EURCHF trading:

Resistance Levels:

• key pivot 0.9350
• 0.94 key resistance
• 0.94250 to 0.9450 Main Resistance

Support Levels:

• 0.9310 to 0.9320 support
• 0.92675 last major lows
• Main 0.9250 to 0.93 Support

EURCAD

EURCAD 8H Chart, September 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView

To spot whether the rally in Euro against all other currencies is really over, I would suggest to look at EURCAD:

While the US Dollar weakened more rapidly in 2025, the trend in the Canadian Dollar is more persistent due to the weakening Canadian data and a still confusing US/Canada trade outlook.

Sending many tricky signs of reversals, dips quickly got met with sharp buying and new yearly highs in the pair got reached just two days ago (1.6350, unseen since 2009).

But, the pair is now evolving within an ascending wedge and bullish momentum is slowing down gradually.

Will this be enough for sellers to take control of the one way trend? Look at the reactions when prices reach the upward trendline or if the pair breaks out of the current 2025 highs.

Levels to place on your EURCAD charts:

Resistance Levels:

• 1.6350 Current yearly highs
• Mid-2009 Resistance (1.6320 to 1.6350)
• 1.63 psychological resistance

Support Levels:

• 1.62 immediate momentum Pivot
• 1.61 Higher timeframe pivot zone (confluence with rising trendline)
• Support for higher trend 1.59
• July Lows around 1.58

The Swiss National Bank kept its key rate at 0.0% after lowering it to this level in June. At the same time, the Bank noted it remains “willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary”.

Switzerland pointed to inflation close to previous forecasts and within the range of price stability, with forecasts of +0.2% in 2025, +0.5% in 2026, and +0.7% in 2027, provided that the key rate remains at the current level of 0.0%.

Economic forecasts remain uncertain due to US tariffs. As a rule, policymakers use this phrase to signal expectations of weak growth and the presence of downside risks. Forecasts for this year range from 1% to 1.5%, and next year, GDP is expected to grow by less than 1% with a likely increase in unemployment. This year’s figures were supported by importers’ desire to purchase Swiss goods before the tariffs were raised. Now we are seeing the opposite trend and expect the negative effect to intensify next year.

The dynamics of changes in foreign exchange reserves show that the SNB has been selling francs and buying foreign currency since the end of 2023. All this time, EURCHF has not fallen below 0.9200. At the same time, since 2021, the pair has been forming a sequence of lower local highs, indicating growing pressure from franc buyers. This resistance line is now near 0.95, compared to 0.9650 at the beginning of the year, 0.9950 in May 2024, and 1.11 at the beginning of 2021.

In our view, lowering the key rate is a more effective step to accelerate the economy and maintain export competitiveness than constant interventions near a certain level. The looming and expected economic slowdown, coupled with the absence of any threat of excessive inflation on the horizon, provides an opportunity to lower interest rates, which the SNB is in no hurry to take advantage of.

Since the start of the day, the franc has lost about 0.3% against the euro and the dollar, but it needs to rise by more than 1% before the bulls in EURCHF and USDCHF start testing the long-term downward resistance line. This move is achievable even without major news, but further gains could signal a meaningful breakthrough.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6563; (P) 0.6595; (R1) 0.6616; More...

AUD/USD's fall from 0.6706 resumed by breaking through 0.6574 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6545) will confirm rejection by 0.6713 fibonacci resistance, and bring deeper fall to 06413 cluster support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6627 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and path the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1704; (P) 1.1762; (R1) 1.1795; More...

EUR/USD's fall from 1.1917 resumed by breaking through 1.1724 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, sustained break of 55 D EMA (1.1667) will argue that 1.1917 is already a medium term top. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.1390 support next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1819 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0176 (2025 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low). 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916 was already met. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.1390 support holds, and firm break of 1.2000 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.1390 will suggest that rise from 1.0176 has already completed and bring deeper fall to 55 W EMA (now at 1.1214).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3405; (P) 1.3467; (R1) 1.3509; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the downside and outlook is unchanged. . Fall from 1.3725, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3787, is in progress to 1.3332 support. Break there will target 1.3140. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3535 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress, and would target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. However, with 1.4248 resistance (2021 high) intact, this rally is more likely a corrective move. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3157) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.