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EUR/USD's fall from 1.1917 resumed by late break of 1.1540 support. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.1390 support, or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, above 1.1576 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1298) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep larger outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.

USD/JPY's rally from 139.87 resumed by breaking through 153.26 resistance last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week fir 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Firm break there will target 158.86 resistance next. On the downside, below 153.24 resistance turned support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 151.52 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

In the long term picture, there is no sign that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. But then, firm break of 161.94 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.

GBP/USD's extended decline and break of (38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142) suggests that it might have completed a double top pattern (1.3787, 1.3725). Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement at 1.2744 next. On the upside break of 1.3247 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 1.3185) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099. Firm break there will confirm bearish reversal. In case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.3051 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.

USD/CHF's extended rebound last week suggests that corrective pattern from 0.7828 is not complete. Instead, it's now extending with a third leg. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.8075 resistance first. Break there will target 100% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7872 at 0.8119. On the downside, below 0.8008 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD rebounded further to 0.6616 last week but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.6616 will resume the rise from 0.6439 to retest 0.6706 high. However, break of 0.6524 will turn bias to the downside for 0.6439 and possibly below, to extend the corrective pattern from 0.6706 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 0.6941 will argue that the third leg has already started back to 0.8006.

USD/CAD initially dived to 1.3886 last week but rebounded strongly from there. Strong support was seen from 55 D EMA (now at 1.3914). The pair is also staying well inside near term rising channel. Overall development suggests that rise from 1.3538 is still in progress. Initial bias stays on the upside for 1.4078 this week. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 1.3725 to 1.4078 from 1.3886 at 1.4104, and then 100% projection at 1.4239. For now, risk will remain on the upside as long as 1.3887 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Based on current momentum, rise from 1.3538 is the second leg, and a third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3725 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3725 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

In the long term picture, 55 M EMA (now at 1.3525) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.90567 (2007 low) should still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction.

Despite dipping to 200.54 last week, GBP/JPY quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral first. Current development suggests that price action from 205.30 is merely a corrective move, and larger rally is still in progress. On the upside, break of 204.22 will suggest that rise from 184.35 is resuming through 205.30 towards 208.09 high. However, break of 200.54 will extend the fall from 205.30 to 197.47 key structural support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 197.47 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.

In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.

EUR/JPY's up trend resumed last week but retreated after hitting 178.80. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations. Downside of pullback should be contained above 174.80 support. On the upside, break of 178.80 will extend the up trend to 61.8% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 172.24 at 180.15 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Firm break of 172.24 support will suggests that it has turned into consolidations again. But still, outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 167.87) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 154.77 support holds.

EUR/GBP's rise from 0.8221 resumed last week and hit as high as 0.8817. But with a temporary top formed, initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further rise is expected as long as 0.8750 resistance turned above holds. Above 0.8817 will target 0.8867 fibonacci level. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implications. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8750 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8654 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Firm break of 0.8654 support will be the first sign that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's extended decline last week dampened the original bullish view, and suggests that corrective pattern from 1.8554 is extending with a thirds. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Firm break of 1.7569 support will solidify this case and target 1.7254 support next. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.7813 minor resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7399) will suggest that it's correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound form 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6501) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.