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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is still consolidating below the key 120k level but a triangle breakout may lead to fresh all-time highs.

The world's largest cryptocurrency has broken above the triangle pattern on the H4 chart which could be the start of the next leg to the upside.

Bitcoin did break below the 50 neutral level on the RSI period 14 yesterday before breaking back above immediately which could be a sign that momentum remains with the bulls.

Looking for potential targets following a triangle breakout, traders typically use a simple method to set a price target:

1. Measure the Base: Find the widest part of the triangle. This is the vertical distance between the highest and lowest points at the beginning of the triangle formation.
2. Project from Breakout:

• • For an upside breakout (price breaks above the top trendline): Take the measured height of the triangle's base and add it to the price level where the breakout occurred.
  • For a downside breakout (price breaks below the bottom trendline): Take the measured height of the triangle's base and subtract it from the price level where the breakout occurred.

This projected price is your potential target. It's important to also look for increased trading volume to confirm the breakout and consider placing a stop-loss order to manage risk in case of a false breakout.

With this in mind, a potential target rests around the 126200 handle.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, July 22, 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Bitcoin ETF Breaks 12-Day Inflow Streak

The only concern at present may come from spot Bitcoin ETFS, which saw 131.35 million in outflows on Monday. This brought a 12-day inflow streak to an end which brought in as much as $6.6 billion.

The biggest outflow came from ARK Invest’s ARKB, which lost $77.46 million in one day. Grayscale’s GBTC followed with $36.75 million in outflows, and Fidelity’s FBTC saw $12.75 million withdrawn, according to SoSoValue.

Bitwise’s BITB and VanEck’s HODL had smaller outflows of $1.91 million and $2.48 million. BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest fund with $86.16 billion in assets, had no changes in inflows or outflows.

Despite these outflows, total net inflows remain strong at $54.62 billion, and all spot Bitcoin ETFs combined hold $151.60 billion in assets, making up 6.52% of Bitcoin’s total market value.

Source: Farside Investors

If outflows do continue then this could hinder a potential rally toward the 126200 area. Another factor to consider could be potential profit taking and rebalancing by institutions following the recent all-time highs.

Client Sentiment Data - Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Looking at OANDA client sentiment data, the majority of traders are long on Bitcoin with 97% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment, thus the fact that 97% of traders are net-long suggests a deeper pullback may be in play in the near-term.

Silver: ⬆️ Buy

• Silver broke resistance level 39.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 40.00

Silver recently broke the resistance level 39.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave i earlier this month, as can be seen from the daily Silver chart below.

The breakout of the resistance level 39.00 should accelerate the active impulse waves 5 and (C).

Given the clear daily uptrend, Silver can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 40.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave iii.

Bitcoin: ⬆️ Buy

• Bitcoin reversed from support level 116065.00
•  Likely to rise to resistance level 122775.00

Bitcoin cryptocurrency recently reversed up from the key support level 116065.00, which also stopped the earlier minor correction 2 at the start of June.

The support level 116065.00 was further strengthened by the support trendline of the daily up channel from June and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from July.

Given the strong daily uptrend, Bitcoin cryptocurrency can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 122775.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1).

Gold surged above $3400 barrier on Tuesday after a brief pause (shallow pullback from $3402 to $3383) and cracked next target at $3420 (triangle’s upper boundary).

Steep ascend extends into second consecutive day, with daily close above $3400 zone (psychological / Fibo 76.4% of $3452/$3246) to generate fresh bullish signal, which will be validated on sustained break above $3420 that would unmask $3452 (June 16 top).

Meanwhile, corrective dips should be anticipated on strongly overbought hourly studies and expected to provide better levels to re-enter bullish market.

Broken barrier at $3400 reverted to solid support which should ideally contain, with extended dips to find ground above today’s low ($3383) to keep larger bulls intact.

Res: 3420; 3437; 3452; 3500.
Sup: 3400; 3383; 3350; 3330.

Markets

Global markets today are captured in guarded (holiday thinned) trading, awaiting more concrete news later this week/next week. US and EMU PMI’s on Thursday will give some insight on current activity and corporates’ intentions as trade negotiations between the US and its (major) trading partners are entering ‘money time’. The ECB will hold a regular policy meeting also on Thursday. However, after reducing the policy rate back to a neutral 2% level in June, the bank now is in a good position to await the outcome of the trade negotiations before giving new guidance. Markets in the meantime shifted to a more cautious risk bias as recent headlines/rumours on the negotiations between the US and its trading partners suggest that the final reciprocal tariff might be higher than the 10% level that EU (and other countries) deemed feasible. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Bessent turned quite constructive on trade talks with China scheduled of next week in Stockholm. After hitting an air pocket yesterday on trade-related uncertainty, US and EMU yields today are changing less than 2 bps across the curve. The ECB today published its Q2 bank lending survey. Credit standards for firm loans remained broadly unchanged. Credit standards tightened slightly for housing loans and more markedly for consumer credit. On the demand side, housing loan demand continued to increase strongly, while demand for firm loans remained weak. The impact of the survey on European interest rate markets was close to non-existent. The Eurostoxx 50 corrects further (-0.70%). US equity indices are taking a breather (S&P little changed near record levels).

On FX markets, the dollar yesterday surprisingly lost ground on trade-related uncertainty. Today, changes in major FX are very limited. DXY holding almost unchanged (97.8). EUR/USD is holding a very narrow range close to 1.17. Bessent took a softer tone on the position of Fed Chair Powell compared to other comments from the White House of late. He indicated that the Fed Chair could stay in place till the end of his term even as Bessent still calls for a review of the Fed’s non-monetary policy activities. This might provide some relief for the dollar. The yen gains modestly as Japanese markets reopen for the first trading session after the LDP led government lost its majority in the Upper House elections this weekend. The topic of fiscal sustainability is here to stay as the minority government will have to make ad hoc agreements with opposition parties to address concerns on the cost of living crisis. LT Japanese bonds and the yen remain vulnerable, but the first market reaction remains guarded. The yen in some kind of sell the rumour, buy the fact bias, rebounds modestly yesterday and also today (USD/JPY 146.8). Sterling initially underperformed today after the ONS released disappointing monthly public sector borrowing data (PSNB £20.7 bn vs £17.5 bn expected). EUR/GBP briefly ticked up to 0.868, but a test of the EUR/GBP 0.87 still proved one bridge too far for now (currently again 0.867).

News & Views

Belgian consumer confidence stabilized at -4 to remain above its long-term average, the July consumer confidence survey of the national bank of Belgium (NBB) showed. “After the marked upswing in confidence observed since May, consumers have now turned somewhat more pessimistic about macroeconomic factors”, the NBB noted. Expectations for the general economic situation worsened and concerns about an increase in unemployment have also risen slightly. But on a personal level, households appear more optimistic about their own financial situation. As was the case last month, there is no change in their savings intentions.

People familiar with the matter said the Bank of Japan see little need to shift their policy stance of gradually hiking interest rates after the ruling coalition lost its majority in the Upper House last Sunday. The risk is for a considerably looser fiscal policy amid PM Ishiba’s LDP and Komeito party caving to opposition demands, potentially lifting inflation – which is above the 2% target for three years already – even further. But for now the BoJ would simply monitor the situation rather than preemptively act on it. The central bank meets next week and the people added that the 0.5% base rate would probably stay there against the backdrop of trade negotiations with the US still ongoing.

Gold prices are making a fresh play for the $3400/oz handle, but will a break prove to be sustainable or not? This question remains front and center as trade tensions rise once more.

The precious metal peaked just above the $3400 handle but failed to hold before a selloff saw the precious metals price drop to around the $3384/oz handle in the European session

Trade Tensions on the Rise

Gold prices have benefitted this week as trade tensions remain front and center especially between the US and EU. Trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU have grown as the EU plans new measures to counter tariffs threatened by President Trump.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, Trump has raised the proposed baseline tariff rate to 15-20%, up from the previously mentioned 10%. This change disrupted the EU’s plans, which were based on a 10% tariff rate.

In response, Germany, along with France and other European countries, has taken a tougher stance against the U.S. A German official reportedly said, “If they want war, they will get war.” If no trade deal is reached before the August deadline, tensions could worsen and disrupt global trade.

If these tensions do not come to a positive conclusion that could be the catalyst Gold prices need for acceptance above the $3400/oz mark.

US Dollar Struggles as DXY Breaks Trendline

Another factor working in favor of higher Gold prices comes courtesy of the US Dollar and the US Dollar Index (DXY).

As BoE President Bailey put it, Dollar shorts is the most crowded trade at present and that is showing.

Looking at the DXY on the H4 chart below, there is strong support being provided by the 100-day MA which rests at 97.67. A break of this support level could lead to further downside with support at 97.26 and 96.90 respectively.

If the DXY is to stage a recovery, a break above the 200-day MA will be needed. The RSI period 14 did bounce off the 50 neutral level which could be seen as a positive sign that could lead to a bounce for the US Dollar index.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, July 22, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Outlook Moving Forward

Data remains sparse from the US this week with trade deals and earnings likely to drive sentiment.

Later in the week we have some US housing data which could impact the US Dollar as well as S&P PMI data which would shed further light on the US economy

However, I still see trade deals being the key to the US Dollar, market sentiment and Gold prices for the rest of the week.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, Gold has broken above the 3400/oz mark.

A daily candle close above this level is needed and this would strengthen the probability of further upside.

Gold has been printing higher highs since bottoming out on June 30. The precous metal is also trading in a triangle pattern and is approaching the upper band of the pattern.

A break and daily candle close close above this level could lead to a move of around $386 which could push Gold close to the 3800/oz handle.

A rejection of the upper band of the triangle pattern could lead to a retest of immediate support of the 3400 handle before the 3375 and 3350 handles come into focus.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, July 22, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD

Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are indecisive on Gold with 51% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment but the current data shows the indecision and uncertainty by market participants when it comes to the direction for gold prices moving forward.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1635; (P) 1.1676; (R1) 1.1737; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.1720 minor resistance will suggest that corrective pullback from 1.1829 has already completed at 1.1555. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 1.1829. On the downside, below 1.1555 will extend the correction towards 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1829 at 1.1198.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3426; (P) 1.3468; (R1) 1.3535; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 1.3561 support turned resistance will argue that correction from 1.3787 has already completed after hitting 1.3369 support. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 1.3787. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3363/9 will bring deeper correction to 1.3138 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3017) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7957; (P) 0.7990; (R1) 0.8014; More….

No change in USD/CHF's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 0.7946 support will argue that correction from 0.7871 has completed at 0.8063 after rejection by 0.8054 support turned resistance. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 0.7871. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8054/63 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8139).

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8475 resistance holds.