Euro Rises Mildly as Investor Confidence Improved, Overall Markets Quiet
Markets continue to trade in rather subdued manner today, awaiting the key events ahead, including three central bank meetings, trade deal and UK elections. Meanwhile, Euro is trading generally higher, slightly, as supported by improvement in investor confidence. Sterling is also firm but fails to extend earlier gains. On...
Sterling Rises as Conservative Extends Lead ahead of Elections
Sterling strengthen broadly in relatively quiet markets today. Ahead of Thursday's election, Conservative's lead over Labour jumped back to 14pts according to a latest poll. Traders continue to be optimistic on a Conservative majority to finally rectify the EU withdrawal agreement for Brexit. While US stocks jumped sharply on...
Fed to Leave Policy Rate Unchanged in December, and Likely for 2020
We expect the FOMC will leave the Fed funds rate unchanged at 1.5-1.75% in December. The employment report released last week confirmed a resilient job market. Other indicators showed little deviation from the trend observed in October. Indeed, unless global and domestic conditions deteriorate materially, it is likely that...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Commodity Currencies Gained Support while Safe-Haven Currencies Lost Ground
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 3. NET LENGTH in USD Index slipped -261 contracts to 23 877. Speculative long positions added +1 949 contracts and short positions gained +2 210 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures rose...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Higher Crude Oil Price Could Continue as OPEC+ Agreed to Cut Deeper
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 3, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -42 901 contracts to 428 035 for the week. Speculative long positions fell -22 617 contracts while shorts gained +20 284 contracts. On December 5, OPEC+ agreed to...
Trade War, Election, Fed and ECB in a Week of Guaranteed Volatility
It was a rough ride in the financial markets last week. Stocks were initially pressured in concerns over US-China trade negotiations. US President Donald Trump threw the idea that waiting until after 2020 election before closing the phase one deal. Sentiments were additionally weighed down by a string of...
Dollar Jumps on Strong Job Growth, Loonie Pressured after Employment Data
Dollar rebounds broadly in early US session after positive surprise in job data. However, upside is relatively limited at the time of writing, capped by disappointing wage growth. For now the greenback remains the weakest one for the week. Canadian Dollar's fortune reversed after much worse than expected employment...
Dollar Staying Pressured, Looking Non-Farm Payrolls for Savior
Dollar remains the weakest one for the week as markets head towards weekly close. The greenback was weighed down by a string of weaker than expected economic data. Additionally, as December 15 natural deadline looms, it's still uncertain whether US and China could complete the phase one trade deal...
OPEC+ Agrees to Deepen Output Cut by 500K bpd. Compliance Remains the Key
OPEC+ agreed to cut oil output further, by +500K bpd, effective March 2020. A formal agreement will be released on Friday. The 11 OPEc members would share 350K bpd of the cut while the 10 non-OPEC producers would share the remaining 150K bpd.
While awaiting more details about the production...
Canadian Dollar Jumps Again on BoC Lane’s Comments, Sterling Also Firm
Canadian Dollar surges broadly again today as a top BoC official's comment further dismiss the chance of rate cut. Sterling is following as the second strongest on election and Brexit optimism. On the other hand Australia Dollar is the weakest on as weighed down by poor retail sales data,...
Dollar Sinks on Poor Data and Trade Uncertainty
Dollar was sold off deeply this week on a string of weaker than expected economic data, as well as uncertainty over US-China trade deal. ISM indices and ADP private jobs all disappointed and the greenback's hope now cling on Friday's non-farm payrolls. There are conflicting reports regarding US-China trade...
BOC Unexpectedly Turned More Upbeat in December
BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in December. The accompanying statement turned more hawkish than October. Despite ongoing trade war uncertainty, policymakers remained upbeat about the domestic economic growth. They also acknowledged that the global economy has stabilised. It now appears that the central bank would prefer...
US Crude Oil Inventory Dropped by Almost 5M barrel, Sending Price Up by 4%
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks declined -4.93 mmb to 1263.83 mmb in the week ended November 29 . Crude oil inventory declined -4.86 mmb (consensus: -1.73 mmb). Inventory declined in 4 out of 5...
Dollar Dives after ADP Job Miss, Sterling Shines
Dollar is under much selling pressure after another data miss in ADP employment. Markets are starting to worry that slowdown in the USA economy is not over. Road ahead could be even more bumpy with persistent trade risks. Bloomberg reported that US and China are still close to the...
Markets in Risk Aversion on US-China Tensions, Yen Jumps Broadly
Markets turn into deep risk averse mode on concerns over US-China relations. . It's not getting more unlikely that the phase one trade deal would be agreed in time to avert tariff escalation on December 15. Political tensions also intensified after House passed the the Uighur Act, just a...
Stocks and Dollar Plummet as Trump Say China Trade Deal May Drag On
US stocks futures and Dollar tumble broadly today after US President Trump indicated that he has no deadline for China trade deal, and could even wait until after 2020 election to make it. If the phase one deal is dragged on, through December 15 "natural deadline", new round of...
BOC to Stand on the Sideline in December, while Noting Possible Rate Cut
Despite the dovish surprise in October, we expect BOC to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% this week. Economic data released during the inter-meeting period stayed firm, allowing the central bank to take more time to monitor the situation. However, it will continue to warn that US-China trade...
RBA Left Cash Rate Unchanged but Hinted To Ease Further
As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.75% in December. The central bank was cautiously optimistic about domestic economic development. While seeing turning points on the economic in general and the housing market in particular, the members remained concerned about consumption and the job market. They...
Dollar Tumbles on Poor Data and Tariff Threats, Risking More Downside
The US markets were sold off deeply overnight after after poor ISM manufacturing data and renewed tariff threats. Dollar also suffered deep selling pressure, together with Canadian. Though, there was no clear fund flows into the Japanese Yen, as risk aversion was countered by surge in major treasury yields....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Selling Pressure in GBP Increased as Elections Approach
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 26. NET LENGTH in USD Index slipped -487 contracts to 24 138. Speculative long positions fell -2 276 contracts and short positions dropped -1 789 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures fell...