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Brexit and China Dominates Headlines, Yen Stays Strong

Brexit and China are the two main themes in the markets today. For now Yen is the strongest one so far followed by Swiss Franc. Risk aversion is triggered by terrible trade data from China which intensified worries over slow down. Both imports and expects contracted in the fastest...

Yen Broadly Higher on Risk Aversion after Ugly Chinese Trade Data

Yen strengthens broadly today as Asian stocks are weighed down by rather terrible Chinese trade balance data. Trade war with the US is hurting both exports and imports. But judging from the data alone, it's unsure who suffered more. Nevertheless, the situation could change in the months ahead as...

Brexit to Take the Spotlight from Fed, Trade War and US Government Shutdown

Risk sentiments continued to recover last week as Fed officials indicated they would be patient before making the next rate move. Positive developments of US-China trade talks also helped. One notable development was the rebound in US treasury yields as 10-year yield reclaimed 2.7 while 30-year yield is back...

Sterling Jumps on Brexit Delay Talks, Dollar Steady after CPI

Sterling surges broadly today on rumor that there will be delay in the Brexit date. Even though the government came out quickly denying intention for Article 50 extension, the Pound stays firm. As next Tuesday's Brexit meaningful vote looms, it's just getting less and less likely for the Brexit...

Dollar Stays Soft as Fed Powell and Clarida Called for Patience, But No Extended Selling

Dollar continues to trade as the weakest one for today and the week. The chorus of Fed's "patience" rhetoric continued overnight with the top two men in Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Richard Clarida. But the marginal impact in the markets seem to be diminishing. Stocks were just...

Forex Markets Turn Mixed as Stocks Rebound Fade, More Fed Speaks Ahead

The forex markets is rather mixed today, partly thanks to fading momentum in global stock rebound. Australian Dollar is so far the strongest one for today. Dollar follows as second strongest, paring some of yesterday's losses. Yen is the third strongest. But no apparent momentum is seen in all...

FOMC Minutes Reveal Dovish Notes Which Were Hidden in December

To us, the message conveyed in the FOMC minutes for the December meeting was somehow different from those at the post-meeting press conference. From the post-meeting statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, we judged that the Fed turned a bit more cautious over the economic and financial market outlooks....

Dollar Weakened Broadly as Fed Seeks Patience, Government Shutdown Continues

Dollar is turning mixed in Asian session today, but it remains the weakest one for the week. The greenback was knocked down by a wave of cautious comments from Fed officials, as well as the FOMC minutes. In short, Fed could be "patient" before making another rate move. And...

BOC Pushed Back Timing for Next Rate Hike, Trimmed GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts for 2019

As we expected, BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in yesterday. Policymakers admitted that the decline in oil price has “material” impact on the economy. Yet, they viewed the impact as transitory. Reflecting the view on economy projections, the central bank downgraded the GDP growth forecast for...

US Crude Oil Inventory Fell Less Than Expected, While Fuel Stocks Increased Markedly

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained +13.28 mmb to 1255.44 mmb in the week ended January 4. Crude oil inventory fell -1.68 mmb to 439.74 mmb (consensus: -2.8 mmb). Inventories decreased in 3 out of...

Global Markets Surge as US-China Trade Talks Ended Positively

Global stock markets are boosted by optimism over US-China trade negotiation. And commodity currencies ride on positive sentiment to strengthen broadly today. On the other hand, Yen is clearly under broad based pressure as risk aversion receded. It's followed by Dollar and then Swiss Franc. Euro shows little reaction...

Optimism on US-China Trade Talks Lift Sentiments, Canadian Dollar Strong ahead of BoC

Commodity currencies are trading broadly higher today as risk appetite is lifted by optimism over US-China trade negotiations in Beijing. Canadian Dollar is additionally supported by rally in oil price, with WTI breaking 50 handle. On the other hand, Yen is trading as the weakest one, followed by Swiss...

Dollar Trying to Recover Further as 10-Year Yield Back Above 2.7

Canadian and US Dollar are the strongest ones in a rather quiet day. WTI crude oil stays firm above 49 but there is no buying to push it through 50 handle yet. But that's enough to keep the Loonie buoyed ahead of BoC rate decision tomorrow. Dollar is supported...

FX 2019 – Persistent Brexit Uncertainty Suggests GBP to Stay Volatile

Brexit uncertainty continues to be the key determinant of sterling’s movement in the coming quarters. Market consensus signals that GBPUSD would rally as much as 4% in 6 months and about 6% in 2019. The forecasts are based on the assumption of a smooth Brexit. We are, however, skeptical...

Dollar Higher after Defending Support, Canadian Even Stronger

Dollar trades generally higher in Asian session today, rebound from near term support levels against Euro and Swiss Franc. The greenback is also seen losing some downside momentum against Sterling and Australian Dollar. Recovery in US treasury yields help and there is also some optimism on the result of...

Euro Shrugs Off Deteriorating Investor Confidence, Rises Together With Swiss Franc

Swiss Franc and Euro are the strongest major currencies in a rather quiet day today. Mild recovery in German bund yield is giving the common currency a little lift. But the main drive in the forex market is Dollar's weakness. The greenback is trading as the worst performing one....

BOC Preview – No Change in Rates, Dovish Stance Accompanied by Modest Forecast Downgrades

We expect BOC to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at the upcoming meeting this week. Besides releasing the statement and Monetary Policy Report, the central bank would also update the economic forecasts and host a press conference. The focus of the meeting would be possible downward revisions...

Dollar Broadly Lower on Cautious Fed Powell, US Government Shutdown Continues

Riding on the strong rally in the US on Friday, Asian opened the week generally higher. While major Asian indices maintain gains, there is no follow through buying seen. There seems to be enough risks to keep investors' hands tied, including the result of the vice ministerial level US-China...

FX 2019 – JPY to Shine In Risk-Off Environment

We are not convinced that the "flash crash" of USDJPY last Thursday was driven by Apple.Inc's lowering of guidance, especially on China. The rally in Japanese yen during the time did not just appear in USDJPY, but also other JPY-crosses, such as AUD and TRY. There are factors underlying...

Sentiments Saved as Fed Powell Turned Cautious, China Stepped Up Supporting Measures

There were big roller coaster rides in the financial markets last week. Apple's sales outlook downgrade heightened the concerns over serious slowdown in the Chinese economy. There was the "Currency Flash Crash" which sent through all key technical resistance levels while Australian Dollar tumbled to multi-year low. The partial...