ECB Knot: Don’t assume that it’s a one-shot 50; it’s more than that

    ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot told CNBC today, “Our president has already announced that most of the ground that we have to cover we will cover at a constant pace of multiple 50 basis-point hikes”

    “So we will continue that at a steady pace. Based on the information that we have available today, that predicates another 50-basis-point rate hike at our next meeting, and possibly at the one after that, and possibly thereafter, but everything will also be determined by the review of data. So don’t assume that it’s a one-shot 50; it’s more than that,” he added.

    Referring to recent market speculations that ECB will slow down rate hikes in March, Knot said, “The sort of market developments that I’ve seen over the last two weeks or so, are not entirely welcome… I don’t think that they are compatible, actually, with a timely return of inflation towards 2%.”

    “Core inflation shows no signs of abating,” Knot said. “I would first need to see different dynamics in core inflation before I could start thinking about a more equal balance of risk.”

    Australia employment down -14.6k in Dec, unemployment rate unchanged at 3.5%

      Australia employment declined -14.6k in December, much worse than expectation of 21.2k growth. Full-time jobs rose 17.6k while part-time jobs fell -32.2k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5%. Participation rate dropped -0.2% to 66.6%. Monthly hours worked dropped -0.5%.

      Lauren Ford, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said: “The falls in employment and hours worked in December followed strong growth through 2022, with an annual employment growth rate of 3.4 per cent and hours worked increasing by 3.2 per cent.

      “The strong employment growth through 2022, along with high participation and low unemployment, continues to reflect a tight labour market.

      “In December, we saw the number of people working reduced hours due to illness increasing by 86,000 to 606,000, which is over 50 per cent higher than we would usually see at this time of the year.”

      Full release here.

      Japan exports up 11.5% yoy in Dec, imports up 20.6% yoy

        In December, Japan exports rose 11.5% yoy to JPY 8787B, marking the slowest growth rate in 2022. Exports to China fell -6.2% yoy in value and down -24% yoy in volume. Imports rose 20.6% yoy to JPY 10236B, led by oil, coal and liquefied natural gas.

        Trade deficit came to JPY -1.45T, extending the run of deficits to 17 months. For the whole of 2022, trade balance came in at JPY -19.97T deficit, the second straight annual shortfall, and the largest since 1979.

        In seasonally adjusted term, exports dropped -3.5% mom to JPY 8352B. Imports dropped -3.4% mom to JPY 10076B. Trade deficit narrowed slightly to JPY -1.72T, larger than expectation of JPY -1.63T.

        Fed Logan backs slowing down in complex environment

          Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said it’s a “good idea to slow down” in “today’s complex economic and financial environment”.

          “That’s why I supported the decision last month to reduce the pace of rate increases. And the same considerations suggest slowing the pace further at the upcoming meeting,” she added.

          “A slower pace is just a way to ensure we make the best possible decisions,” she said. “We can and, if necessary, should adjust our overall policy strategy to keep financial conditions restrictive even as the pace slows.”

          She added that Fed should not “lock in” on a terminal rate. “My own view is that we will likely need to continue gradually raising the fed funds rate until we see convincing evidence that inflation is on track to return to our 2 percent target in a sustainable and timely way,” she said.

          “The most important risk I see is that if we tighten too little, the economy will remain overheated, and we will fail to keep inflation in check,” Logan said.

          Fed Harker: Hikes of 25 appropriate going forward

            Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said yesterday, “I expect that we will raise rates a few more times this year, though, to my mind, the days of us raising them 75 basis points at a time have surely passed.” “Hikes of 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward,” he said. And, “let’s get above 5% and sit there for a while”.

            While risks to inflation remain on the upside, he noted, “we are starting to see inflation come down across a spectrum of goods.” He expects core inflation to decline to 3.5% this year, and 2.5% next, then get back to target in 2025. He also said the economy should grow 1% this year, without falling into recession.

             

            Fed Mester: We’re not at 5% yet, we need to keep going

              Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, said in an AP interview, “We’re beginning to see the kind of actions that we need to see… Good signs that things are moving in the right direction … That’s important input into how we’re thinking about where policy needs to go.”

              “We’re starting to see our policy actions do what they’re intended to do,” she said. “But I do believe we have to continue raising … and then hold for a while so that we get back to price stability in a timely way.”

              “We’re not at 5% yet, we’re not above 5%, which I think is going to be needed given where my projections are for the economy,” she said. “I just think we need to keep going, and we’ll discuss at the meeting how much to do.”

              Fed Bullard: Rates almost restrictive, but not quite there yet

                St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an online WSJ interview, “we’re almost into a zone that we could call restrictive – we’re not quite there yet.”

                Fed will wants to make sure that inflation will fall back to 2% target. “We don’t want to waiver on that,” he said.

                “Policy has to stay on the tighter side during 2023” as the disinflationary process unfolds, he added.

                He still sees rates at 5.25-5.50% range at the end of the year.

                US PPI at -0.5% mom, 6.2% yoy in Dec

                  US PPI for final demand declined -0.5% mom in December, below expectation of -0.1% mom. For the 12-month period, PPI slowed form 7.3% yoy to 6.2% yoy, below expectation of 6.8% yoy. For the 12-month period, PPI slowed form 7.3% yoy to 6.2% yoy, below expectation of 6.8% yoy.

                  For the month, Goods prices fell -1.6% mom while services rose 0.1% mom. PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.1% mom.

                  Full release here.

                  US retail sales down -1.1% mom in Dec, ex-auto sales down -1.1% mom

                    US retail sales declined -1.1% mom to USD 677.1B in December, worse than expectation of -0.8% mom. Ex-auto sales dropped -1.1% mom to USD 552.7B, versus expectation of -0.5% mom. Ex-gasoline sales fell -0.8% mom to USD 617.6B. Ex-auto and gasoline sales contracted -0.7% mom to USD 493.1B.

                    Total sales for the 12 months of 2022 were up 9.2% from 2021. For the October through December period, sales were up 6.7% from the same period a years ago.

                    Full release here.

                    Eurozone CPI finalized at 9.2% yoy in Dec, core CPI at 5.2% yoy

                      Eurozone CPI was finalized at 9.2% yoy in December, down from November’s 10.1% yoy. CPI core (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 5.2% yoy, up from prior month’s 5.0% yoy. The highest contribution came from food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.88%), followed by energy (+2.79%), services (+1.83%) and non-energy industrial goods (+1.70%).

                      EU CPI was finalized at 10.4% yoy, down from prior month’s 11.1% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Spain (5.5%), Luxembourg (6.2%) and France (6.7%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (25.0%), Latvia (20.7%) and Lithuania (20.0%). Compared with November, annual inflation fell in twenty-two Member States, remained stable in two and rose in three.

                      Full release here.

                      ECB Villeroy: Lagarde’s 50bps guidance still valid

                        ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said “we will have good news on headline inflation because energy prices are going down,”

                        But on interest rates, he said President Christine Lagarde’s earlier 50bps guidance is “still valid”. He added that it’s too early to speculate on the size of March rate hike.

                        Also, Villeroy emphasized, “we must stay the course in battle against inflation”, adding, he “cannot say where the terminal rate will be but should be there by the summer.”

                        BoJ Kuroda: We don’t need to further expand the band around yield target

                          At the post meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, “We don’t need to further expand the band around our yield target…. It’s been not long since we decided on our measures in December. It will likely take some more time for the measures to start having an effect in fixing market function. With our flexible market operations, however, we expect market function to improve ahead… YCC is, therefore, likely to be sustainable.”

                          “Uncertainty regarding Japan’s economy is very high. It’s necessary to support the economy with our stimulus policy, to ensure companies can raise wages. By maintaining ultra-easy policy, we will strive to achieve our price target stably and sustainably accompanied by wage hikes,” he noted.

                          “Unlike in the past, we expect wages to rise quite a bit, when listening to comments from the business and labour union executives,” Kuroda said. “The pace of wage hikes is accelerating. But this is something we haven’t seen in the past… So we’re not 100% sure (whether) wages will indeed rise.”

                          UK CPI slowed to 10.5% yoy in Dec, core CPI unchanged at 6.3% yoy

                            UK CPI rose 0.4% mom in December, matched expectations. In the 12 months, CPI slowed from 10.7% yoy to 10.5% yoy slightly below expectation of 10.6% yoy. CPI core was unchanged at 6.3% yoy, below expectation of 6.6% yoy. RPI rose 0.6% mom, 13.4% yoy, below expectation of 1.0% mom, 13.9% yoy.

                            ONS said: “The largest downward contribution to the change in both the CPIH and CPI annual inflation rates between November and December 2022 came from transport (particularly motor fuels), clothing and footwear, and recreation and culture, with rising prices in restaurants and hotels, and food and non-alcoholic beverages making the largest partially offsetting upward contributions.”

                            Full release here.

                            BoJ keeps yield cap unchanged, downgrades growth forecast

                              BoJ kept the yield curve control unchanged today, disappointing some who bet for a tweak. Short term policy interest rate is held at -0.10%. The central will continue to purchase JGBs, without setting an upper limit, to keep 10-year yield at around 0%. The range 10-year JGB yield allowed to fluctuate is also kept at around plus and minus 0.50%. The decision was made by unanimous vote.

                              In the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices:

                              • Forecasts of real GDP growth were downgraded across horizon, with fiscal 2022 down from 2.0% to 1.9%, fiscal 2023 down from 1.9% to 1.7%, fiscal 2024 down from 1.5% to 1.1%.
                              • Forecast of CPI core (all item less fresh food) for fiscal 2022 was raised from 2.9% to 3.0%, fiscal 2023 unchanged at 1.6%, and fiscal 2024 raised from 1.6% to 1.8%.
                              • Forecast of CPI core-core (all item less fresh food and energy) for fiscal 2022 was raised from 1.8% to 2.1%, fiscal 2023 raised from 1.6% to 1.8%, and fiscal 2024 unchanged at 1.6%.

                              Full statement here.

                              Full Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices.

                              Fed Barkin: You just can’t declare victory too soon

                                Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told Fox Business yesterday that recent inflation reports have been encourage. But the median CPI is “still too high” and, “you just can’t declare victory too soon.”

                                “I would want to see inflation compellingly back to our target” before easing up on rate hikes, he said. Meanwhile the terminal rate will be dependent on the “path of inflation”.

                                Euro tumbles on report that ECB considering smaller hike in Mar

                                  Euro tumbles broadly after Bloomberg reported, quoting unnamed source, that ECB is pondering slower rate hike after 50bps in February. It noted that “the prospect of a smaller 25-point increase at the following meeting in March is gaining support”.

                                  EUR/CHF’s break of 0.9953 resistance turned support now raising the chance of at least a deeper correction. For now, 38.2% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9832. Reaction from there would reveal whether EUR/CHF could defend its near term bullishness.

                                  Meanwhile, EUR/GBP is heading back to 0.8768 support. Reaction from there will also reveal whether rebound from 0.8545 has completed at 0.8896 already.

                                  Canada CPI slowed to 6.3% yoy, core down to 5.3% yoy

                                    Canada CPI slowed from 6.8% yoy to 6.3% yoy in December, matched expectations. Excluding food and energy, CPI Core slowed from 5.4% yoy to 5.3% yoy.

                                    CPI median dropped from 5.1% yoy to 5.0% yoy, above expectation of 4.9% yoy. CPI trimmed dropped from 5.4% yoy to 5.3% yoy, above expectation of 5.2% yoy. CPI common dropped from 6.8% yoy to 6.6% yoy, matched expectations.

                                    On a monthly basis, CPI dropped -0.6% mom, largest monthly decline since April 2020. The fall was mostly driven by gasoline prices, which also posted their largest monthly decline since April 2020.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Germany ZEW jumped to 16.9, positive again after a year

                                      Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped sharply from -23.3 to 16.9 in January, well above expectation of -15.5. That’s also the first positive reading in a year since February 2022. Current Situation improved from -61.4 to -58.6, below expectation of -57.0.

                                      Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment surged from-23.6 to 16.7, well above expectation of -14.3. Current Situation rose 2.6 pts to -54.8.

                                      ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said: “The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment signals a positive outlook again in January. For the first time since February 2022, the month in which the war in Ukraine began, the indicator points to a noticeable improvement in the economic situation over the next six months.

                                      “The more favourable situation on the energy markets and the German government’s energy price caps have contributed to this in particular. In addition, export conditions for the German economy are improving due to China’s lifting of Covid-restrictions.

                                      “Accordingly, the earnings expectations of the export-oriented and energy-intensive sectors have gone up significantly. The prospect that the inflation rate will continue to fall has brightened expectations for the consumer-related sectors.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      ECB Centeno: The economy surprises quarter after quarter

                                        ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno said, at a panel at the World Economic Forum, the a recession is not a foregone conclusion.

                                        The Eurozone economy “has been surprising us quarter after quarter,” he said. “The fourth quarter in Europe will be most likely still positive. Maybe we’ll be surprised also in the first half of the year.”

                                        Meanwhile, Centeno pledged that ECB will continue to fight inflation.

                                        UK payrolled employment rose 28k in Dec, unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% in Nov

                                          In December, UK payrolled employment rose 28k or 0.1% mom to 29.9m. That’s a rise of 2.3% yoy or 676k over the 12-month period. ONS also noted that the number employees were rising in line with pre-pandemic trends. Median monthly pay rose 7.7% yoy to GBP 2194. Claimant count rose 19.7k.

                                          In the three months November, unemployment rate was at 3.7%, 0.2% points higher than the previous three-month period, but 0.3% below pre-pandemic levels. Employment rate was unchanged at 75.6%. Economic inactivity rate was down -0.1% to 21.5%. Both average earnings including bonus and excluding bonus rose 6.4% 3moy.

                                          Full release here.