BoE Ramsden: The central question is how forceful we need to be

    BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said in a speech that before the November MPC meeting, policymakers will be seeking answers to “a range of questions” to assess how quickly inflation will return to target.

    For him, the questions include: “is there any evidence that the tight labour market is easing; what is the revised outlook for demand in view of the Government’s fiscal announcements; are domestically generated inflation pressures consistent with returning inflation to the 2 per cent target; and what do financial market developments tell us.”

    Meanwhile, the “central question” for all MPC members is “how forceful do we need to be, to ensure inflation does return sustainably to the 2% target”.

    Full speech here.

    ECB survey shows inflation expectations might have peaked

      According to ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) in August, inflation expectations were largely unchanged comparing with July. Nevertheless, mean inflation expectations for the 12 month ahead dropped slightly, and could have peaked. Growth expectations also improved.

      On inflation:

      • Mean expectations for 12 months ahead dropped from 7.1% to 6.9 (compares to 6.6% in June).
      • Median expectations for 12 months ahead was unchanged at 5.0%.
      • Mean expectations for 3 years ahead was unchanged at 4.7%.
      • Median expectations for 3 years ahead was unchanged at 3.0%.

      On growth:

      • Mean growth expectations for next 12 months improved from -1.9% to -1.7%.
      • Median growth expectations for next 12 months improved from -0.1% to 0.0%.

      Full release here.

      US and Canada employment awaited, USD/CAD ready for breakout

        Focus turns to employment data from US and Canada today. US non-farm payroll report is expected to show 265k growth in September. Unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings is expected to rise 0.3% mom in September.

        Looking at related data, ISM manufacturing employment dropped from 54.2 to 48.7, back into contraction region. But ISM services employment rose from 50.2 to 53.0. ADP private employment grew a solid 208k, up from prior month’s 185k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped notably from 246k to 207.

        Overall, the headline print and unemployment rate are unlikely to deviate much from expectations. The surprise factor is probably in wage growth.

        Meanwhile, from Canada, employment is expected to rebound and grow 22.5k in September, with unemployment rate unchanged at 5.4%.

        USD/CAD’s pull back from 1.3832 might have completed at 1.3501, after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2952 to 1.3832. An upside breakout looks ready after the above mentioned event risks are cleared. Nevertheless, even in case of another fall to extend the corrective pattern, downside should be contained by 1.3501.

        Fed Waller and Mester not seeing case for slower rate hike

          Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech yesterday, “Inflation is far from the FOMC’s goal and not likely to fall quickly. This is not the inflation outcome I am looking for to support a slower pace of rate hikes or a lower terminal policy rate”

          Separately, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed and said, “We have to bring interest rates up to a level that will get inflation on that 2% path, and I have not seen the compelling evidence that I need to see that would suggest that we could start reducing the pace at which we’re going,”

          Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, “We have to look at the momentum in sort of that central component of inflation, and that’s really the part that I believe has most of my colleagues and myself nervous about.” Be he declined to comment on whether Fed would continue with 75bps hike and noted, we “will have a discussion about that.”

          BoC Macklem: Simply put, there is more to be done

            BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech yesterday, “We know we are still a long way from the 2% (inflation) target. We know it will take some time to get there. We also know there could be setbacks along the way, and we can’t afford to let high inflation become entrenched.”

            “Simply put, there is more to be done. We will need additional information before we consider moving to a more finely balanced decision-by-decision approach,” he noted.

            “We can’t control global developments. But we can use monetary policy to influence the balance between demand and supply in the Canadian economy and therefore ease domestic inflationary pressures over time,” Macklem also said.

            Full speech here.

            Fed Kashkari: We’re quite a ways away from a pause

              Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, “Until I see some evidence that underlying inflation has solidly peaked and is hopefully headed back down, I’m not ready to declare a pause. I think we’re quite a ways away from a pause.”

              “I fully expect that there are going to be some losses and there are going to be some failures around the global economy as we transition to a higher-interest rate environment, and that’s the nature of capitalism,” Kashkari said.

              “We need to keep our eyes open for risks that could be destabilizing for the American economy as a whole. But to me, the bar to actually shifting our stance on policy is very high,” he said. “It should not be up to the Federal Reserve or the American taxpayer to bail people out.”

               

              US initial jobless claims rose to 219k, above expectation

                US initial jobless claims rose 29k to 219k in the week ending October 1, above expectation of 205k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 250 to 206.5k.

                Continuing claims rose 15k to 1361k in the week ending September 24. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped 10k to 1371k.

                Full release here.

                ECB accounts: Some members preferred 50bps hike in Sep

                  The accounts of ECB’s September 7-8 monetary policy meeting showed that a “very large number” of committee members expressed a preference for a 75bps hike, which was “a proportionate response” to upward revisions to inflation outlook and an important signal of the determination to bring inflation back to target in a “timely manner”.

                  But “some members” preferred a 50bps hike as that would be “large enough to signal determination in proceeding with the interest rate normalization”. With the “looming risk of a recession”, a 50bps hike as part of a “sustained path towards more neutral rate levels” might prove “sufficient” to return inflation to target. “What needed to be addressed was the risk of the sharp rise in inflation, exacerbated by the war, destabilizing inflation expectations,” the account noted.

                  But add the end, all members joined a consensus for the 75bps hike, while maintain that policy should “not follow a pre-set path”, and be set on a “meeting-by-meeting basis.

                  Eurozone retail sales volume dropped -0.3% mom in Aug, EU down -0.2% mom

                    Eurozone retail sales volume dropped -0.3% mom in August, matched expectations. Retail trade volume decreased by -0.8% for food, drinks and tobacco, while it increased by 0.2% for non-food products and by 3.2% for automotive fuels.

                    EU retail sales volume dropped -0.2% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in the Netherlands (-2.2%), Germany (-1.3%) and Malta (-1.1%). The highest increases were observed in Slovenia (+7.0%), Luxembourg (+3.8%) and Ireland (+3.5%).

                    Full release here.

                    UK PMI construction rose to 52.3, but optimism sank

                      UK PMI construction rose from 49.2 to 52.3 in September, above expectation of 48.1. S&P Global said total industry activity rose for the first time three months. Output growth was linked to work on delayed projects. Business optimism was the lowest since July 2020 as new orders stalled.

                      Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Forward-looking survey indicators took another turn for the worse in September, with new business volumes stalling and output growth expectations for the year ahead now the lowest since July 2020. This reflected deepening concerns across the construction sector that rising interest rates, the energy crisis and UK recession risks are all set to dampen client demand in the coming months.”

                      Full release here.

                      NZ Robertson not concerned with NZD outlook, NZD/USD extending recovery

                        New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson said today that it’s going to be a “challenging year” with “global slowdown”. New Zealand would see “less demand and some slowdown”. But, “that doesn’t mean, to me, a recession. There is balance to struck here.”

                        “Monetary and fiscal policies need to be coordinated, to work together,” he said. “As interest rates rise they’ll restrict demand.” He also said that he’s “not concerned on the long-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar.”

                        NZD/USD is extending the recovery from 0.5563, but after all, that’s seen as a corrective move in a down trend. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.6467 to 0.5563 at 0.5908. Larger down trend is still expected to resume at a later stage to 2020 low at 0.5467.

                        Fed Bostic: Lowering rates in 2023? Not so fast

                          Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic said yesterday, “I would like to reach a point where policy is moderately restrictive –between 4 and 4 1/2 percent by the end of this year — and then hold at that level and see how the economy and prices react,”

                          There is “considerable speculation already that the Fed could begin lowering rates in 2023 if economic activity slows and the rate of inflation starts to fall,” Bostic said. “I would say: not so fast.”

                          “We should not let the emergence of (economic) weakness deter our push to lower inflation,” he added. “We must remain vigilant because this inflation battle is likely still in early days.”

                          US PMI services dropped slightly to 56.7

                            US ISM Services PMI dropped slightly from 56.9 to 56.7 in September, above expectation of 56.0. Looking at some details, business activity/production dropped from 60.9 to 59.1. New orders dropped from 61.8 to 60.6. Employment rose from 50.2 to 53.0. Prices dropped from 71.5 to 68.7.

                            ISM said: “The services sector had a slight pullback in growth for the month of September due to decreases in business activity and new orders. Employment improved and supplier deliveries slowed at a slightly slower rate.

                            “Based on comments from Business Survey Committee respondents, there have been improvements regarding supply chain efficiency, operating capacity and materials availability; however, performance remains less than ideal. Employment continued to improve despite the restricted labor market.”

                            Full release here.

                            US ADP employment grew 208k, steady job gains

                              US ADP private sector employment grew 208k in September, slightly above expectation of 200k. BY sector, goods-producing jobs dropped -29k. But service-providing jobs rose 237k. By company size, small establishments added 58k, medium added 90k, large added 60k. Annual pay was up 7.8% yoy.

                              “We are continuing to see steady job gains,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “While job stayers saw a pay increase, annual pay growth for job changers in September is down from August.”

                              Full release here.

                              Germany Ifo: Wave of inflation isn’t about to subside

                                According to an Ifo survey, price expectations of German businesses rose from 48.1 to 53.5. The balance is obtained by subtracting the percentage of companies that want to lower their prices from the percentage of those that want to raise their prices.

                                For food industry, the indicator rose further from 96.9 to 100, meaning that a 100% of food companies are expecting to raise prices.

                                “Unfortunately, this probably means the wave of inflation isn’t about to subside,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo. “Especially when it comes to gas and electricity, the price pipeline is not yet exhausted.”

                                Full release here.

                                UK PMI services finalized at 50.0, energy crisis hit business and consumer spending

                                  UK PMI Services was finalized at 50.0 in September, down from August’s 50.9, weakest reading since February 2021. PMI Composite was finalized at 49.1, down from prior month’s 49.6, lowest since January 2021.

                                  Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “September data highlighted an absence of growth in the UK service sector for the first time in 19 months as the energy crisis continued to hit business and consumer spending…. Service sector businesses trimmed their growth expectations to the lowest seen for nearly two-and-a-half years in September, which survey respondents linked to concerns about falling disposable income and the unfavourable global economic outlook.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 20-mth low, hopes of avoiding recession further dashed

                                    Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 48.8 in September, down from August’s 49.8, a 19-month low. PMI Composite was finalized at 48.1, down from prior month’s 48.9, a 20-month low.

                                    Looking at some member state, Ireland PMI Composite rose to 52.2 while France rose to 51.2. But Spain dropped to 48.4 (8-month low). Italy dropped to 47.6 (20-month low). Germany dropped to 45.7 (28-month low).

                                    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Any hopes of the eurozone avoiding recession are further dashed by the steepening drop in business activity signalled by the PMI. Not only is the survey pointing to a worsening economic downturn, but the inflation picture has also deteriorated, meaning policymakers face an increasing risk of a hard landing as they seek to rein in accelerating inflation.

                                    Full release here.

                                    AUD/NZD topped but not reversing yet

                                      AUD/NZD spikes lower after RBNZ’s 50bps rate hike. The development also came with the background that RBA disappointed the markets with a 25bps hike yesterday.

                                      Technically, a short term top was in place at 1.1489 after AUD/NZD hit medium term channel resistance. But it’s still early to call for a medium term correction. As long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.1211) holds, the consolidation from 1.1489 should be relatively brief, and larger up trend should resume sooner rather than later.

                                      However, firm break of the 55 day EMA will open up deeper correction through channel support to 1.0987, before having some support for a bounce.

                                      RBNZ hikes by 50bps, considered 75bps

                                        RBNZ raises Official Cash Rate by 50bps 3.50% as widely expected. In the summary of record it’s noted that the Committee considered whether to hike by 50bps or 75bps, but decided that 50bps was appropriate at this meeting.

                                        In the statement, RBNZ noted that domestic spending has remained “resilient”. Employment levels are “high” while productivity capacity is “constrained” by labor shortages. wage pressures are “heightened”. Also, “spending continues to outstrip the capacity to supply goods and services, with a range of indicators continuing to highlight broad-based pricing pressures.”

                                        Full statement here.

                                        Fed Daly: Needs to hold restrictive policies until truly done on inflation

                                          San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Fed needs to raise interest further and hold restrictive policies in place until it’s “truly done” on bring back inflation to 2% target.

                                          “Those interest rate increases slow the economy and they do have spillover effects on currencies in other countries,” Daly said, of the Fed’s interest-rate rises. “But central banks, no matter where you are, are meant to create policy for the nation that they serve, and then we have to be aware of how this affects the global economy because that’s part of the puzzle.”