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Australia’s private sector showed signs of slowing in May, with PMI Composite falling from 51.0 to a 3-month low of 50.6. Manufacturing index held steady at 51.7. But services weakened from 51.0 to 50.5, its lowest level in six months.

According to S&P Global’s Andrew Harker, the sluggishness may be tied in part to election-related uncertainty, which "contributed to slower growth of new orders". Still, firms remained cautiously optimistic, continuing to hire at a "solid pace". With the political noise expected to ease, attention will turn to whether demand picks up in the months ahead.

Full Australia PMI flash release here.

Key Highlights

• WTI Crude Oil prices started a decent increase above the $61.50 level.
• A key rising channel is forming with support at $61.40 on the 4-hour chart.
• Gold prices managed to climb above the $3,240 resistance.
• EUR/USD is recovering and might aim for a move above the 1.1380 resistance zone.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil price found support at $58.50 and recovered against the US Dollar. There was a move above the $60.00 and $60.50 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price settled above the $61.20 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

The bulls even pushed the price above $64.00 before the bears appeared. It seems like the price struggled near the $64.50 resistance zone. There was a pullback below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $60.45 swing low to the $64.53 high.

On the downside, the first major support sits near the $61.40 zone. There is also a key rising channel forming with support at $61.40 on the same chart.

A daily close below $61.40 could open the doors for a larger decline. The next major support is $60.50 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). Any more losses might send oil prices toward $58.00 in the coming days.

On the upside, the price is facing hurdles near the $64.00 level. The first key resistance sits near the $64.50 level. The main hurdle is now near the $65.00 zone, above which the price may perhaps accelerate higher. In the stated case, it could even visit the $66.50 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of the $68.00 resistance zone in the near term.

Looking at Gold, there was a fresh increase above $3,240, but the bears might remain active near the $3,350 level.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 230K, versus 229K previous.
• US Existing Home Sales for April 2025 (MoM) - Forecast +0.1%, versus -5.9% previous.

• Gold (XAU/USD) is testing the $3300 support level amid US Dollar weakness and geopolitical tensions.
• OANDA's position book indicates many buy orders around $3300-3310, suggesting market participants are expecting further gains.
• Lack of High-Impact US Data weighs on the USD and Aids Gold.

Gold prices have reclaimed the $3300/oz handle but there are growing signs of exhaustion as the precious metal looks to consolidate gains.

The rally has been spurred on by US Dollar weakness while haven demand returned overnight as Israel-Iran tensions escalated.

US Tax Bill Uncertainty

The Republicans negotiated through the night on Wednesday over a bill that’s expected to include compromises on the state and local tax deduction and spending cuts. House Speaker Johnson announced this morning that they came to a $40,000 SALT deduction cap agreement. This uncertainty did add to Gold's appeal yesterday and aided haven demand.

Renewed Haven Demand Spurs on Rally

Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, multiple U.S. officials told CNN in a Tuesday report. Haven demand benefitted overnight as concerns rose over a potential wider conflict in the Middle East as a result.

Tensions appear to be on a knife edge following the report, as negotiations between the US and Israel rumble on. Officials told CNN that it’s not yet certain whether or not Israel will decide to ultimately act on its plans, adding that Israeli leaders are likely watching for how the U.S.-Iran deal evolves. The National Security Council, the Israeli Prime Minister’s office, and the Israeli Embassy in Washington did not confirm the reports when asked by CNN and Reuters.

If tension remains then Gold could continue to find support. Any indication that this may not come to fruition could have the opposite impact on Gold and see any safe haven buying temporarily come to a halt.

Gold prices continue to be the best gauge for market sentiment with the precious metal remaining extremely sensitive to any changes. This is likely to continue for now as a host of risks remain but they are slowly moving to the background.

Lack of US Data

The lack of US data is another area where the precious metal has benefited as it has resulted in a weaker US Dollar. The last few weeks has seen the US Dollar receive some support when data has been positive.

Last week's US Data however actually aided the precious metal as growth concerns returned to the fore. Thai sparked the rate conversation once more with Fed policymakers signaling caution as global growth appears to be coming under threat.

OANDA Order and Position Book

Looking at the OANDA position book and you can clearly see below the amount of buy positions open around the 3300-3310 handle. A sign that market participants are expecting further upside.

The Open Position chart provides data from the perspective of the open positions of OANDA clients globally. Depending on the price level on the chart, you can see the distribution of long and short positions held, the profitability (unrealized P&L), and the proportion of total longs and shorts across all price levels.

By seeing how OANDA’s client orders and net positions are distributed across price levels, users have an additional tool that helps analyse potential support and resistance levels at various price points.

https://proptrader.oanda.com/en/lab-education/tools/order-book-position-book-tool/

Source: OANDA Labs

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical analysis standpoint, gold has printed two bearish four-hour candles in a row. There is also a potential evening star candlestick pattern which hints at further downside.

Looking at the candles though, the previous four-hour candle left a massive downside wick and failed to close below the 3300 handle. This is a sign of the buying pressure still evident in Gold markets.

If the 3300 handle holds firm, a move beyond the daily high at 3320 appears likely.

A four-hour candle close below the 3300 handle would be a sign of caution for market participants. It will not however invalidate the bullish structure with a four-hour candle close below the swing low at 3212 needed for such a development to take place.

In short, while bulls remain in control there is a possibility of a deeper retracement if the 3300 handle gives way.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, May 21, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

BTC is less than $1,000 from its all-time highs! Bitcoin and other cryptos appreciated quite well since April 2025, from a rebound in risk assets. Fears from US tariffs were at their peak as President Trump started to put down the microphone and discuss with other foreign politicians. The US dollar as been lagging, giving a further boost to cryptos.

Total Crypto Market Cap since 2024

Crypto Total Market Cap, November 2024 to 21 May, 2025 - Source: TradingView

Bitcoin is coming really close to its all-time highs, right now at $109,200 and its all time-high is at $109,618. Up a staggering 46.5% since April 7th lows, BTC has enjoyed from a risk-on appetite in markets.

Gold for example has been correcting since, off its highs and stock indices around the world have also made all-time highs.

There has been a particularly strong inflow of fresh money into Crypto ETFs, in names like IBIT and FBTC.
ETH appreciated from this inflow also, up at its peak 95% compared to its trough on the 7th of April.

SOL, which went to a high of $295 retraced all the way back to 97$ and experienced a rise similar to Ethereum.

XRP, which did not experience such a drop, recovered 52% from its April lows, is showing signs of consolidation towards a breakout.

Observe technical levels for BTC further in the article.

Crypto ETF Inflows chart. Source: Farside.com

BTC Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Daily Chart, 21 May, 2025. Source: TradingView

BTC is real close to its all-time high! Track the Daily MA 10 which follows closely rebounds in prices.

Fibonacci projections indicate potential resistance levels on a breakout at:

• $111,000-$113,000
• $117,000 - $119,000
• $122,000 - $125,000

Support Zones are:

• $100,000 - $105,000
• $93,000 - $96,500
• $83,000 - $87,000
• $74,400 - $77,000

Overview on the Crypto Market Today is Green!

Crypto Overview, May 21, 2025. Source: Finviz

Safe Trades!

AUDJPY: ⬇️ Sell

• AUDJPY reversed from key resistance level 95.30
• Likely to fall to support level 92.00

AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 95.30 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of March).

The downward reversal from the resistance level 95.30 started the active intermediate correction (B).

Given the strength of the resistance level 95.30 and clear daily downtrend, AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 92.00.

Nikkei 225: ⬇️ Sell

• Nikkei 225 reversed from the resistance level 38280.00
• Likely to fall to support level 36000.00

Nikkei 225 index recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 38280.00 (former top of wave 4 from the start of this year).

The downward reversal from the resistance level 66.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern, Shooting Star.

Given the strength of the resistance level 38280.00, Nikkei 225 index can be expected to fall to the next support level 36000.00.

Brent crude oil: ⬇️ Sell

• Brent crude oil reversed from key resistance level 66.00
• Likely to fall to support level 62.00

Brent crude oil recently reversed down from the key resistance level 66.00, which has been reversing the price from the start of April, as can be seen from the daily Brent crude oil chart below.

The downward reversal from the resistance level 66.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star.

Given the clear daily downtrend, Brent crude oil can be expected to fall to the next support level 62.00.

UK inflation accelerated more strongly than forecast, casting doubt on the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England any time soon. The overall consumer price index increased 1.2% in April, the strongest monthly jump since April 2022. The annual rate of growth accelerated from 2.6% to 3.5%, the highest since January 2024. Core inflation accelerated to an annual rate of 3.8%, the highest in 13 months.

What is most worrying about the current situation is the persistently positive trend in inflation. The overall rate hit a low of 1.7% in September 2024, confirming the correctness of the Bank of England’s decision to kick off the monetary easing cycle shortly before. Further policy easing will now require more justification from the central bank.

Housing, household services, leisure, and culture are the drivers of inflation in Britain right now. These are difficult categories for monetary policy. Unlike commodity and energy prices, we should not expect markets to cool sharply. In these circumstances, the Bank of England needs to pursue a policy of cooling economic growth.

This is good news for the pound, so nothing is surprising in GBPUSD updating its three-year highs. Nevertheless, it’s not easy for the pound to move upwards given the 11% rise from the lows at the start of the year. The latest news is a good signal to get ready for the bulls. However, for the rally to resume, it is still better to wait for hawkish signals from the Bank of England that it is ready to take a pause, like the Fed is now.

Market Picture

Market capitalisation has risen 2% in the last 24 hours to $3.37 trillion, 8.5% below January’s all-time peaks. However, Bitcoin buyers are showing more confidence, trading above the $107k area (+2.9%). Ethereum and many other altcoins saw stronger intraday gains but still have a lot to recover after retreating significantly following the broader market pullback after Trump’s inauguration.

Bitcoin is forming its fourth consecutive daily growth candle. Bulls continue their attempts to secure a foothold above the $107K level. While the first cryptocurrency has briefly reached higher levels, it has yet to establish a sustained hold above them.

Last week, there was a stabilisation around $103k, which now looks like a foundation for further growth. The realistic near-term target for the bulls looks to be the area of $113K, which would be an extension to 161.8% of the growth impulse from early May and the subsequent mini correction at the beginning of last week.

Bitcoin’s upward move is gradually waking up altcoins, although they still have considerable room to rise to previous highs, making them increasingly attractive to retail traders. The trend of a weakening dollar can also be seen as a breeding ground for growth.

News Background

On-chain signals and market data for Bitcoin remain constructive. Buying sentiment continues to support further growth, indicating that it may not yet be time to cash in, according to CryptoQuant.

Strategy bought an additional 7,390 BTC ($764.9 million) last week at an average price of $103,498 per coin. The company now owns 576,230 BTC bought at an average price of $69,726. The total investment is valued at $40.18 billion.

Major players via options have bet on Ethereum’s significant growth, said CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole. The strategy will yield the biggest profits if ETH rises to $6,000 or higher by 26 December.

The Binance exchange has filed a motion to dismiss FTX’s $1.76 bn lawsuit. The company’s lawyers called the claims ‘legally untenable’ and asked for the case to be dismissed.

According to Fortune, Circle’s IPO may not take place as the USDC issuer is in talks with Coinbase and Ripple to sell the business for at least $5bn.