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Canada’s inflation rate accelerated in April as rising gasoline prices pushed headline CPI higher, but softer core inflation measures suggest underlying price pressures remain more contained than feared. CPI rose 0.4% mom in April, below expectations of 0.7% mom, while annual inflation increased from 2.4% yoy to 2.8% yoy, undershooting the expected 3.1% yoy.

Energy prices were once again the dominant driver. Energy inflation surged from 3.9% yoy to 19.2% yoy, while gasoline prices accelerated sharply from 5.9% yoy to 28.6% yoy. Statistics Canada said part of the jump reflected the removal of the consumer carbon levy in April last year dropping out of annual comparisons, creating additional upward pressure on headline CPI. However, excluding gasoline, inflation actually cooled from 2.2% yoy to 2.0% yoy, pointing to easing price momentum across much of the broader economy.

The softer underlying trend was reinforced by Canada’s key core inflation measures, all of which slowed more than expected. CPI common eased to 2.5% yoy, CPI median fell to 2.1% yoy, and CPI trimmed slowed to 2.0% yoy. The data are likely to strengthen the Bank of Canada’s argument that the current inflation spike is largely an externally driven energy shock rather than a sign of renewed domestic inflation overheating, supporting expectations that policymakers will stay patient while assessing how persistent the oil-driven pressures ultimately become.

Full Canada's CPI release here.

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations continue above 1.1607 temporary low. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.1686) holds. Rebound from 1.1408 could have completed as a corrective three-wave move. Break of 1.1607 will bring deeper fall to retest 1.1408 low. However, sustained break of the EMA will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise back to retest 1.1848 instead.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 suggests that the pullback from 1.2081 is more likely a corrective move. Strong support was also found in 55 W EMA (now at 1.1542). Focus is back on 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications. Nevertheless, break of 1.1408 support will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal.

No change in USD/JPY's outlook as rise from 155.01 is in progress to retest 160.71 high Strong resistance is expected from there to start the third leg of the near term corrective pattern. On the downside, break of 158.28 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.36) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and some consolidations would be seen above 1.330. Further fall is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.3469) holds. Below 1.3300 will target a retest on 1.3158 support first. However, sustained break of the EMA will dampen the bearish case and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3657 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.3867 are merely a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). However, firm break of 1.3008 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524, with increased risk of bearish reversal.

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.7760 is trying to resume after brief retreat. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7923 resistance. Firm break there will argue that fall from 0.8041 has completed as a three wave correction, and bring further rise to retest this high. On the downside, below 0.7837 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8035) holds, fall from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of the larger down trend. Firm break of 0.7603 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

No change in AUD/USD's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.7101 support intact, further rise remains in favor. On the upside, firm break of 0.7277 will resume larger up trend. However, decisive break of 0.7101 will bring deeper decline back towards 0.6832 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should then be seen to retest 0.8006. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6832 support holds, in case of pullback.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays mildly on the upside as rebound from 1.3549 is in progress. This rise is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3480. Further rise would be seen towards 1.3965 resistance. On the downside, below 1.3729 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral again with current rebound. Consolidations from 210.43 is extending with another rising leg. On the downside, firm break of 210.43 will resume the corrective fall from 21658. However, sustained break of 214.40 will bring stronger rise back to retest 216.58 high instead.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 216.58 is steep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 205.91) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, pullback from 187.93 could have completed at 182.01 already. Further rise is in favor as long as 184.02 minor support holds. Above 185.44 will target a retest on 187.93 high. Nevertheless, break of 184.02 minor support will turn bias back to the downside towards 182.01 again.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 187.93 is steep, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.27) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral again with current steep retreat. Range trading should continue between 0.8610/0.8740 first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8740 should pave the way through 0.8788 to retest 0.8863 high. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.8610 will revive the case of bearish trend reversal.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.