'The PMI, New Orders, and Production Indexes all registered their highest levels since November of 2014, and comments from the panel are generally positive regarding demand levels and business conditions'. -Bradley Holcomb, ISM

US private companies created far more jobs than expected in January, data published on Wednesday showed. The ADP National Employment Report, a jobs survey released two days before the official Bureau of Labor Statistics government report, revealed that the US private sector saw an increase of 246,000 jobs last month, surpassing markedly analysts' expectations for 165,000. Meanwhile, the December figure of 153,000 was revised slightly down to 151,000. Analysts widely expect the NFP report to show on Friday a 170,000 jobs gain for January, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.7%. Separately, the Institute of Supply Management reported its Purchasing Managers' Index advanced to 56.0 in January, up from the preceding month's reading of 54.5 and surpassing analysts' expectations for 55.0 points. Any reading above the 50 point level indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, the New Orders Index and Employment Index advanced to 60.4 and 56.1 in the reported month, respectively. Meanwhile, the Price Paid Index rose to 69.0 for the eleventh consecutive month in January, compared with 65.5 previously. The number slightly topped economists' forecasts for an increase to 66.0.

'A record trade surplus shows that the surge in commodity prices is boosting nominal GDP. The most recent increases in the volume of exports implies that real GDP in the fourth quarter of last year at least may prove to be a bit stronger than we had thought'. -Paul Dales, Capital Economics

The number of Australian building approvals dropped in December after rising markedly in the preceding month, official data showed on Thursday. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported building approvals fell 1.2% on a monthly basis in December, following November's upwardly revised jump of 7.5%. Nonetheless, the December figure was better than analysts' expectations of a 1.7% drop. On an annual basis, Australian building approvals decreased 11.4%. House building permits declined 1.6% month-over-month, whereas other dwelling approvals climbed 0.9%. The Australian construction sector is beginning to fade. However, so far it has experienced a rather slow decline in activity. In 2017, the construction sector is likely to see a rise of 212,000 new dwellings, according to the latest forecasts released by Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Meanwhile, the average house price is expected to grow just 5% in 2017 amid slow household income growth. Separately, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said the country's trade surplus hit A$3.51 billion in December, compared to the prior month's upwardly revised surplus of A$2.04 billion, while economists anticipated a decline to A$2.00 billion. As a result, the Kiwi rose to 76.30 against the Greenback, up from 76.00 seen ahead of the release.

The Aussie rallied on upbeat Australian data and being also boosted by weaker US dollar.

The pair broke firmly above former congestion tops and also took out Fibo barrier at 0.7630. Bulls are looking for the upper Bollinger band at 0.7690 that may temporarily cap gains as daily studies are overbought.

Hourly trough at 0.7633 marks initial support ahead of former congestion tops at 0.7600 zone and rising daily 10SMA at 0.7573 that is holding today’s action.

Strong bullish setup of daily studies, with multiple MA’s bull-crosses, strongly underpins for further bullish extension.

Break above 0.7690 barrier could extend towards 0.7758/0.7776 (11 Aug / 08 Nov 2016 highs).

US NFP data are in focus.

Res: 0.7690, 0.7758, 0.7776, 0.7833
Sup: 0.7633, 0.7600, 0.7575, 0.7549

The pair remains biased lower despite repeated failure to close below strong support at 112.50 that was cracked on Tuesday. Near-term action remains capped by daily Tenkan-sen (113.71) that maintains downside pressure. Bearish daily studies favor renewed probe below 112.50 for retest of next pivot at 112.00 zone (Fibo 38.2% of 101.17/118.65 upleg), break of which would signal fresh bearish acceleration. Conversely, lift above daily Tenkan-sen pivot 113.71) and past two days highs at 113.94, would ease persisting bearish pressure and signal prolonged directionless trading within 112.50/115.60 range. Daily Kijun-sen (115.33) marks next upper pivot, along with daily cloud top at 116.10. Tomorrow's US NFP data are expected to give more clues about pair's near-term direction.

Res: 113.34, 113.71, 113.94, 114.56
Sup: 112.50, 111.97, 111.34, 111.00

Cable is attacking key barrier at 1.2671 after strong two-day rally fully retraced 1.2671/1.2409 pullback.

Strong bullish setup of daily technical studies supports further upside, with bullish and long-tailed monthly candle of January underpinning.

Firm break above 1.2671 pivot would open breakpoint at 1.2772 (06 Dec 2016 high and top of broader 1.2772/1.2000 consolidation cycle) for stronger reversal signal.

Meantime, corrective easing could be anticipated on overbought slow stochastic.

Rising daily 10SMA continues to track the uptrend and offers good support at 1.2555, where potential dips should be ideally contained to keep intact lower breakpoint at 1.2409 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1986/1.2671 ascend/55/100SMA bull-cross).

Interim support lies at 1.2615 (Fibo 23.6% of 1.2411/1.2678 upleg/hourly trough).

Res: 1.2726, 1.2772, 1.2795, 1.2864
Sup: 1.2645, 1.2615, 1.2555, 1.2541

The Euro is heading towards key near-term barriers at 1.0800 zone after yesterday's pullback was contained at 1.0733 (near 38.2% of 1.0618/1.0810 upleg).

The pair received fresh boost from less hawkish than expected Fed yesterday and managed to recover most of 1.0806/1.0733 pullback. With bullish daily studies being unaffected from yesterday's dip, focus remains at the upside as fresh acceleration higher is probing again falling 100SMA (currently at 1.0791), which lies just ahead of pivotal barriers at 1.0806/10 double top (highs of past two days) and 1.0824 (daily cloud top).

Sustained break here is needed to trigger fresh acceleration higher that would look for psychological 1.1000 barrier, also 200SMA. Strong near-term bullish sentiment supports scenario for now, as trader eye tomorrow's US jobs data.

Thick hourly cloud underpins near-term action (cloud top is currently at 1.0768 and marks initial support), with lower pivot at 1.0715 (hourly cloud base/daily Tenkan-sen).

Res: 1.0810, 1.0824, 1.0872, 1.0931
Sup: 1.0768, 1.0733, 1.0715, 1.0683

EURUSD

The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower bottomed at 1.0729 but closed a little bit higher at 1.0767 and hit 1.0788 earlier today. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall price is still in a bullish phase since bounce from 1.0350 as you can see on my H1 chart below. Immediate support is seen around 1.0730 but key support remains at 1.0650. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.0800 followed by 1.0850/70. Overall I remain neutral.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.2679. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.2750 before testing 1.2790 key resistance which is a good place to sell with a tight stop loss. Immediate support is seen around 1.2615. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.2565 area. Overall I remain neutral.

USDJPY

The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push higher topped at 113.95 but closed lower at 113.22. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bearish bias testing 112.00 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 113.50 followed by 113.95. As long as stay below 115.60 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase and any upside pullback should be seen as a good opportunity to sell.

USDCHF

The USDCHF failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday topped at 0.9956. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall price is still in a valid bearish phase targeting 0.9800. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9956. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pullback testing 1.0000 area. Overall I remain neutral.

Sunrise Market Commentary

• Rates: Fed keeps it simple; US Treasuries rebound
  US Treasuries rebounded as the Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged without giving a hint about when the tightening cycle will continue. Its policy statement was nearly a copy for the December one. Today's eco calendar is thin with only US weekly jobless claims. Speeches by ECB governors and the BoE policy meeting are wildcards.
• Currencies: Fed doesn't help the dollar
  Yesterday, the USD returned gains eked out after strong eco data as the Fed stayed muted on the timing of further rate increases. Today, a cautious risk-off sentiment may continue to weigh on the dollar. Sterling traders keep a close eye on the BoE policy decision. A positive BoE assessment might be (moderately) supportive for sterling

The Sunrise Headlines

• US stock markets ended close to unchanged with Nasdaq outperforming (+0.5%). Overnight, most Asian stock markets lose ground with Japan underperforming on the back of a stronger yen.
• The Federal Reserve kept its monetary policy unchanged and said it remains on track to gradually raise short-term interest rates this year without giving a hint about when the next increase might come.
• Facebook's revenue and earnings soared in the fourth quarter despite investors' concerns sales will slow as it hits the limit on how many advertisements it puts in its news feed.
• Australia boasted its biggest trade surplus on record in December as surging commodity prices showered the resource-rich nation in cash, a windfall that could lessen the risk of a downgrade to its triple A credit ratings.
• Theresa May won lawmakers' OK to trigger EU separation talks by the end of March, though lawmakers warned not to mistake that for unconditional support to negotiate freely. The government outlines its strategy today.
• Italy has pledged to meet the EU's demands for extra cuts to its budget deficits by ramping up its tax evasion efforts and introducing new spending cuts, though the timing and precise scale of the move remain uncertain.
• President Trump urged Republicans in the Senate to make a major change to the chamber's voting rules if Judge Gorsuch can't attract the necessary Democratic support to win confirmation for the Supreme Court.
• Today it's Carney's first "Super Thursday" of 2017, with the BOE chief presiding over a policy decision, new inflation forecasts and a press conference. ECB Draghi, Praet and Coeure speak and US weekly jobless claims will be published

Currencies: Fed Doesn't Help The Dollar

Dollar in the defensive as Fed stays muted

On Wednesday, risk sentiment improved. Initially, dollar gains remained very limited. A very strong ADP report and a solid US manufacturing ISM propelled the dollar, even as investors remained cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting. The Fed policy statement didn't give any hint on the timing of a next rate hike. Investors expected something more sending USD bond yields a few basis points lower. The dollar lost most of its intraday gains. USD/JPY closed the session at 113.25. EUR/USD finished the day at 1.0769.

Overnight, Asian equities open mixed, but are drifting well into negative territory. The dollar remains in the defensive in the wake of yesterday's dull Fed statement. This is often a positive for Asian equities (ex-Japan), but not today. USD/JPY declines and is changing hands in the 112.65 area. So, the correction low (112.08) is on the radar. EUR/USD is returning to the 1.08 barrier.

Today, there are no key eco releases. US. So the focus for USD trading will be on global issues. Investors will also look forward to tomorrow's US payrolls. There is no direct link between the BoE policy decision and the timing of any further steps of the Fed. However, the BoE completing its asset purchases and raising its growth forecasts might be another sign that global monetary conditions are gradually turning to tighter. If so, there might be some positive spill-over effects on the dollar. On the other hand, the Fed clearly doesn't want to anticipate on the expected pro-growth policy of the Trump administration. This is a short-term dollar negative. At the same time, the risk momentum is apparently again turning risk-off today, as investors are growing nervous on the unconventional policy style and the protectionist approach of the Trump administration. So, Trump-driven uncertainty might weigh on the USD. However, the losses of the dollar might remain limited ahead of tomorrow's US payrolls. Yesterday's price reaction showed that, despite rising global uncertainty, the dollar is still sensitive to strong US eco data. So, a break of the EUR/USD 1.0874 is unlikely today.

Global context. Of late, the USD rally due to the Trump reflation trade petered out. Even more, the Trump politics/communication is becoming a sources of global uncertainty that weighs on the dollar. EUR/USD cleared a next minor resistance at 1.0775. Next resistance is coming in at 1.0874. The day-to-day USD momentum has become more fragile. A return above EUR/USD 1.0874 would question the short-term USD positive outlook. At some point, the absolute interest rate support should provide a USD floor, but we are not in a hurry to play this card. We wait for technical signals that the USD correction has run its course. Tomorrow's payrolls, if strong, might provide such a signal. USD/JPY is trading well off the post-Trump highs (118.60/66). The rebound off the lows (112.08) isn't convincing. USD/JPY 111.16 (38% retracement of the 99.02/118.66 rally) is the next key support.

EUR/USD dollar remains in the defensive as Fed remains cautious on further rate hike

EUR/GBP

BoE to support sterling?

Yesterday, the UK currency found its composure after a setback on Tuesday. The UK January manufacturing PMI printed in line with expectations at 55.9, but prices rose sharply, questioning the appropriateness of an ongoing ultra-easy BoE policy. EUR/GBP started a gradual but protracted intraday downtrend. The positive risk sentiment also supported sterling, in particular against the euro. Investors were also looking forward to today's BoE policy meeting. EUR/GBP closed the session at 0.8509. Cable also profited from a softer dollar post-Fed and finished the session at 1.2659, testing the recent highs.

Today, the focus for sterling trading will be on the BoE's policy decision. The BoE will probably acknowledge the resilience of the UK economy post Brexit and raise its growth forecasts. The inflation forecast will probably be little changed. The BoE already expected an overshoot of the target due to the decline of sterling. Until now, the BoE maintained a relatively soft policy bias related to the uncertainty/potential negative impact of the Brexit-process. We expect that this will remain the case. The BoE is also expected to finish its bond buying plan this month, as planned. Carney probably will try to avoid further market rate hike speculation. However, individual members might stress upside risks. We expect a balanced approach, but the market/sterling is probably more sensitive to positive signals/deviations rather than to warnings of downside risks. In this context, a retest of the 0.8450 support is possible

EUR/GBP: 0.8450 support still within reach going into the BoE policy decision”

Download entire Sunrise Market Commentary

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD is retesting the resistance trend line (red). A bearish bounce could confirm a wave X (blue) and see price test the Fibonacci levels of wave B (green). A break above the 138.2% Fibonacci level of wave X vs W invalidates wave X (blue) and makes an uptrend likely.

The GBP/USD seems to be building a rising wedge chart pattern (red/green). A breakout (arrows) could occur to both sides of the support and resistance trend lines.

Currency pair EUR/USD

The EUR/USD showed a bearish bounce as expected at the 88.6% level resistance level. The bearish bounce however has been choppy and mild. A break above the 88.6% makes a wave 2 (brown) unlikely and a break above 100% invalidates this wave structure. A break below support (blue) could spark wave 3 (green).

The EUR/USD is showing hesitation when developing bearish price action and is finding support along the way. Price bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level of wave X vs W and is now retesting the resistance trend line (red).

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is retracing back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple). Either the 38.2% or 50% are likely bounce spots for such a wave 4 (purple).

The USD/JPY is building a bearish ABC (orange) zigzag within wave Y (blue).

A note on lower timeframe confirming price action…

Waiting for lower timeframe confirmation is our main tool to confirm strength within higher timeframe zones, and has really been the key to our trading success. It takes a little time to understand the subtle nuances, however, as each trade is never the same, but once you master the rhythm so to speak, you will be saved from countless unnecessary losing trades. The following is a list of what we look for:

• A break/retest of supply or demand dependent on which way you're trading.
• A trendline break/retest.
• Buying/selling tails – essentially we look for a cluster of very obvious spikes off of lower timeframe support and resistance levels within the higher timeframe zone.
• Candlestick patterns. We tend to only stick with pin bars and engulfing bars as these have proven to be the most effective.

EUR/USD

For those who read Wednesday's report on the EUR you may recall that our desk executed a market sell order at 1.0798, with a stop placed at 1.0824. Fueled by the upbeat numbers seen from both the US ADP non-farm employment change and US manufacturing PMIs, the trade struck the H4 support area at 1.0765-1.0753 during yesterday's sessions. 50% of the position was taken off the table, and risk was also reduced to breakeven. The final take-profit zone, according to our team, is set around the 1.07 neighborhood which is sited only a few pips south of daily support coming in at 1.0710.

Why we entered short where we did was due to the following converging structures: a H4 Quasimodo resistance level at 1.0796, a 1.08 handle, a H4 88.6% Fib resistance at 1.0810, Weekly resistance at 1.0819 and a H4 symmetrical AB=CD approach terminating at 1.0805. Well done to any of our readers who jumped on board here!

Our suggestions: Although there is a chance that price may retest the above noted H4 sell zone today, thereby taking us out of the current position, an additional retest could offer traders (and us) a second opportunity to trade this area. Why would we look to enter here when the zone may have been weakened by yesterday's decline? Good question! Well, apart from the fact that weekly resistance at 1.0819 is now IN PLAY, stops below the H4 support area mentioned above at 1.0765-1.0753 have also very likely been taken out, thus clearing the path south down to 1.07ish.

Data points to consider: ECB President Draghi speaks at 12.15 pm. US Jobless claims at 1.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.0798 ([live position] stop loss: breakeven).

GBP/USD

Following the FOMC's decision to leave interest rates unchanged, as expected, sterling gravitated north from the top edge of a H4 support area coming in at 1.2611-1.2589. In consequence to this, the H4 mid-way resistance at 1.2650 was engulfed, potentially clearing the trail north to a H4 Quasimodo resistance drawn from 1.2699. What is quite notable here, at least from a technical standpoint, is its surrounding confluence! Fusing not only with the 1.27 psychological handle, it is also housed within a daily supply at 1.2728-1.2657, as well as positioned only 25 or so pips above the weekly Quasimodo resistance at 1.2673.

Our suggestions: On the data front today the GBP has a rather busy schedule ahead, with the main event being the BoE's monetary policy decision. However, dependent on the time of day, one could possibly look to sell from the 1.27 mark without the need for additional confirmation, as stops can be positioned above the aforementioned daily supply around the 1.2730 range.

Data points to consider: UK Construction PMI at 9.30am, UK BoE inflation report and Interest-rate decision at 12.00pm followed by BoE Gov. Carney due to speak at 12.30pm. US Jobless claims at 1.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.27 region ([possible area to look at selling from without the need for additional confirmation] stop loss: 1.2730 – 2 pips above daily supply).

AUD/USD

The Aussie dollar, as you can see, spent yesterday's session clinging to the H4 channel support extended from the low 0.7449. While upside remains capped by the 0.76 handle and the nearby November's opening level at 0.7606, we feel it's only a matter of time before the bulls take charge and rise above these barriers. Our reasoning lies within the higher-timeframe structures. Over on the weekly chart, the weekly candles indicate bullish intent given the successful retest of a weekly support area at 0.7524-0.7450. In conjunction with the weekly timeframe, daily price is seen teasing the top edge of a daily supply zone coming in at 0.7581-0.7551. In the event that this barrier gives way, which we believe it will, the next upside hurdle on the hit list can be seen at 0.7720: a daily resistance level that is located 30 or so pips ahead of a weekly supply at 0.7849-0.7752 (the next upside target on the weekly scale).

Our suggestions: Before our team looks to become buyers in this market, nevertheless, we'd need to see a decisive H4 bullish close above the 0.7606 region. That way, we can be relatively sure that offers within the current daily supply are exhausted. A H4 close above this number, followed by a retest and either a lower-timeframe confirming buy signal (see the top of this report) or a H4 bullish candle close would, in our opinion, be sufficient enough to enter into a buy trade.

Data points to consider: Aussie building approvals and trade balance at 12.30am. US Jobless claims at 1.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Watch for a H4 close to be seen above 0.7606 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter ([waiting for a lower-timeframe confirming setup to form following the retest is advised prior to pulling the trigger] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/JPY

The buyers managed to find their feet early on in the day yesterday, successfully breaking above the 113 psychological handle. US ADP non-farm employment change, along with US manufacturing PMIs both came in above expectations, thus boosting the appeal to own US assets. Despite this, however, price failed to muster enough strength to overcome the 114 band and, fueled by the recent FOMC meeting, consequently dropped to lows of 112.83 by the close.

As of this time, we can see that the weekly candles have space to push south this week down to the weekly support area penciled in at 111.44-110.10. However, daily demand at 111.35-112.37, which is positioned on top of the above noted weekly support area, is still very much in play right now.

Our suggestions: Buying from 113 today would, in our book of technical charms, be considered a risky move. There's very little confluence supporting this line both on the H4 chart and on the higher timeframes. While a breakdown through this level may encourage further selling to H4 demand at 112.05-112.37 (housed within the aforementioned daily demand), a short beyond this number places one in direct conflict with daily buyers! Therefore, opting to stand on the sidelines today may very well be the better path to take.

Data points to consider: US Jobless claims at 1.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/CAD

Exacerbated by yesterday's FOMC meeting where interest rates were left unchanged, the H4 supply at 1.3123-1.3093 (bolstered by a H4 61.8% Fib resistance at 1.3091 and the 1.31 handle) held beautifully. This was a noted zone to watch for shorts assuming that the lower-timeframe action chalked in a sell setup. As price rebounded so fast, lower-timeframe confirmation was unfortunately not seen. Nevertheless, well done to any of our readers who managed to net some green pips here!

At the time of writing, the H4 candles recently squeezed through the H4 mid-way support at 1.3050 and looks to be on course to shake hands with the 1.30 handle. Seeing as how both weekly and daily price remain within demand at the moment (1.3006-1.3115/ 1.3006-1.3041), 1.30, coupled with a H4 trendline support extended from the low 1.3080, could potentially provide a floor in this market today.

Our suggestions: Although the higher-timeframe candles are positioned within demand, both areas recently suffered a breach, thus possibly weakening the zones. As a result, we feel the best method of approach here would be to wait for price to strike the 1.30 neighborhood and see if the H4 candles are able to print a reasonably sized H4 bull candle. Of course, this will not guarantee a winning trade, but what it will do is indicate whether or not there is buyer interest here.

Data points to consider: US Jobless claims at 1.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.30 region ([wait for a H4 bull candle to form before looking to execute a trade] stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/CHF

Going into the early hours of yesterday morning, the pair marginally closed above the 0.99 handle and retested the line as support. This – coupled with upbeat numbers seen from both the US ADP non-farm employment change and US manufacturing PMIs, helped lift the H4 candles up to H4 supply at 0.9966-0.9949. As you can see, reinforced by the FOMC leaving rates on hold, bids dried up after connecting with this zone and sent the unit to lows of 0.9909 on the day.

With the above in mind, here is how we see this market at the moment:

• Weekly action recently broke through weekly support at 0.9943, but is currently being supported by a weekly trendline taken from the low 0.9443.
• Daily flow is, as you can see, retesting the underside of the above noted weekly support as resistance.

Our suggestions: While H4 supply could continue to hold firm today given that it's wrapped around the recently broken weekly support, let's not forget that parity (1.0000) is lurking just above. This number alone attracts a huge amount of attention, but when combined with two H4 trendline resistances (0.9959/1.0335), which also sits just below a daily trendline resistance drawn from the high 0.9956, a reaction is highly probable!

Essentially, we're recommending keeping an eyeball on both the H4 supply zone, and parity today. Whether or not the trader deems these areas to be stable enough to trade without additional confirmation is, of course, dependent on one's trade plan. For us, we would require lower-timeframe confirming action (see the top of this report) to be seen before a sell trade can be executed. We require it at parity since there is no structural supply to the left of current price on the H4, and we also require it at the H4 supply since this will be its second retest!

Data points to consider: US Jobless claims at 1.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.9966-0.9949 ([wait for a lower-timeframe confirming setup to form before looking to execute a trade] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area). 1.0000 neighborhood ([wait for a lower-timeframe confirming setup to form before looking to execute a trade] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).

DOW 30

US equity prices are little changed this morning, despite yesterday's upbeat US economic data. The H4 candles are seen loitering mid-range between a daily resistance level at 19964 and a H4 demand coming in at 19785-19803. Meanwhile, up on the weekly chart, the index is currently hovering just ahead of the 2017 yearly opening level at 19769. A decisive weekly close beyond this range could spark another wave of selling down to the weekly demand area at 19071-19222. Before this can be achieved, however, a daily close below the daily support at 19747 would, of course, need to be seen!

With the above noted H4 demand likely weakened by the recent attack, the next level of interest on our radar is still 19759: a sneaky H4 Quasimodo support that is bolstered by the 2017 yearly opening base and the nearby daily support.

Our suggestions: Given the confluence in place around the current H4 Quasimodo support, our team still has a pending buy order placed at 19760, with a stop set just below the apex of the Quasimodo formation (see black arrow) at 19730.

Data points to consider: US Jobless claims at 1.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 19760 ([pending order] stop loss: 19730).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GOLD

Kicking off this morning's report with a look at the weekly chart, we can see that the weekly bulls are currently attempting to overcome the weekly trendline resistance taken from the low 1130.1. In the event that they succeed here, the next angle on the horizon is seen around the weekly resistance level at 1241.2. The story on the daily chart, however, shows that the candles remain capped by a daily supply area fixed at 1220.9-1212.0. Therefore, unless a daily close is seen above this area, our desk will not commit to any medium/long-term longs in the gold market.

Sliding over to the H4 timeframe, the H4 support area at 1198.4-1203.8 held beautifully going into yesterday's US segment. Despite this, the yellow metal was effectively unchanged by the closing bell. A notable area of interest for our team on this scale today is the H4 Quasimodo resistance level at 1217.5, which, as you can see, converges beautifully with a H4 trendline resistance taken from the low 1187.7 and also sits within the above said daily supply.

Our suggestions: Put simply, we'll be keeping a close tab on the H4 Quasimodo resistance today. Should price connect with this line and pencil in a lower-timeframe sell signal (see the top of this report), our team would look to sell, targeting the aforementioned H4 support area as an initial take-profit target.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1217.5 region ([wait for a lower-timeframe confirming setup to form before looking to execute a trade] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).