Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8019; (P) 0.8047; (R1) 0.8092; More…

Current rise from 0.7878 is seen as correcting whole fall from 0.9200. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.8170 resistance. Firm break there will target 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7828 at 0.8352. On the downside, below 0.8001 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6526; (P) 0.6569; (R1) 0.6598; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.6519 support and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (0.6558) will confirm rejection by 0.6713 fibonacci resistance, and bring deeper fall to 0.6413 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403). Nevertheless, above 0.6628 resistance will retain near term bullishness, and bring retest of 0.6706 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3959; (P) 1.3996; (R1) 1.4059; More...

USD/CAD's rise from 1.3538 resumed with acceleration. Intraday bias is back on the upside with focus on 1.4014/7 cluster resistance. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 1.4719 has completed at 1.3538 already. Further rise should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.4312. On the downside, though, break of 1.3930 should indicate rejection by 1.4014/7 and bring deeper fall back to 1.3725 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017) holds. However sustained trading above 1.4014 will suggest that it's more likely just a correction, and the larger up trend would be in favor to resume through 1.4791 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9307; (P) 0.9319; (R1) 0.9336; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral, and further decline is still expected with 0.9371 resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.9295 will resume the fall from 0.9425 to 0.9265 support. Firm break there will bring deeper decline to 0.9218 low.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8671; (P) 0.8685; (R1) 0.8707; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point. On the downside, below 0.8654 will resume the fall from 0.8750 to 0.8631 support. Decisive break there will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8750 at 0.8548. However, break of 0.8703 will suggest that pull back from 0.8750 has completed and bring retest of this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move. While further rally cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, firm break of 0.8631 support will be the first sign that this corrective bounce has completed. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8539) will confirm, and bring retest of 0.8221 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7584; (P) 1.7630; (R1) 1.7688; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.8155 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.8554 high. Deeper decline should be seen to 100% projection of 1.8155 to 1.7588 from 1.7929 at 1.7362. On the upside, above 1.7672 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 176.56; (P) 177.25; (R1) 177.74; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 177.91 temporary top. Downside should be contained above 175.03 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 177.91 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 172.24 at 180.15 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is resuming with break of 175.41 (2024 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 166.82) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 203.03; (P) 203.96; (R1) 204.61; More...

A temporary top was formed at 205.30 with current retreat, and intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral for consolidations. Downside should b contained above 201.24 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 205.30 will resume the rise from 197.47 to 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 199.96 from 197.47 at 207.11.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. This will now remain the favored case long as 197.47 support holds.

Yen recovered modestly in Asian session as Tokyo officials reissued verbal warnings against excessive moves in the currency market. After the week's accelerated selling following Sanae Takaichi’s election as LDP leader, the latest remarks from Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato suggest Japan may be nearing an intervention threshold, at least rhetorically. For now, traders appear to be scaling back short positions, hinting that Yen’s near-term selling climax could be behind it.

Kato said authorities were closely watching “one-sided, rapid moves on the foreign exchange market,” reiterating that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals and move in an orderly manner. “The government will thoroughly monitor for excessive fluctuations and disorderly movements,” he emphasized. Still, he struck a balanced note on the impact of the weaker Yen, acknowledging that “the extent and nature of these effects vary depending on the domestic and global environment", suggesting that actual intervention is not imminent.

Former BoJ board member Atsushi Takeuchi also weighed in, telling Reuters that authorities would likely tolerate gradual declines but intervene if speculation about the Yen sliding to 160–170 per Dollar gains traction. “If the Yen falls that much, authorities could and must step in,” he said. While intervention “can’t change the broad market trend", it can "put a pause to sharp Yen declines.”

Meanwhile, Prime Minister-designate Sanae Takaichi is trying to walk a fine line. On one hand, she said she does not want to trigger excessive depreciation. On the other, she stressed that the BoJ’s policy decisions must align with government priorities, hinting at a preference for demand-driven inflation and cautioning against premature rate hikes. That stance could delay further BoJ tightening and leave Yen vulnerable in a risk-on environment.

Elsewhere, attention turns to Canada’s employment report due later today, a key input for the BoC’s October 29 rate decision. The BoC resumed rate cuts in September after a soft patch in the labor market and cited export weakness—linked to U.S. tariff policy—as a major uncertainty. A steady employment reading could justify a pause, but another downbeat print—particularly in manufacturing and export-heavy sectors—could tilt the balance toward more easing. USD/CAD is now pressing key resistance level at 1.4, and the next move is decisive for the near-term trend.

In the broader currency markets, Dollar is currently the week’s strongest performer, followed by Loonie and Aussie. Yen still sits at the bottom, trailed by Euro and Swiss Franc, while Sterling and the Kiwi hover in the middle of the pack.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.98%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.14%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.51%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.08%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.02 at 1.699. Overnight, DOW fell -0.52%. S&P 500 fell -0.28%. NASDAQ fell -0.08%. 10-year yield rose 0.019 to 4.148.

Fed’s Barr sees need for caution, notes stronger spending and sticky inflation

Fed Governor Michael Barr said in a speech overnight that monetary policy remains “modestly restrictive”, and supported the decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 bps at the September meeting. He said the move brought the stance “a bit closer toward neutral,” but emphasized that further adjustments should depend on new data and the evolving balance of risks.

Barr noted that since the September meeting, consumer spending has surprised to the upside, with data showing activity on a “notably stronger trajectory” than previously thought. That, he said, prompted most observers to revise up forecasts for GDP growth through the remainder of the year. Inflation, meanwhile, “moved up as expected,” with core PCE remaining well above the 2% target.

The Fed governor cautioned that “considerable uncertainty” continues to cloud the outlook. Slower payroll growth could be a “harbinger of worse to come,” he said, though it might also stabilize given the low unemployment rate and solid growth backdrop. On inflation, he warned that tariffs could have only a modest effect on prices—or, conversely, trigger renewed price pressures if expectations begin to rise.

Barr concluded that the FOMC should remain “cautious” about adjusting policy until more evidence clarifies the direction of the economy. “If we see inflation moving further away from our target, it may be necessary to keep policy at least modestly restrictive for longer,” he said. “If we see heightened risks in the labor market, we may need to move more quickly to ease policy.”

Fed’s Williams sees lower rates this year, tariff impact on inflation as limited

New York Fed President John Williams said in an interview with The New York Times that he still expects interest rates to be lower by year-end, but emphasized that the pace and extent of easing will depend on incoming data.

When asked about the possibility of two additional 25bps reductions, Williams said that would depend on whether inflation and employment evolve broadly in line with his outlook. He expects inflation to “move up a bit to around near 3%” and unemployment to edge slightly higher, in which case “policy should evolve the way we expect.”

But he warned against complacency, noting that it would be “very damaging to the economy and the Fed’s credibility” if inflation were allowed to rise well above 2% without action.

Williams downplayed fears that President Donald Trump’s tariffs were fueling persistent inflation. He estimated the measures have lifted the price level by only 0.25 to 0.5 percentage point, adding that “underlying inflation seems to be moving gradually lower toward 2%.” He also said there were no signs of second-round effects, suggesting tariffs are having limited spillovers on broader price dynamics.

At the same time, Williams pointed to rising downside risks to employment, which he said were offsetting some of the upside risk to inflation.

Japan producer prices hold at 2.7% as import declines ease in September

Japan’s corporate goods price index rose 2.7% yoy in September, unchanged from August and slightly above expectations of 2.5%. The data suggest that while upstream cost pressures remain contained, they have yet to fade meaningfully.

Yen-based import price index declined -0.8% yoy, a much smaller drop than August’s -3.9%, pointing to easing import deflation as Yen’s weakness and rising global input costs filter through.

In terms of components, food and beverage prices climbed 4.7% yoy, following a 4.9% in August. Agricultural goods prices, including rice, jumped 30.5%, moderating from August’s 41% surge.

RBA’s Bullock: Inflation back in band but services still sticky, jobs market tight

RBA Governor Michele Bullock told lawmakers today that the economy is in a “pretty good spot,” with inflation back within the 2–3% target band and the labor market still tight. Speaking before a parliamentary committee in Canberra, she said, "the key now is to make sure it stays there sustainably.”

She said that services inflation remains the main concern, running “a little sticky” at around 3%, even as goods inflation continues to moderate. That offset has kept headline inflation contained for now.

On employment, Bullock said the labor market is in “a pretty good place”, though “possibly a little bit tight” in certain sectors. The RBA expects unemployment to edge higher over the coming months, a move consistent with a gradual rebalancing.

She also highlighted that household consumption is picking up, filling the gap left by weaker public demand—an important transition, she said, to keep growth on track.

NZ BNZ manufacturing flat at 49.9, firms cite soft demand and rising costs

New Zealand’s BNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index held steady at 49.9 in September, marking another month of contraction and remaining below its long-term average of 52.4.

The data highlighted a mixed picture across key components — production edged up from 47.8 to 50.1, barely returning to expansion, while employment dropped from 49.1 to 47.5, weighing on the overall index. New orders also slipped from 54.7 to 50.3, suggesting softening demand momentum.

BusinessNZ Director of Advocacy Catherine Beard said it was encouraging that the PMI did not show deeper contraction, but the sector remained “agonizingly close to returning to expansion mode.” She added weakness in employment prevented the headline figure from crossing the 50 threshold.

Survey respondents continued to highlight muted customer demand and rising cost pressures, with 60% of comments negative, up from August. Manufacturers reported lower order volumes, tight margins, and competitive pricing pressures, reflecting both domestic uncertainty and subdued export demand.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 203.03; (P) 203.96; (R1) 204.61; More...

A temporary top was formed at 205.30 with current retreat, and intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral for consolidations. Downside should b contained above 201.24 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 205.30 will resume the rise from 197.47 to 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 199.96 from 197.47 at 207.11.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. This will now remain the favored case long as 197.47 support holds.

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY rallied above 150.50 and 152.00.
• The pair could aim for more gains if it clears the 153.20 resistance on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD extended losses below 1.1620 and 1.1600.
• GBP/USD is also moving lower below the 1.3450 pivot level.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a fresh surge above 150.00 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY cleared many hurdles near 150.50, 151.20, and 152.00.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair climbed above 153.00 before the bears appeared. The pair started a short-term consolidation phase and corrected some pips. On the downside, there is key support at 152.50.

The next area of interest might be near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 146.58 swing low to the 153.22 high. The main support could be 150.00.

Any more losses might increase selling pressure and send the pair toward the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour) at 148.20. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 146.58 swing low to the 153.22 high.

To start a decent increase, USD/JPY must settle above 153.20. The main hurdle could be 153.80. A close above 153.80 could start a steady increase to 155.00.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair faced an increase in selling pressure, resulting in a drop below the 1.1620 support zone.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for Oct 2025 (Prelim) – Forecast 54.2, versus 55.1 previous.
• Canada’s Employment Change for Sep 2025 – Forecast 5K, versus -65.5K previous.
• Canada’s Unemployment Rate for Sep 2025 - Forecast 7.2%, versus 7.1% previous.