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New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence index improved modestly in August, rising to 49.7 from 47.8. However, firms’ Own Activity Outlook slipped to 38.7 from 40.6. Sector pressures also persisted, with reported employment in construction falling sharply.

Inflation indicators eased further. The share of firms expecting to raise prices in the next three months fell to 43%, while cost expectations edged down to 74%. One-year inflation expectations also dipped to 2.63% from 2.68%. Wage growth expectations 12 months out softened to 2.4% from 2.5%.

ANZ said the survey aligns with the RBNZ’s updated view that the economy requires “a little more support” to ward off downside risks. While confidence is stabilizing, the recovery will unfortunately "not come soon enough for some".

Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

The most recent moves in the US Dollar may have mean-reverted in Forex markets, but the same can't be said about precious metals.

They had been subject to some selling pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium but a conjunction of a dovish interpretation of FED Chair Jerome Powell's speech and growing concerns about the Federal Reserve's independance have brought demand back.

A former Board member of the FED (able to vote at every FOMC meeting), Lisa Cook has recently been fired by President Trump "For cause" – She had been appointed by President Biden in 2022 and has been dissenting for rate cuts; but the reasoning has been valid with the growing inflation concerns from tariffs. (PPI just came in at 0.9% vs 0.2% m/m for those who have forgot).

A former FED governor Lael Brainard expressed her fears concerning this attack on the Federal Reserve's Independence.

However, this has helped metals to come back on the front-scene: Since marking lows on the last trading day of July, Silver is up 6% and saw another leg higher after last Friday's speech.

Since, the metal has been consolidating at its relative highs, a sign that usually helps for pursued upside.

Let's take a look at the charts for Silver (XAG) to spot breakout points and key technical levels.

Metals Daily performance

A look at the daily performance in Metals, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum

Metals aren't shining too bright in today's session, however they are holding strong.

Most commonly traded Metals performance in August 2025

Metals comparative performance since the past month, August 2025 – Source: TradingView

Silver Daily and intraday technical analysis

Silver Daily Chart

Silver Daily Chart, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Since our last analysis for Silver which had noted the formation of a head and shoulders formation, bulls have broken its materialization for the current consolidation.

Holding between the $38 to $38.50 Pivot Zone and the 2025 Resistance highs, Markets seem to be waiting for further news before moving XAG further.

In technical analysis, consolidation at relative highs tend to be good signs for further continuation, particularly as Silver is still evolving within a longer-run upward channel.

Do monitor US Dollar strength and rate expectations for fundamentals invalidating these technicals.

Silver 4H Chart

Silver 4H Chart, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Coming back from overbought levels on the 4H timeframe, Silver is rebounding on both the Pivot Zone and key Moving Averages, which may lead to further upside.

Tomorrow's US GDP and Friday's Core PCE will add to volatility quite largely, so keep an eye on these releases.

Breaking the $39 relative highs should confirm further probabilities of new yearly highs being reached – the 2025 highs are at $39.50.

On the other hand, breaching the Key MAs would show more balanced price action ahead.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• Friday Highs $39
• 2025 High resistance between $39 to $39.50
• 2011 resistance $40 to $41

Support Levels:

• Immediate Pivot 38 to $38.5
• 4H MA 50 and 200 $38.15
• 2012 Highs Support around 37.50

Safe Trades!

The dollar index firmed on Wednesday and hit week’s high, showing resilience to the latest political turmoil in the US central bank after President Trump decided to fire Governor Cook.

Fresh gains retested falling 100DMA ($98.60), with firm break here and nearby lower top at $98.71 (Aug 22) needed to confirm positive signal and open way for attack at key barrier at $98.88 (daily cloud top / Fibo 50% retracement of $101.80/$95.97 fall).

Technical picture on daily chart has improved as the price rose above converged 10/20DMA’s, while momentum is strengthening (north-heading RSI rose above neutrality territory and 14-d momentum is rising deeper in the positive territory) that supports bullish outlook.

However, failure to clear 100DMA and cloud top would keep the price within current range ($98.71/ $97.58) and without clear near-term direction.

Investors wait for release of US PCE Index (Fed’s important inflation gauge) due on Friday and US July labor report for August (due next week) to get more details about Fed’s action on monetary policy in September’s policy meeting.

Res: 98.60; 98.88; 99.00; 99.57
Sup: 98.20; 98.05; 97.80; 97.62

CADCHF: ⬆️ Buy

• CADCHF reversed from strong support level 0.5800
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5850

CADCHF currency pair recently reversed up once again from the strong support level 0.5800 (which has been reversing the price from the end of June) standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band.

This is the 3rd consecutive upward reversal from this support level over the last few trading sessions..

Given the strength of the support level 0.5800 and the still oversold daily Stochastic, CADCHF currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.5850 (top of wave ii).

USDCHF: ⬆️ Buy

• USDCHF reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8165

USDCHF currency pair reversed from the support area located between the support level 0.8000, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from July.

The upward reversal from this support area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line.

Given the strength of the support level 0.8000, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.8165 (top of wave 2 from the end of July).

GBPCAD: ⬇️ Sell

• GBPCAD reversed from long-term resistance level 1.8700
• Likely to fall to support level 1.8500.

GBPCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the upper daily Bollinger Band and the strong multi-month resistance level 1.8700 (which has been reversing the price from March).

The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active short-term ABC correction 2.

Given the strength of the nearby resistance level 1.8700 and the bullish Canadian dollar sentiment seen today, GBPCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.8500.

EURCAD: ⬇️ Sell

• EURCAD reversed from resistance zone
• Likely to fall to support level 1.6000

EURCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the upper daily Bollinger Band and the two daily up channels from July and May respectively.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Bearish Engulfing – which stopped the previous wave 3.

Given the strength of the aforementioned resistance zone, EURCAD currency pair recently can be expected to fall to the next round support level 1.6000.

Markets

French yields remained at the center of attention. Since prime minister Bayrou called a budget-related confidence vote for September 8, OATs have underperformed not only vs. Bund & swap but even vs. Italian BTPs. That continued today, be it at a less alarming pace than on Monday. Some French tenors including the 5-year one already trade higher than their Italian counterparts and the gap between the important 10-year references is narrowing to just 5.5 bps, the narrowest since the early days of the monetary union. The OAT-swapspread surpasses 85 bps, which is the highest since March of this year. French equities were offered some relief after a two-day beating. The CAC40 adds 0.6%, beating its European peers (eg. EuroStoxx50 flat). The political instability theme meanwhile appears contagious and is spreading to the Netherlands as well. A motion of no confidence was filed today. But there is no clear procedure in place on how a minority caretaker government has to handle defeat. The four-party coalition government broke down in June after Wilder’s Freedom Party left and crumbled to just two parties with the exit of the New Social Contract party last week. The current coalition only has 32 seats of the 150. Dutch bonds react stoic though. Spreads vs swap hold steady. The US yield curve steepens further with losses of 3 bps at the front complemented by another 3 bps rise at the ultralong end. The 30-year tenor (4.95%) is marching towards the 5% barrier again. It suggests lingering concerns on the topic of Fed (political) independence. The dollar nevertheless has the upper hand against a weak euro. EUR/USD pushes further south, breaking below the 1.16 big figure. Nothing changed from a technical point of view though. The trade-weighted DXY dollar index inches higher to 98.61. UK gilt yields shot up at their first trading day yesterday amid the same fiscal worries that haunt French bonds and were given some reprieve at first today. But an intraday decline at the long end of more than 5 bps got virtually fully wiped out again as the session evolved. Sterling for the time being manages to capitalize on the poor euro momentum, dragging EUR/GBP marginally lower to 0.8625. Some final market moving events today include a $70bn 5-year bond sale as well as tech-heavyweight Nvidia’s earnings, released after-market.

News & Views

In an interview with the Newspaper L’Agefi, the vice governor of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Antoine Martin, indicated that the bar for the SNB to cut interest rates into negative territory is rather high. ‘It should be noted that the requirement level for introducing negative rates is higher than it is for cutting interest rates in positive territory’, the SNB vice governor was quoted. Past experience showed that ‘negative rates have worked, but that they create more challenges for banks, investors and also households, which take more risks. This phenomenon can have long-term negative effects’. The SNB at its June policy meeting reduced its policy rate to 0% from 0.25%. Inflation in July rose from 0.1% Y/Y to 0.2I% Y/Y. In its forecasts the Bank even sees a jump in inflation in the coming quarters. The next regular SNB policy meeting is scheduled for September 25. The SNB vice governor saw recent weakness of the Swiss franc against the dollar mainly as USD weakness rather than franc strength will no dramatic effect on inflation. The franc over the previous day’s gained modest traction also against the euro (political risks in France and debate on Fed independence in the US). EUR/CHF moves to the 0.9355 area. Markets will also keep a close eye at the composition of the SNB balance (diversification USD-euro).

The Confederation of British industry (CBI) today published its June distributive traders report. Retail sales volumes fell at a strong pace in the year to August, extending the downturn to an eleventh consecutive month. CBI analyses that weak demand and gloomy sentiment continue to weigh on retailers’ investment and hiring plans. Price pressures remain elevated. The balance of retail sales volumes in the survey declined to -34 from -32. Sales are expected to decline at slower pace in September (-16). Retail sales for the time of year were judged to be “poor” to a somewhat greater extent than in July (-19 from -10). Next month’s sales are set to remain below seasonal norms to a similar degree (-20%). Sentiment among retailers remained poor, with the business situation expected to deteriorate over the coming quarter. Employment continues to decline and is even expected to decline at a slightly faster pace next month. Retail selling price rose in the year to August at the fastest rate since November 2023 (+65 from +35 in May).

New York Fed President John Williams said in a CNBC interview that interest rates are likely to move lower over time, though he offered no timetable for when easing might begin. He described the U.S. economy as generally strong, albeit slowing modestly, and characterized the labor market as “solid,” echoing language used by other Fed officials.

Williams emphasized that any decision will remain data-driven. “If things move in the way that I hope they do in terms of our maximum employment and price stability goals, then I do think it will be appropriate to move interest rates down over time,” he said. Markets continue to expect the next cut to come at the September meeting.

While avoiding direct comment on US President Donald Trump’s attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Williams noted her integrity and commitment to the central bank’s mission. He stressed that the Fed’s independence is vital for ensuring long-term economic and financial stability.

He used the moment to reaffirm the principle of central bank independence. “Independent central banks can deliver low inflation, economic and financial stability,” Williams said.