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The price of gold reached 3,383 USD per ounce on Wednesday, trading near a two-week high. The rally is being driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets, fuelled by growing concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve.

US President Donald Trump has signalled a potential legal battle following the resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, whom he had accused of misconduct. Her departure has reignited debates about the central bank's autonomy and the issue of political pressure. Cook's exit could accelerate the timing of interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's public calls for a more accommodative monetary policy. Market pricing currently indicates an approximately 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September.

Trade tensions have further contributed to market unease. US authorities stated that a trade agreement with India before a key deadline is unlikely, which could result in tariffs on Indian goods doubling to 50%. Conversely, Indonesia has secured an exemption from tariffs on a range of raw materials. Simultaneously, Trump has threatened to impose severe tariffs on Chinese exports of rare earth metals, significantly escalating tensions between the two economic superpowers.

Political risks are also intensifying in Europe. The French Prime Minister continues to promote an austerity plan ahead of a crucial confidence vote, creating additional political uncertainty in the region.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair on the H4 chart completed an upward wave towards the 3,393 USD level. The focus now shifts to the potential for a decline to the 3,350 USD support level. The market appears to be consolidating within a broad range around this point. A decisive break below this range would open the potential for a further downward wave towards 3,290 USD.

This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero at recent highs but has diverged from the histogram, which suggests weakening momentum and a potential move towards new lows.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has also completed a wave structure up to 3,393 USD, with a corrective wave down to 3,350 USD underway. Upon reaching this level, we anticipate the formation of a tight consolidation range. A subsequent breakout below this range could extend the decline to 3,330 USD, with the broader trend potentially targeting 3,290 USD.

This outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is currently below the 50 level and is pointing sharply downwards towards 20, indicating strengthening downward momentum.

Conclusion

The fundamental landscape, marked by political and trade uncertainties, is bolstering gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Technically, after a period of consolidation, the indicators suggest a heightened potential for a downward move if key support levels are breached.

Gold price climbed again and traded above $3,350. Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $62.80.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase from $3,310 against the US Dollar.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $3,378 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices failed to clear the $65.00 region and started a fresh decline.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $64.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near $3,310. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a strong increase above $3,330.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $3,350. The bulls pushed the price above the $3,365 and $3,378 resistance levels. Finally, the price climbed as high as $3,395 before there was a pullback.

The price tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,321 swing low to the $3,395 high, and the RSI declined below 50. Initial support on the downside is near $3,378 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The first major support is near the 50% Fib retracement at $3,358. If there is a downside break below $3,358, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward $3,350. Any more losses might push the price toward $3,310.

Immediate resistance is near the $3,395 level. The next major hurdle for the bulls is $3,400. An upside break above $3,400 could send Gold price toward $3,420. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $3,450.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to clear the $65.00 level and started a fresh decline below $64.50.

There was a break below a major bullish trend line at $64.00, opening the doors for more losses. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $61.56 swing low to the $64.85 high.

XTI/USD even dipped below $63.50 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls are now active near $63.00. If there is a fresh increase, it could face a barrier near $63.70.

The first major resistance is near $64.10. Any more gains might send the price toward $64.85 and call for a test of $65.50. Conversely, the price might continue to move down and revisit the $62.80 support and the 61.8% Fib retracement.

The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $62.35. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $61.55. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward $60.50.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.18; (P) 198.80; (R1) 199.33; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. While another fall cannot be ruled out, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 195.01 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 2002.6 will resume the whole rise from 184.35 to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 171.27; (P) 171.69; (R1) 172.06; More...

Sideway trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Overall price actions from 173.87 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the downside, below 170.94 support will bring deeper fall to 169.69 and possibly below. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 172.99 will bring retest of 173.87.

In the bigger picture, considering current strong momentum as seen in the rally from 154.77, corrective pattern from 175.41 could have already completed. Decisive break of 154.77 will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, rejection by 175.41, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 170.23) will delay this bullish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8615; (P) 0.8632; (R1) 0.8656; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600 will indicate near term bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8506. On the upside, above 0.8670 will resume the rebound from 0.8595 to retest 0.8752 high.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8508) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7902; (P) 1.7942; (R1) 1.7967; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.8155 short term top should target. r 38.2% retracement of 1.7245 to 1.8155 at 1.7807. That is close to channel support (now at 1.7816), and 55 D EMA (now at 1.7841). Sustained break of this cluster support zone should confirm that whole rise from 1.7245 has completed. Corrective pattern from 1.8554 should then be in its third leg. In this case, bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.7593. On the upside, above 1.7979 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9340; (P) 0.9364; (R1) 0.9376; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays on the downside as fall from 0.9452 is extending. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9366) will argue that the rebound from 0.9128 has completed as a corrective move. Deeper fall would then be seen to 0.9265 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 0.9403 resistance will bring stronger rise to retest 0.9452 instead.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3819; (P) 1.3843; (R1) 1.3865; More...

Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Price actions from 1.3538 are seen as a corrective pattern. As long as 1.3720 support holds, another rise could still be seen. However, upside should be limited by 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017). Meanwhile, firm break of 1.3720 will argue that the corrective bounce has already completed, and bring retest of 1.3538 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6476; (P) 0.6488; (R1) 0.6507; More...

No change in AUD/USD's outlook as corrective pattern from 0.6624 is still extending. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 0.6567 will argue that the correction has completed and bring retest of 0.6624 high. However, break of 0.6413 will extend the correction lower towards 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6624 at 0.6352.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1607; (P) 1.1636; (R1) 1.1670; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. With 1.1582 support intact, further rise is still in favor. On the upside, above 1.1741 will resume the rally from 1.1390 to retest 1.1829 high. Firm break there will extend larger up trend. However, decisive break of 1.1582 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.1829 with another downleg, and target 1.1390.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.