Sample Category Title

UK GDP expanded 0.3% qoq in Q2, beating expectations of a 0.1% gain, though slowing sharply from Q1’s robust 0.7% pace. In output terms, growth was supported by a 0.4% qoq rise in services and a solid 1.2% qoq gain in construction, while the production sector contracted by -0.3% qoq. Real GDP per head grew 0.2% qoq over the quarter, underlining modest but broad-based expansion despite headwinds.

Some of the Q2 slowdown was likely due to front-loading in Q1, with activity pulled forward into February and March ahead of April’s stamp duty changes and US tariffs.

June posted a strong 0.4% mom rebound—double consensus, back-to-back declines in April and May. Within the monthly data, services output climbed 0.3% mom, production rose 0.7% mom, and construction gained 0.3% mom.

Full UK quarterly and monthly GDP releases.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.92; (P) 147.55; (R1) 148.00; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 150.90 resumed by breaking 146.61 support, and head and should top pattern is in place (ls: 149.17, h: 150.90, rs: 148.15). Intraday bias is back on the downside for 145.84 support next. Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 139.87 has completed at 150.90, and turn outlook bearish. Next target is 100% projection of 150.90 to 146.41 from 148.51 at 144.22. On the downside, above 148.51 will bring retest of 150.90 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Market headlines are thin today, with Japan stealing the spotlight as the Nikkei saw a steep pullback following yesterday’s record-setting close. The drop appears driven by traders cashing in on an extended rally rather than any shift in economic outlook. Fundamentally, Japanese equities remain supported, with the economic fallout from US tariffs proving milder than many had feared.

With major trade risks out of the way, Japan’s economy looks increasingly well-positioned to escape its decades-long battle with deflation for good. That structural optimism, however, did not stop short-term traders from locking in gains, leading to a pullback that has triggered a notable rebound in Yen. The Japanese currency is currently the day’s best performer, fueled by a combination of risk position adjustments and the Nikkei retreat.

Aussie is the second strongest performer, supported by solid employment figures released earlier in the day. While the job gain came in just below expectations, the composition of the data—highlighted by a strong rise in full-time employment—points to a labor market that is softening gradually rather than facing a sharp downturn.

One key takeaway from the numbers is that the unemployment rate remains slightly below RBA’s estimated full employment level of 4.3%. This reinforces the view that the central bank is in no rush to accelerate its easing cycle. Instead, policymakers are likely to stick to a measured and gradual approach to further rate cuts.

On the weaker side of the currency spectrum, Sterling is the day’s worst performer, though the move largely reflects a modest pullback after recent strong gains. Traders will look to upcoming UK GDP figures for fresh direction. Euro is the second weakest, followed by D, which will face its next test with today’s PPI data and jobless claims releases. The Swiss Franc and Loonie are trading mixed.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.40%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.26%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.10%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.42%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.03 at 1.551.

Overnight, DOW rose 1.01%. S&P 500 rose 0.32%. NASDAQ rose 0.14%. 10-year yield fell -0.055 to 4.238.

Australia jobs rebound with 24.5k growth in July, unemployment ticks lower

Australia’s labor market showed renewed strength in July, with employment rising by 24.5k, just shy of expectations for a 25.3k gain and a marked improvement from June’s tepid 1k increase. The headline was boosted by a sharp 60.5k jump in full-time positions, which more than offset a -35.9k drop in part-time jobs.

The unemployment rate eased from 4.3% to 4.2%, in line with forecasts, while the participation rate held steady at 67.0%. Signs of underlying resilience were also reflected in a 0.3% mom increase in total hours worked.

The strong full-time hiring points to ongoing momentum in higher-quality job creation, which could temper any immediate RBA shift toward further easing as policymakers weigh domestic strength against global uncertainties.

Fed's Goolsbee says fall FOMC meetings will be “live”

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said overnight that the next few months will bring “live” policy meetings, as the Fed faces one of the hardest tasks in central banking—getting the "timing" right during "moments of transition".

Goolsbee expressed caution over assuming the inflationary impact of tariffs will fade quickly, preferring to wait for upcoming wholesale and consumer price data before deciding on the need for a rate cut.

On jobs, Goolsbee downplayed the signal from recent payroll slowing, suggesting it may reflect reduced immigration rather than a broad cooling. With unemployment at 4.2%, "I think the state of the labor market is pretty strong, pretty solid," he said.

Fed's Bostic urges patience, says tariffs may redefine inflation path

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signaled that the strength of the US labor market gives policymakers breathing room before deciding on rate moves. With unemployment near full employment, he said the Fed can avoid rushing into policy changes. “My predisposition is to try not to do that,” he said, emphasizing the need for more clarity before acting.

Bostic stressed that while inflation remains the primary mandate risk, the job market is in solid shape, and the coming weeks should be spent assessing its underlying health. That evaluation will be key in setting the tone for the Fed’s September meeting, he said.

Turning to tariffs, Bostic noted that Trump’s trade measures differ from past experiences in scope, scale, and intent. Rather than simply raising prices temporarily, he said they could fundamentally alter global supply chains, meaning post-tariff inflation could follow an entirely different trajectory. “It is actually a different economy,” he added.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.92; (P) 147.55; (R1) 148.00; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 150.90 resumed by breaking 146.61 support, and head and should top pattern is in place (ls: 149.17, h: 150.90, rs: 148.15). Intraday bias is back on the downside for 145.84 support next. Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 139.87 has completed at 150.90, and turn outlook bearish. Next target is 100% projection of 150.90 to 146.41 from 148.51 at 144.22. On the downside, above 148.51 will bring retest of 150.90 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

Key Highlights

• WTI Crude Oil prices started a fresh decline below the $65.00 zone.
• A connecting bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $65.00 on the 4-hour chart.
• Gold could attempt a fresh increase if it clears the $3,385 resistance.
• Ethereum price rallies further above the $4,650 and $4,700 levels.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil price struggled above $66.50 against the US Dollar. There was a decline below the $65.50 and $65.00 support levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price settled below the $65.00 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The bears even pushed the price below $63.20.

Finally, the price tested the $62.65 zone and recently started a consolidation phase. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $64.50 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71.18 swing high to the $62.68 low.

The first key resistance sits near the $65.00 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $65.00. The main hurdle is now near the $65.90 zone, above which the price may perhaps accelerate higher.

In the stated case, it could even visit the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) at $66.50. Any more gains might call for a test of $68.00 in the near term.

On the downside, the first major support sits near the $62.65 zone. The next support could be $61.50. A daily close below $61.50 could open the doors for a larger decline. The next major support is $60.00. Any more losses might send oil prices toward $58.00 in the coming days.

Looking at Gold, the bulls are slowly regaining strength and might soon aim for a move above the $3,385 resistance zone.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 224K, versus 217K previous.
• US Producer Price Index for July 2025 (MoM) – Forecast +0.2%, versus 0% previous.
• US Producer Price Index for July 2025 (YoY) – Forecast +2.5%, versus +2.3% previous.

Australia’s labor market showed renewed strength in July, with employment rising by 24.5k, just shy of expectations for a 25.3k gain and a marked improvement from June’s tepid 1k increase. The headline was boosted by a sharp 60.5k jump in full-time positions, which more than offset a -35.9k drop in part-time jobs.

The unemployment rate eased from 4.3% to 4.2%, in line with forecasts, while the participation rate held steady at 67.0%. Signs of underlying resilience were also reflected in a 0.3% mom increase in total hours worked.

The strong full-time hiring points to ongoing momentum in higher-quality job creation, which could temper any immediate RBA shift toward further easing as policymakers weigh domestic strength against global uncertainties.

Full Australia employment release here.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signaled that the strength of the US labor market gives policymakers breathing room before deciding on rate moves. With unemployment near full employment, he said the Fed can avoid rushing into policy changes. “My predisposition is to try not to do that,” he said, emphasizing the need for more clarity before acting.

Bostic stressed that while inflation remains the primary mandate risk, the job market is in solid shape, and the coming weeks should be spent assessing its underlying health. That evaluation will be key in setting the tone for the Fed’s September meeting, he said.

Turning to tariffs, Bostic noted that Trump’s trade measures differ from past experiences in scope, scale, and intent. Rather than simply raising prices temporarily, he said they could fundamentally alter global supply chains, meaning post-tariff inflation could follow an entirely different trajectory. “It is actually a different economy,” he added.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said overnight that the next few months will bring “live” policy meetings, as the Fed faces one of the hardest tasks in central banking—getting the "timing" right during "moments of transition".

Goolsbee expressed caution over assuming the inflationary impact of tariffs will fade quickly, preferring to wait for upcoming wholesale and consumer price data before deciding on the need for a rate cut.

On jobs, Goolsbee downplayed the signal from recent payroll slowing, suggesting it may reflect reduced immigration rather than a broad cooling. With unemployment at 4.2%, "I think the state of the labor market is pretty strong, pretty solid," he said.

The dollar dropped for the second day in a row on Wednesday. This came after U.S. inflation data raised hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, and President Donald Trump's push for lower rates added more pressure on the dollar.

As a result the DXY is now trading at its lowest level since July 28, extending losses of 0.5% recorded after the US CPI report. At some point today markets had pricing at around 100% for a 25 bps rate cut at the September meeting, at the time of writing this is hovering around the 9-% mark.

Source: LSEG

Companies Bearing Costs of Tariffs…For Now

Following the inflation report yesterday, one thing has become clear. Sectors most affected by tariffs didn’t show major issues. Core goods, excluding autos, increased by 0.2% in July after a bigger 0.55% rise in June. This suggests that, for now, companies are mostly handling the extra tariff costs.

This was confirmed by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent today. In Bessent 's own words ‘Chinese exporters are likely to accept lower prices as US importers negotiate over who pays the tariffs. I also think that there are probably a lot of corporate margins that got very fat during Covid, and now we're seeing a return to a normal pre-Covid margin.’

The ISM price data shows there could still be some inflation risk from tariffs. However, yesterday's NFIB survey reveals that small businesses are finding it hard to pass these costs to customers, with fewer firms planning to raise prices in the next three months (down from 32% to 28%). While tariffs may eventually cause prices to rise, at this stage it does not appear like it will lead to long-term inflation pressures.

The concerns around tariffs were largely keeping rate cut expectations in check. Now we are seeing aggressive changes with rate cuts being priced in by market participants which is supporting a weaker US Dollar.

US PPI Data to Further Cement Rate Cut Expectations?

On Thursday, US core PPI inflation is expected to return to 3%, while core CPI inflation was confirmed at 3.1% earlier this week. These inflation rates are likely to increase in the coming months and could easily reach 4%.

Despite the outlook for CORE PPI data, this is unlikely to lead to significant changes on the rate cut expectations front. Markets appear to be more concerned with the state of the US jobs market than inflation at this stage. That is not to say that inflation is not a concern, but as mentioned above any uptick in inflation may likely prove short-lived.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

For now though, with rate cuts being touted by the Trump administration and the political narrative for such a move growing, the US Dollar outlook does not look positive. Markets are already concerned about the Fed independence, coupled with the significant job data downgrades, integrity of the data moving forward will also play a role.

Technical Analysis - US Dollar Index (DXY)

The US Dollar index however, is showing some mixed signals of late despite growing signs that fundamental factors are likely to remain bearish moving forward.

As things stand, the bullish move which began from July 1 low at 96.37 remains intact.

The DXY is currently testing a trendline which began from the July 1 low lows, with a higher low printed on July 24 now holding the key.

I have drawn in an ascending trendline which is currently being tested with a break below this and a daily candle close below the higher low at 97.10 likely leading to further declines for the DXY.

If the trendline holds then the longer term descending trendline may come back into play before the previous swing high at 100.25 comes back into focus.

Either way, this current test of the trendline and the higher low from July 24 could be a make or break moment for the US Dollar in the short to medium-term.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, August 13, 2025

Source:TradingView.com

S&P 500: ⬆️ Buy

• S&P 500 broke key resistance level 6435.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 6600.00

S&P 500 index recently broke above the key resistance level 6435.00, which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (3) in July.

The breakout of the resistance level 6435.00 continues the active intermediate impulse wave (5) from the start of August.

Given the overriding daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6600.00, coinciding with the daily up channel from May.