CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Short of USD Index Futures Shrank as the Greenback Recovered to One-Week High
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 1, NET SHORT for USD Index futures dropped - 1 027 to 6 746 contracts. Speculative long positions added +766 contracts and short positions slipped -261 contracts. NET SHORT could shrink further in the coming...
Dollar Down Trend, Stocks Up Trend Still Intact after Roller-Coaster Ride
Markets experienced a roller-coaster ride in the first week of September. S&P 500 and NASDAQ extended record runs and it looked like DOW was on the way for a catch-up. Then technology stocks led a steep selloff towards the end of the week and pulled all indices sharply lower....
Dollar Rises after NFP, Gold Breaks Trend Line Support
Dollar rises against European majors an Yen as headline non-farm payrolls number came in not far from expectation. Encouragingly, unemployment rate dropped notably while participation rate also rose. Wage growth also some what picked up. DOW future also point to a mildly higher open. The greenback is set to...
Dollar to End Week as Strongest, Subject to NFP Reactions
Asian markets are generally in red following the steep corrective selloff in the US overnight. The forex markets are relatively steady though, with Dollar and Yen trading with a firm tone. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are the weakest ones, followed by Sterling. Over the week, Dollar is set...
ECB Preview – Warning about Euro Strength with No Action Needed
ECB is expected to maintain the monetary policy measures in September. The focuses on the meeting include policymakers’ response to the recent strength in euro, the updated economic projections and ECB’s strategy review after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s announcement at the Jackson Hole symposium. While euro’s appreciation over the...
Dollar Supported as Jobless Claims Dropped to 881k, Swiss Franc Rebounds
Dollar's rebound continues in early US session as positive response to better than expected jobless claims data. For the moment, Swiss Franc is the second strongest, followed by Euro, and both surges against the weak Sterling. Commodity currencies follow as the next weakest, as gold and oil soften. Yen...
Dollar Firm as Rebound Continues, Yen Following
Dollar stays firm as recovery continues while Yen is following as the second strongest. While US stocks continued their record run overnight, Asian markets are generally in red outside of Japan. As for today, Euro is currently the worst performing, followed by Sterling, and then Australian Dollar. Focuses will...
WTI-Brent Crude Spread Widened Markedly on US Demand Concerns, Offsetting Inventory Draw
Crude oil prices plunged more than -2% on profit-taking. The front-month WTI contract settled at US$41.51/bbl, lowest since August 7. The front-month Brent contract fell to US$44.43/bbl, lowest since August 21, at close. WTI-Brent spread widened to US$ 2.92/bbl. The correction came in despite sharp draw in US inventory....
Dollar Extending Corrective Recovery, ADP Job Disappointment Ignored
Dollar remains generally firm into US session as corrective recovery continues. Much weaker than expected ADP job data is ignored by traders. US stocks are also set to open higher with S&P 500 and NASDAQ extending the record runs. Australian Dollar is currently the weakest one, extending its correction...
Aussie Down on GDP Contraction, Dollar Recovers ahead of More Data
Australian Dollar tumbles broadly today and it's trading as the weakest one so far. The decline partly follows worse than expected Q2 GDP data, and partly as profit taking on recent strong rise. Selloff against New Zealand Dollar the latter to be the strongest one. On the other hand,...
Sharp Rise in Manufacturing PMI Signals that PBOC will Keep the Powder Dry for the Month
China's manufacturing PMI (by Caixin) rose to almost a decade high of 53.1 August, from 52.8 a month ago. This indicates that China’s manufacturing activities have been expanding over the past 4 months and the rebound has accelerated. The accompanying report noted that output and new orders showed biggest...
Sterling Surges With Euro, Swiss Franc Tumbles, Dollar Mixed
Sterling overtakes Euro as the strongest currency for today, as cross buying against the latter resumes after brief consolidation. However, Swiss Franc is clearly left behind and it's trading as the worst performing one. Rallies in Gold and Silver are a factor pressuring the safe haven Franc. Yen is...
RBA Delivered a Mildly Dovish Tone as it Extended TFF and Hinted Further Easing
As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate and the 3-year bond yield target unchanged at record of 0.25% at today's meeting. Yet, the decision to expand the size of Term Funding Facility (TFF) and the tone in the accompanying statement have suggested a mildly dovish shift to the...
Euro Upside Breakout, Aussie Shrugs RBA
Euro trades broadly higher in Asian session as it finally takes out near term resistance against Dollar and Yen. Swiss Franc is following the common currency closely as second strongest. Gold is also tracking the Euro higher too. Dollar and Yen continue to stay under broad based pressure. The...
Yen Softens Further on Yields, Euro to Test Resistance Levels
Yen is trading with an undertone today despite mixed risk markets. Treasury yield is a factor weighing on Yen again, with US 10-year yield staying firm around 0.73 handle. Germany 10-year is also back above -0.4% handle. US stocks open slightly lower, following mild weakness in Europe, but that's...
Yen Softens as Nikkei Rebound, Busy Week Ahead
Yen softens mildly in quiet Asian session, accompanied by the rebound in Nikkei, as markets digest Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation. Dollar is also paring some of last week's steep losses. But overall, major pairs a crosses are bounded in very tight range. Economic data from Japan and China...
Dollar Dived on New Fed Strategy, Aussie Shone ahead of a Key Week
Dollar tumbled sharply, and broadly last week as markets perceive Fed's adoption of average inflation targeting as a dovish move. Nevertheless, selloff were mainly against commodity currencies and, to a lesser extent, Sterling. The greenback ended in range against Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold. Even Gold just gyrated inside...
RBA Preview – Keeping Expansionary Policy Stance with Focus on 3-Year Yield
We expect RBA would leave the monetary policy unchanged in September. Since March, RBA has been adopting a number of measures to lower the borrowing costs and provide liquidity to the market. These include keeping the cash rate at record low of 0.25%, targeting 3- year government bond yield...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH in Crude Oil and Gold Fell, while that in Natural Gas Climbed Higher
All commodity futures under our coverage were in net speculative long positions last week. NET LENGTH in natural gas futures rose the most as hurricane Laura had raised concerns about supply, outweighing demand worries. NET LENGTH in crude oil futures declined, although price slowly climbed higher. Gold's NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – More Downside on USD following Fed’s Dovish Policy Outlook
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 25, NET SHORT for USD Index futures added +258 to 7 773 contracts. Speculative long positions declined -5 005 contracts and short positions fell -4 747 contracts. There can be more downside to greenback. Fed...