CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Continued to Bet Higher Loonie as Driven by Crude Oil’s Rally
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 1, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +183 contracts to 2 963. Speculative long positions rose +2 724 contracts while shorts increased +2541 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures gained +5...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length Increased for GBP as It Consolidated at 3-Year High against USD
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 25, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +96 contracts to 2 780. Speculative long positions added +350 contracts while shorts increased +254 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures gained +4 142...
Positive Correlation between US stocks and bonds Reveal Rising Concerns over Inflation
Correlation between US stocks and bonds has turned positive and continued to rise. The phenomenon, not seen since September 2020, probably reveals increasing risk aversion, driven by rising inflation expectations. The correlation could return to negative, thus facilitating asset diversification, if inflation proves transitory and central banks could maintain...
Strong Euro Supported by Firm Data, Rising Inflation Expectations and Tapering Hopes
Following a weak first quarter, the strength in EURUSD has gathered momentum. The pair is the second strongest among majors quarter-to-date. A more upbeat economic outlook, heightened inflation forecasts and expectations of ECB’s tapering are key driving forces of the recent rally.
Indicators Pointing to Stronger 2Q21
Leading indicators have pointed...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Strength Lacks Momentum
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 18, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +261 contracts to 2 684. Speculative long positions added +27 contracts while shorts dropped -234 contracts. Bets on both sides were limited as traders awaited FOMC minutes....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher CAD Increased Markedly
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 11, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +368 contracts to 2 423. Speculative long positions gained +5 095 contracts while shorts were up +4 727 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
Rate and Crude Oil Price to Support CAD Outlook
Year-to-date, Canadian dollar is the best performing currency against US dollar. Indeed, most of the gains has been accumulated after the April BOC meeting, at which policymakers announced QE tapering and hinted about rate hike in as soon as next year. Despite recent disappointment in macroeconomic data, we expect...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on USD Index Futures
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 4, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -691 contracts to 2 055. Speculative long positions dropped -1 836 contracts while shorts were down -1 145 contracts. Net longs could trim further in the coming...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on US Dollar
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 27, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -772 contracts to 2 746. Speculative long positions slipped -855 contracts while shorts were down -83 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures added +159...
US Growth and Fed’s Policy Outlook to Lift Yields Again, Lending Support to USD
Weakness of US dollar in most of April has been mainly driven by falling Treasury yields. We believe US’ strong economic growth in coming quarters, market expectations of Fed funds rate hike and the Fed’s plan to taper QE would again lift Treasury yields, lending support to the greenback....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length of CAD Futures Jumped Over 6 Times on Hawkish BOC
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 20, NET LENGTH for CAD futures soared +10 840 contracts to 13 246 contracts, compared with 2 406 contracts a week ago. Speculative longs increased while shorts dropped during the week. A hawkish BOC is...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Long of Commodity Currencies Fell Across the Board
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 13, NET LENGTH of USD index futures gained +1 504 contracts to 5 953. Speculative long positions dropped -1 027 contracts while shorts fell -2 531 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Long Trimmed on All Majors
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 6, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -1 277 contracts to 4 449. Speculative long positions declined -2 807 contracts while shorts fell -1 530 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Lower Euro Soared on Rising US Yields and Renewed Lockdowns
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 30, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +343 contracts to 5 726. Speculative long positions gained +2 667 contracts while shorts added +2 324 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures slumped...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length for Commodity Currencies Declined
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 23, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -454 contracts to 5 383. Speculative long positions gained +1 271 contracts while shorts added +1 725 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures rose...
BOJ’s Yield Curve Control Helps Prevent JPY Appreciation, but Not Effective in Boosting Inflation
In its minor tweak on the yield curve control operation, the BOJ has widened the trading band of 10-year JGB yield by +/- 25 bps (+/- 20 bps previously). The central bank introduced YCC in September 2016, in addition to keeping the policy rate at -0.1% and the QE...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Risk Currencies Trimmed
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 16, USD drifted to NET LENGTH of 14 724 contracts to 5 837. Speculative long positions gained +2 816 contracts while shorts slumped -11 908 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures sank...
CFTC Commitments of Traders -Net Short of USD Index Futures Fell as Rising Yields Lent Support
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 9, NET SHORT of USD Index futures fell -1 216 contracts to 8 887. Speculative long positions gained +2 992 contracts while shorts were up 1 776 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risky Currencies Pulled Back on Profit-Taking
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 23, NET SHORT of USD Index futures dropped -436 contracts to 13 851. Speculative long positions added +1 750 contracts while shorts were up 1 314 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Net Short Gained Slightly as Risk Appetite Improved
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 16, NET SHORT of USD Index futures dropped -412 contracts to 14 287. Speculative long positions slipped -97 contracts while shorts were up +315 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures dropped -216...