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Ethereum and Bitcoin extending triangle consolidation, not the time for downside breakout yet

    By
    ActionForex
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    Ethereum is struggling in tight range above 2500 in quiet Asian session. It’s staying in the consolidation pattern from 2157, probably in form of a triangle. That is another rising leg could be seen as before the consolidation completes. But judging from current price actions, upside should be limited by 55 day EMA (now at 2852).

    The whole down trend from 4863 is expected resume later. Break of 2293 support will be the first sign of downtrend resumption. Further break of 2157 low will pave the way through 2000 to 1715 support next.

    Bitcoin carries the same picture. It’s trading in range around 38000 for now. Overall, it’s seen as extending the triangle consolidation pattern from 33000. Such pattern should complete after another rising leg. Break of 34264 will be the first sign of resumption of down trend from 68986. Further break of 33000 will target 29261 support next.

    Hong Kong HSI extends free fall on geo-politics, lockdown, and regulatory crackdown

      By
      ActionForex
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      Stocks in Hong Kong and China are in selloff mode again today while other parts of Asia are mixed. A batch of factors are weighing on sentiments. The Financial Times and Washington Post reported on Sunday that Russia has asked China for help on military equipment for its invasion of Ukraine. But the spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington said he’s “never heard of that”.

      Separately, fresh lockdown was announced in China’s key technology hub in Shenzhen. Last week, the US SEC named its first batch of Chinese stocks as part of a crackdown on foreign firms that refuse to open their books to U.S. regulators. Didi Global suspended its listing in HK after failing to appease the Chinese government’s regulatory demands.

      At the time of writing, Hong Kong HSI is down -3.81%, or -782.32 pts for the day, breaking through 20k psychological level. Near term outlook will stay bearish as long as the bottom of the gap last week holds, at 21321.79. However, downside might be “relatively limited” as it will enter into a long term support zone between 18278.80 (2016 low), and lower channel support. Also, both daily and weekly RSI are clearly in deep oversold region.

      Canada employment grew massive 337, unemployment rate close to record low

        By
        ActionForex
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        Canada added a massive 337k jobs in February, well above expectation of 123k. Full time jobs grew 122k while parti time jobs rose 215k. Goods-producing jobs rose 44k and producing jobs rose 293k.

        Unemployment rate dropped sharply from 6.5% to 5.5%, better than expectation of 6.2%. The level was now below pre-pandemic rate at 5.7% in February 2020, and similar to record lower of 5.4% back in May 2019.

        Total hours worked also rose 3.6%, exceeding pre-pandemic level for the first time. Employment rate rose 1% to 61.8%. Labor force participation rate rose 0.4% to 65.4%.

        Full release here.

        ECB Villeroy: Interest rate rise would be very graudal

          By
          ActionForex
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          ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau reiterated to BFM business radio, “we have said that if the rise in interest rates were to start, it would be very gradual. We have decided to lift our foot off the accelerator … but there is not the automaticity we seen in other central banks.”

          Villeroy also dismissed the idea that rising commodity prices could drag Eurozone into recession. He said, “growth remain positive, there is no recession.” Meanwhile, he expected inflation to “get back down to around 2%” from from the current 5.1% level.

          Another Governing Council member Olli Rehn echoed, “any adjustments to the key ECB interest rates will take place some time after the end of the APP net purchases and will be gradual.”

          UK GDP grew 0.8% mom in Jan, all sectors were up

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            UK GDP grew 0.8% mom in January, well above expectation of 0.2% mom. All sectors grew in the month, with services up 0.8% mom, production up 0.7% mom, and construction up 1.1% mom.

            GDP is now 0.8% above pre-conronavirus level in February 2020. Services is 1.3% above the pre-coronavirus level, construction 1.4% above. But production remains -2.0% below the level.

            Also released, industrial production rose 0.7% mom, 2.3% yoy in January, versus expectation of 0.3% mom, 1.9% yoy. Manufacturing production rose 0.8% mom, 3.6% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 3.1% yoy. Goods trade deficit widened to GBP -26.5B, versus expectation of GBP -12.6B.

            Full UK GDP release here.

            New Zealand BNZ manufacturing rose to 53.6, next result may see fallout from Russia/Ukraine conflict

              By
              ActionForex
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              New Zealand BNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose from 52.3 to 53.6 in February. Looking at some details, Production rose from 51.1 to 52.1. Employment rose from 49.5 to 51.7. New Orders rose from 53.6 to 58.2. Finished stocks dropped from 52.5 to 50.0. Deliveries dropped from 54.0 to 53.5.

              BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert stated that “underlying unease will certainly be piqued by the sustained high COVID case numbers as we go into March.  The next PMI result may also see fallout from the Russia/Ukraine conflict, whose global impacts will be felt far and wide.”

              Full release here.

              RBA Lowe: It’s prudent to plan for an interest rate increase

                By
                ActionForex
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                RBA Governor Philip Lowe said it’s “plausible” for interest to be lifted from the current 0.1% this year. “It would be prudent to plan for an increase,” he added. “For many borrowers that’s going to come as quite an unwelcome development, although I know from the letters that I get every day when I turn up at work that many depositors have a different view,”

                Meanwhile, he said “I don’t feel mounting pressure,” on raising rates. “We do what we think is the right thing at each of our meetings, so the pressure, it’s great for media stories, but I don’t feel that myself.”

                IMF Georgieva: Global growth forecast to be downgraded, but remains in positive territory

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC yesterday, “we think that we would be downgrading our growth projections as a result of the crisis (in Ukraine), but we still expect the world to be in positive growth territory.”

                  In the January outlook IMF projected global growth of 4.4% in 2022. For now, it’s unsure how the global economy would be affected by Russia invasion on Ukraine. “Obviously, how long this war goes is the main uncertainty factor we face,” Georgieva said.

                  Separately, Georgieva also said, sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine would cause an abrupt contraction of the Russian economy. Russia is facing a “deep recession” this year, and sovereign debt default is no longer seen as “improbable”.

                  ECB upgrade inflation forecasts significantly, downgrades GDP forecasts

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    ECB President Christine Lagarde said in the post meeting press conference, inflation has “continued to surprise on the upside because of unexpectedly high energy costs.”, and prices rises became “more broadly based”. GDP growth was revised down for the near term, owing to the war in Ukraine.

                    Inflation projections were revised up “significantly” to 5.1% in 2022 (up from 2.6%), 2.1% in 2023 (up form 1.8%), and 1.9% in 2024 (up from 1.8%).

                    Excluding food and energy, inflation is projected to average 2.6% in 2022 (up from 1.9%), 1.8% in 2023 (up from 1.7%), and 1.9% in 2024 (up from 1.8%).

                    The economy is projected to grow 3.7% in 2022 (down from 4.2%), 2.8% in 2023 (down from 2.9%), and 1.6% in 2024 (unchanged).

                    Lagarde also said, “the Russia-Ukraine war will have a material impact on economic activity and inflation through higher energy and commodity prices, the disruption of international commerce and weaker confidence. The extent of these effects will depend on how the conflict evolves, on the impact of current sanctions and on possible further measures.”

                    Full introductory statement here.

                    US initial jobless claims rose to 227k, above expectations

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      US initial jobless claims rose 11k to 227k in the week ending March 5, above expectation of 205k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 500 to 231k.

                      Continuing claims rose 25k to 1494k in the week ending February 26. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -31k to 157k, lowest since March 28, 1970.

                      Full release here.

                      US CPI rose to 7.9% yoy in Feb, highest since 1982

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        US CPI rose 0.8% mom in February, matched expectations. Over the 12-month period, CPI accelerated from 7.5% yoy to 7.9% yoy, matched expectations. The 12-month increase is the largest since January 1982.

                        CPI core rose 0.5% mom. For the 12-month period, CPI core accelerated from 6.0% yoy to 6.4% yoy, matched expectations. The 12-month increase was the highest since August 1982.

                        Energy index rose 25.6% yoy. Food index rose 7.9% yoy, highest since July 1981.

                        Full release here.

                        ECB sets faster APP purchase wind-down schedule

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          ECB left interest rate unchanged as widely expected. Main refinancing, marginal lending facility and deposit rate are held at 0.00%, 0.25%, and -0.50% respectively. ECB added that “Any adjustments to the key ECB interest rates will take place some time after the end of the Governing Council’s net purchases under the APP and will be gradual.”

                          The pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) will stop net purchases as planned at the end of March. The purchase schedule for the regular asset purchase program (APP) is revised, with monthly net purchase at EUR 40B in April, EUR 30B in May and EUR 20B in June.

                          ECB added that the calibration for APP net purchases in Q3 will be ” data-dependent and reflect its evolving assessment of the outlook”. If medium term inflation outlook “will not weaken after the end of the net purchases, ECB will conclude net APP purchases in Q3. Also, ECB leaves it open to revise the schedule, size and duration of the purchases.

                          Full statement here.

                          Some previews on ECB, a look at EUR/CHF

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            A tremendous amount of uncertainty was added to ECB outlook from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There were expectations that ECB could announce an earlier end to its asset purchase program at today’s meeting, paving the way for a rate hike later this year. But now, it’s more likely for the central bank to keep options open for the moment.

                            Nevertheless, facing increasing risk of prolonged high inflation, hawks in the councils could push for at least a move to a “neutral” guidance. That could come in form of dropping the reference to a rate cut in the guidance. ECB might also remove the stipulation that rate hike would come “shortly” after end of net asset purchases.

                            The new economic projections would also be scrutinized while President Christine Lagarde would be asked for her views on risk of stagflation in Eurozone.

                            Here are some previews for today’s ECB meeting:

                            Euro is staging a strong rebound since yesterday, while gold and oil prices are in deep retreat. The situation came as markets are exiting the phase of initial shock of Russia invasion. But clearly, the clouds are still there. Today’s ECB announce might give Euro some temporary volatility, but the next move will still very much depend on the development in Ukraine.

                            Technically, for EUR/CHF, 0.9970 is theoretically a good place to bottom. It’s not unreasonable to say that the down trend from 1.1149 has ended as a five-wave move, just hitting, 100% projection of 1.0936 to 1.0298 from 1.0610 at 0.9972. Parity can also provide additional psychological support. Yet, firm break of 1.0298 support turned resistance is still needed to be the first sign of major bottoming. Otherwise, risk will remain heavily on the downside.

                            Japan PPI rose record 9.3% yoy in Feb, led by energy and commodities

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              Japan corporate goods price index rose 9.3% yoy in February, above expectation of 8.7% yoy. At 110.7, the index hit the highest level marked since 1985. That’s also the highest rise on record, as led by skyrocketing energy prices. Coal and petroleum prices jumped 34.2% yoy. Electricity, city gas and water prices also surged 27.5% yoy.

                              Commodity prices also surged with iron and steel up 24.5% yoy. Nonferrous metal rose 24.9% yoy. Lumber and wood products rose 58.0% yoy.

                              Import prices rose 34.0% yoy while export prices rose 12.7% yoy.

                              Bitcoin extending triangle consolidation, back at 42k

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Bitcoin is back at 42k handle over risk sentiment improves. Currently, price action from 33000 are seen as developing into a corrective pattern, probably in form of a triangle. Thus, upside of the current rebound should be limited by 45313 resistance. Eventually, larger decline from 68986 is still expected to resume through 33000 at a later stage. Nevertheless, firm break of 45313 will dampen this view and argue that the trend might be reversing.

                                Gold back pressing 2k as rally lost momentum ahead of record high

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  Gold dips notably today, after failing to break through 2074.84 record high earlier. With the depth of the retreat, more corrective trading is now likely for the near term. While gold cold gyrate below 2000 handle, downside should be contained by 1960.83 support to bring another rally. Decisive break of 2074.84 will pave to way to next medium term target at 61.8% projection of 1160.17 to 2074.84 from 1682.60 at 2247.86.

                                  However, break of 1960.83 support will delay the bullish case. Gold could then be in correction to rise from 1682.60 (the preferred case), or it’s starting a third leg of the corrective pattern from 2074.84 (less preferred case). But both ways, Gold could have a test on 1877.80 support before setting on the next move.

                                  China PPI slowed to 8.8% yoy in Feb, CPI unchanged at 0.9% yoy

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    China PPI slowed from 9.1% yoy to 8.8% yoy in February, above expectation of 0.8% yoy. Senior National Bureau of Statistics statistician Dong Lijuan said, PPI was “affected by the increased commodity prices globally such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals”.

                                    CPI was unchanged at 0.9% yoy, above expectation of 0.8% yoy. affected by the Chinese New Year holiday and the fluctuation of international energy prices, CPI saw a bigger month on month increase,” added Dong after CPI rose by 0.6 per cent month on month.

                                    Australia Westpac consumer sentiment dropped to 96.6 in Mar, worst since Sep 2020

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      Australia Westpac consumer sentiment index dropped -4.2% to 96.6 in March, down from 100.8. That’s the worst reading since September 2020, which was also the last time thee index was below the 100-level.

                                      Westpac said: “The latest monthly fall comes as no surprise. The war in Ukraine; the floods in south- east Queensland and Northern NSW; ongoing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates were all likely to impact confidence, although the size of the decline is still notable.”

                                      Westpac maintained the view that the first RBA rate hike in the tightening cycle will start on August 2, following two more inflations reports of Q1 and Q2.

                                      Full release here.

                                      RBA Lowe: A rate hike this year is plausible

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated in a speech that Australia has the “scope to wait and assess incoming information” before working on interest rates.

                                        He highlighted two issues that policymakers are “paying close attention to”. The first is the “persistence of supply-side price shocks” and the extent of impact from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, that’s “how labor costs in Australia evolve”.

                                        He noted that “given the outlook, though, it is plausible that the cash rate will be increased later this year.” There is both a risk to “waiting too long” and “moving too early”. But Low finished with the point that “it is only possible to achieve a sustained period of low unemployment if inflation remains low and stable”. And, “recent developments in Europe have added to the complexities here.”

                                        Full speech here.

                                        Fitch downgrades Russia rating to C, sovereign default is imminent

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Fitch Ratings has downgraded Russia’s Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘C’ from ‘B’. The ‘C’ rating reflects Fitch’s view that a sovereign default is imminent.

                                          The rating agency said developments since March 2, the last downgrade to “B”, “further undermined Russia’s willingness to service government debt.”

                                          It added, “the further ratcheting up of sanctions, and proposals that could limit trade in energy, increase the probability of a policy response by Russia that includes at least selective non-payment of its sovereign debt obligations.

                                          Full release here.

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