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The UK services sector returned to modest growth in May, with PMI Services finalized at 50.9, rebounding from April’s 27-month low of 49.0. Composite PMI also edged into expansion at 50.3, up from 48.5.

Tim Moore of S&P Global highlighted that easing fears over US tariffs, firmer global markets, and renewed client confidence underpinned the service sector’s recovery. Business sentiment for the year ahead climbed to a seven-month high, driven by investment plans and improved sales expectations.

However, the underlying job market remains soft. The eight-month stretch of declining employment in the sector now marks the longest non-pandemic downturn since the global financial crisis.

But encouragingly, input cost inflation eased from April’s peak, while competitive pricing pressures led to the slowest increase in service charges since October.

Full UK PMI services final release here.

Eurozone’s services sector contracted modestly in May, with the final PMI Services reading falling to 49.7, down from April’s 50.1, marking a six-month low. This decline pulled the Composite PMI down to 50.2, indicating only marginal overall growth in private sector activity.

The divergence in national performance was notable: Italy led with a 13-month high of 52.5, while Germany and France both remained in contraction, with Germany posting a five-month low of 48.5 and France improving to a nine-month high of 49.3.

Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, expressed confidence that expected ECB rate cuts and anticipated fiscal support from Germany would help cushion the impact of rising tariffs and growing uncertainty.

However, inflation signals from the PMI survey were mixed. Services sector sales price growth moderated again, which may reassure the ECB on the disinflation front. Still, cost pressures picked up slightly, which could complicate the ECB’s job over the longer term. Nevertheless, with goods prices easing more quickly and overall inflation slipping below target.

Full Eurozone PMI services final release here.

EUR/USD started a downside correction from the 1.1450 resistance. USD/CHF is rising and might aim for a move towards the 0.8250 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

The Euro struggled to clear the 1.1450 resistance and declined against the US Dollar.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1395 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.

USD/CHF is showing positive signs above the 0.8200 resistance zone.

There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 0.8180 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair gained pace for a move above the 1.1300 zone, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro tested the 1.1450 resistance and recently corrected gains against the US Dollar.

The pair dipped below 1.1400. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1395. It even traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1209 swing low to the 1.1454 high.

The pair is showing some bearish signs, and upside potential might remain limited. Immediate resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.1395.

The next major resistance is near the 1.1450 zone. An upside break above the 1.1450 level might send the pair toward the 1.1500 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1550 level.

On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1209 swing low to the 1.1454 high at 1.1330. The next major support is near the 1.1300 level. A downside break below the 1.1300 support could send the pair toward the 1.1210 level.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair declined heavily below the 0.8250 level before the bulls appeared. The US Dollar tested 0.8160 and recently started a fresh increase against the Swiss Franc.

The pair climbed above the 0.8200 resistance zone. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8337 swing high to the 0.8157 low. Besides, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 0.8180.

The bulls are now facing resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8337 swing high to the 0.8157 low at 0.8250. The next major resistance is 0.8295.

The main resistance is near 0.8335. If there is a clear break above 0.8335 and the RSI remains above 50, the pair could start another increase. In the stated case, it could test 0.8420.

If there is another decline, the pair might test the 0.8200 support. The first major support on the USD/CHF chart is near the 0.8160 zone. A downside break below 0.8160 might spark bearish moves. The next major support is near the 0.8120 pivot level. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a move towards the 0.8050 level in the near term.

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As the chart shows, the USD/CAD exchange rate hit its lowest level of 2025 on 2nd June, nearing the 1.3680 mark. Although there was a partial recovery on 3rd June, it was not substantial.

These fluctuations reflect market participants’ cautious sentiment ahead of key announcements scheduled for today, 4th June:

→ At 15:15 (GMT+3), the ADP Employment Change figures will be released, offering insight into the US employment situation. Traders are concerned as the previous reading was only +61K — a sharp contrast to the consistent triple-digit increases seen throughout 2024.

→ At 16:45 (GMT+3), the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision. According to ForexFactory, analysts expect the overnight rate to remain unchanged at 2.75%, though surprises cannot be ruled out.

Technical Analysis of USD/CAD

Since the second half of April, the price has been moving within a downward channel (marked in red), largely influenced by tariff-related developments in US-Canada trade relations.

Bulls are attempting to prevent further decline, taking advantage of the support provided by the channel’s lower boundary. Note the sharp rebound following a failed bearish breakout (marked with an arrow), which suggests strong demand around the 1.3700 level.

On the other hand, bears have gained control over the 1.3800 level, based on the following:

→ The exchange rate found local support at this level on 29th May, but it was breached on 30th May.

→ The drop from 30th May was notably aggressive, indicating strong selling pressure.

Given the above, it is reasonable to assume that if, following today’s news, the USD/CAD rate remains within the 1.3700–1.3800 range, it may signal that supply and demand have reached a stable balance. This could suggest that the pair is ready to stabilise after the intense volatility seen in the first half of April.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Yesterday, the price of Brent crude climbed above $65.60 — the highest level in over a week.

According to media reports, several bullish factors are driving this move:

→ Stalled negotiations between the US and Iran over abandoning Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting oil export sanctions;

→ Wildfires in Canada, which have significantly reduced oil output;

→ Market reaction to the OPEC+ meeting held over the weekend;
→ A weakening US dollar.

Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart

From a technical standpoint, Brent crude oil:

→ Has been forming a short-term ascending channel (marked in blue) since the beginning of the week;

→ Has approached a major resistance level.

This resistance is defined by the upper boundary of a narrowing triangle, with its central axis around the $63.70 level — a price that could be considered a fair value based on trading over the past one and a half months.

This situation points to two possible scenarios:

→ A downward reversal from the key resistance, with expectations that the price will return to the triangle’s central axis. A break below the lower boundary of the local blue channel would support this scenario.

→ An attempt at a bullish breakout of the triangle. While this scenario cannot be ruled out, it appears less likely due to the global economic slowdown risks posed by tariff-related trade barriers.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.34; (P) 194.06; (R1) 195.39; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor as long as 191.86 support holds. Firm break of 196.38 will resume whole rally from 184.35. However, firm break of 191.86 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.07; (P) 163.47; (R1) 164.15; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment, as sideway trading continues. On the upside, above 164.24 will bring retest of 165.19 resistance first. Firm break there will resume while rise from 154.77 to 166.67 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 161.06 will resume the decline from 165.19 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8397; (P) 0.8424; (R1) 0.8438; More...

EUR/GBP retreated ahead of 0.8458 resistance and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, above 0.8448 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8500. On the downside, however, break of 0.8401 minor support will bring retest of 0.8354 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern. There is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7551; (P) 1.7629; (R1) 1.7674; More...

EUR/AUD's rebound from 1.7245 lost momentum as seen in 4H MACD, and intraday bias is turned neutral. On the upside, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.7745 will solidify the case that fall from 1.8554 has completed as a correction. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 1.8054. On the downside, however, break of 1.7460 support will bring retest of 1.7245 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) should still be in progress. Break of 1.8554 is expected after the whole corrective pattern from there completes. However, sustained break of 1.7062 will bring deeper fall back to 1.5963 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9343; (P) 0.9362; (R1) 0.9392; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as range trading continues. Rise from 0.9218 might continue, either as a correction to fall from 0.9660, or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. On the upside, above 0.9419 will target 0.9445 resistance and above. Nevertheless, on the downside, firm break of 0.9291 will bring retest of 0.9218 low.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9527) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.