Weekly Report
CAD, JPY and USD Ended as the Strongest in a Week of Trade Talk and Surging Yields
EU-US trade talk and surge in yields in Japan and the US were the two major themes last week. But it was Canadian Dollar which quietly ended as the strongest one last week. US holding off car tariffs is definitely a positive for Canada and could clear the way...
How Did Stocks, Bonds and Dollar React to Trump’s Attack on Fed?
Dollar was sold off sharply on Friday but, after all, it ended the week only as the third weakest. Sterling was the worst performing one after triple data disappointment, most notably CPI. The once done-deal BoE August rate hike is now back on the table. Australia Dollar ended as...
Dollar Not Ready to Resume Up Trend Yet, Risk Appetite to Continue
Yen and Swiss Franc ended as the weakest ones last week as global stock markets ended higher. There were some jitters in risk sentiments after US announced to move on with tariffs on additional USD 200B in China imports, which come effective as soon as in September. But investors...
US, European and Asian Markets Reacted Differently to Start of US-China Trade War
The global markets reacted rather differently as the US-China trade war formally started while there were only signs of further escalations. Over the week, NASDAQ was a star performer and rose 2.37% to 7510.30. S&P 500 rose in tandem by 1.52% to 2759.82. DOW lagged behind but also managed...
Dollar Rally Halts after a Solid Quarter, Stays Bullish on Trade Tensions
Canadian Dollar ended last week as the strongest one. Strength in oil price, with WTI hitting four-year high was a factor. Solid Canadian GDP and Business Outlook Survey also support a July BoC hike. Euro followed as the second strongest as markets cheered EU agreement on migration during the...
Swiss Franc and Yen Ended as Strongest, Worst of Trade War Yet to Come
The Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen ended last week as the strongest major currencies. Sentiments were hurt deeply by worries on global trade war. Over week, DOW lost -2.03%, S&P 500 lost -0.89%, DAX was down -3.31%, CAC dropped -2.08%, Nikkei lowered by -1.47%. China's Shanghai composite suffered most...
Dollar Surged on Hawkish Fed, Trade War Threat Ignored
Dollar surged broadly last week as Fed policymakers finally made up their mind on hiking a total of four times this year, as reflected in the new projections. The greenback was also helped by ECB monetary policy decision, with traders disappointed on the rate path. The headlines were then...
Markets to Look Through G7 to Fed Hike and ECB Judgement Day
While trade tension between the US and its allies dominated the headlines last week, Euro emerged as the strongest major currency. Receding Eurozone internal political risks was a key factor. German 10 year bund yield hit as high as 0.52, comparing to 0.186 low just two weeks ago, before...
A Look at Why Dollar Failed to Surge on Strong US Job Numbers
It was a roller coaster week with political turmoil in Italy dominated the first half of the week. The formation of the populist Italian government after acceptance by President Sergio Mattarella marked the end of the episode. Trade war then took over as US President Donald Trump decided to...
Yen Surged Again as Italy, Protectionism, Geopolitics and Central Bank Expectations Weighed on Yields
Yen ended as the strongest one last week followed by Swiss Franc. Meanwhile Sterling was the weakest one, followed by Euro, Canadian and then US Dollar. A number of factors were behind such development and they're all inter-related. The most direct one is decline in major European and US...
USD Index Futures Recorded Net Length, First Time since March
As we expected, USD Index futures turned to NET LENGTH of 18 contracts in the week ended May 15. This was driven by increasing pessimism over other major currencies. According to CFTC's Commitments of Traders report, reduction in speculative long positions greatly surpassed that of short for EUR futures,...
Dollar Rally Limited by a Number of Political Factors, Swiss Franc Ended as Strongest
Swiss Franc ended last week as the strongest one, very much thanks to the selloff in EUR/CHF. Uncertainty over the EU policy of the new Italian government sent Euro broadly lower, which ended as the weakest. Despite surge in 10 year yield to 7-year high, Dollar could only extend...
Traders Getting More Bearish on AUD and Less Bullish on GBP
We initiate coverage on speculators' activities on major FX futures. According to CFTC's Commitments of Traders, speculators were bearish (NET SHORT) on CHF, JPY, AUD and CAD in the week ended May 8. Meanwhile, they remained bullish (NET LENGTH) over EUR, GBP and NZD. However, the positive sentiment has...
Dollar Turned into Consolidation Phase, Sterling Survived BoE but Vulnerable to Job Data
Canadian Dollar surged broadly last week following the rally in oil prices. Weaker than expected employment capped the Loonie's gain, but it ended as the strongest still. Sterling survived BoE super Thursday and ended up against all but Canadian. That's a clear indication that markets didn't see BoE announcements...
Yen Beat Dollar as the Strongest in Yields Driven Forex Markets
Dollar ended last week broadly higher except versus the Japanese Yen. While economic data from the US were generally disappointing, they were not bad enough to alter Fed's path of three rate hikes this year. Just that, the data didn't add to the chance of the fourth hike in...
Dollar and Yield Reached Critical Junctures after Strong Rally, Determining Events ahead
Dollar was given a powerful boost last week on a couple of factors. Firstly, 10 year yield extended recent bull run and hit 3% level for the first time since 2014. Secondly, Euro was sold off steeply after the confusing messages from ECB President Mario Draghi during the post...
Dollar Dominated the Markets as Treasury Yields Could be Reversing Multi-Decade Down Trend
Dollar ended broadly higher last week as boosted by surge in treasury yields. 10 year yield finally completed its consolidation that started back in February, and rose through 2.943 high to close strongly at 2.951. That came with the background that recent comments from Fed officials affirmed its gradual...
Yen and Franc Ended as the Weakest Ones as Risk Aversion Temporarily Eased, Reaction to Syria Strikes Watched
Easing risk aversion was the main theme last week as Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc ended as the weakest two. It's not the kind that investors were in euphoria. But nonetheless, major stock indices around the world ended up higher. Dollar ended as the third weakest despite markets firming...
Dollar Mixed as Markets Pared Back Expectations of Fed Hikes Slightly, after NFP and on Trade War
US-China trade war was the dominant theme in the financial markets last week. US started by announcing the list of 1300 product lines to be tariffed under Section 301 actions. China quickly responded by announcing 25% retaliation tariffs to US imports, matching the size of USD 50b product values....
Global Stock Market Crashed, Dollar Tumbled after Episode 1 of US-China Trade War
Global stock markets suffered steep selloff last week as US President Donald Trump has finally declare the start of trade war with China. Dollar was under broad based pressure with the development, but it was only the second weakest one. Australian Dollar suffered most for it's close trade link...