RBNZ Preview – Policymakers to Sound Less Dovish with Yields and NZD Strengthened
We expect the RBNZ to deliver a less dovish message in the upcoming meeting. Economic data released since the November meeting have been encouraging, with the price level and the job market on track to reach the target. These should lead to upgrades in the economic projections. Financial conditions...
Aussie Surged With Industrial Metal Prices, More Upside in Favor
Stocks markets took a breather last week while focus turned to surging industrial metal prices and treasury yields. Strength in metals was seen more about supply shortage than recovery in demand. That somewhat also reinforced reflation trades. US 10-year yield was back above 1.3%, German 10-year bund yield at...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Platinum Rallied to 6-Year High on Strong Demand Expectations
Precious metals were mixed last week. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended February 16, gold futures’ NET LENGTH slumped -16 438 contracts to 234 969 while silver futures’ NET LENGTH added +281 contracts to 49 824. For PGMs, NET LENGTH of Nymex platinum...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Net Short Gained Slightly as Risk Appetite Improved
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 16, NET SHORT of USD Index futures dropped -412 contracts to 14 287. Speculative long positions slipped -97 contracts while shorts were up +315 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures dropped -216...
Australian Dollar Skyrockets on Surging Metal, Markets Cheer PMIs
Australian Dollar overtakes Sterling as the strongest one for the week, as supported by return of risk-mode markets. In particular, industrial metal is having strong rally with copper trading up 2% at the time of writing. Sterling shrugs off poor retail sales but was supported by PMI and upbeat...
Sterling Stays Strong as Focus Turns to Retail Sales and PMIs
Sterling continues to trade as the strongest one for the week, as focus turns to UK retail sales and PMIs. Upside surprises there could give the Pound another lift. Australian Dollar is keeping itself close as second strongest for now. On the other hand, Yen and Swiss France are...
Extreme Weather in the US could Further Dampen Output and Inventory
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks slumped -15.05 mmb to 1298.58 mmb in the week ended February 12. Crude oil inventory sank -7.26 mmb (consensus: -2.43 mmb) to 461.76 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 3 out...
Dollar Dives after Jobless Claims, Sterling Powers Up
Dollar is back under some selling pressure, starting in European session, and intensifies after poor job data. Weakness in the greenback is dragging down Canadian Dollar as the second worst performing, while Yen follows as third. Sterling is once again leading the way higher, followed by Aussie and Kiwi....
Aussie Mildly Higher after Job Data, Oil Extends Up Trend
Australian Dollar strengthens mildly in Asian session today, as supported by another set of solid job data. But overall, trading in the forex markets is subdued. Dollar is taking a breather as FOMC minutes provided no special inspirations. The greenback is, nonetheless, staying as the strongest one for the...
Fed Cautiously Optimistic about Recovery with Fiscal Support. USD Upside Limited as Accommodative Policy Remains in Place
The FOMC minutes for the January meeting revealed that policymakers were cautiously optimistic over the economic outlook. Meanwhile, it also dampened hopes of tapering. US dollar's rebound has been driven by more upbeat economic data and rising yields. However, the Fed's pledge to maintain an ultra accommodative policy should...
Dollar Rebounds Further on Strong Retail Sales, Euro and Swiss Franc Suffer
Dollar's rebound gains much momentum in early US session with a little help from much stronger than expected retail sales data. Canadian Dollar is following as second strongest for today, riding on rally resumption in oil prices. On the other hand, Euro is suffering some steep selling together with...
Dollar Firm after 10-yr Yield Breached 1.3, But Near Term Resistance Still Intact
The strong rally in US treasury yield overnight pushed Dollar notably higher. The greenback is indeed the second strongest one for the week, just next to Sterling. Canadian Dollar is following closely with support by resilience in oil prices. ON the other hand, overall risk-on sentiment is keeping Yen...
Dollar Strikes Back on Surging Yields, Gold Tumbles
Dollar is striking back today with some help from surging US yields. At the time of writing, 10-year yield is trading above 1.25 handle. Additionally, much stronger than expected manufacturing is support the greenback too. While European stocks are treading water, US futures point to higher open. Yen is...
Awaiting Overdue Rebound in USDCNY
Strengthening against US dollar for 8 consecutive months, Renminbi (Chinese yuan) has accumulated gains of about 10% since June 2020. We believe the rally is overextended as China's economic recovery has shown signs of losing steam while yield differential between US and China has narrowed over the past few...
Euro Weak With Dollar in as Stock Surge Further, Looks into German ZEW
Overall developments in the markets are unchanged as strong risk-on sentiments continue. Yen is currently the worst performer by a mile. Dollar, Euro and Swiss Franc are following behind. Sterling continue to stay strong together with commodity currencies. A focus today is on whether Germany ZEW economic sentiment and...
Sterling Surges as Johnson Promises Lockdown Exit Roadmap, Strong Risk-On Sentiment Continues
Strong risk-on sentiments continue today even though US and China are on holiday. Dollar and Yen are both suffering heavy selling pressure, more so the latter. Sterling is leading the way up as Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised to detail his roadmap for lockdown exit on February 22. Canadian...
Yen Accelerates Downward as Strong GDP Lifts Nikkei Above 30k
Yen and Dollar are under selling pressure today on strong risk-on markets. Nikkei closed above 30k handle for the first time in 30 years, as lifted by stronger than expected GDP data. Swiss Franc is following closely as third weakest. Sterling, is currently the best performer, on optimism of...
Dollar Tumbled on Risk-On Sentiments Again, Ignored Yield Strength
Dollar ended as the worst performing one, reversing much of prior week's rebound. Risk-on sentiments appeared to be leading the greenback lower again, and boosted Australian Dollar as the strongest one. But the development in other major currencies were less clear.
The strength in stocks and oil were not much...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – GBP Rallied for 5th Consecutive Week While Trading in USD Future Light
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 9, NET SHORT of USD Index futures dropped -955 contracts to 13 875. Trading in the futures was light with speculative long and short positions down -41 contracts and -996 contracts, respectively. Concerning European currencies,...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Platinum Catches Up with Precious Metals’ Rally
Crude oil price strengthened for the second consecutive week but the gain was last than the prior week. We expect to see more profit-taking in the coming weeks. Concerning the precious metal complex, silver retreated after rallying to the 8-year high in the prior week. The rally in precious...