Dollar Surges on Strong Durable Goods Orders, Gold Tumbles
Dollar surges broadly in early US session in response to much better than expected durable goods order data. Yet, it's actually still held well below near term resistance level to confirm bottoming. Gold's decline is a positive sign for the greenback and we'll see if there is following buying....
Factors Supporting Gold Price Remain as ETFs Add Holdings and Low Yields Persist
Gold price has corrected about -7% over the past weeks, after making a record high of US$ 2060/oz earlier in the month. While further weakness appears likely, we remain bullish on the yellow metal as factors driving its price higher, e.g. low yields, expansionary monetary policy, etc, remain intact....
Range Trading Continues With Eyes on Gold, Oil and Yields
The forex markets continue to stay in rather tight range today, shrugging off strong movements in the stock markets. Yen is generally soft but there is no sign of breakout yet. Similarly, Dollar is also struggling to find a clear direction, staying as the second weakest for the week...
Euro Rises on German Data, Yen Tumbles Broadly
European majors, as well as stock indices, are boosted by better than expected Germany business sentiments, as well as small than expected Q2 GDP contraction. There were talks that investors welcomed the US-China trade phone calls. But judging from the decline in China and Hong Kong stocks, that might...
Fiscal Stalemate to Lead to More Fed Stimulus and Further USD Weakness
We expect US dollar's downtrend to resume downtrend in coming months after consolidation. Fiscal stalemate suggests that the Fed would shoulder more burdens in delivering stimulus. This should lead yields to decline further, supporting weakness in the greenback.
Stalled Hopes on Fiscal Stimulus
Failure to strike a deal on a new...
S&P 500 Hit Record, Forex Markets Yawn in Range
Coronavirus vaccine optimism sent US stocks to record high overnight but the positive sentiments are not carried forward to Asia. The forex markets are also treading water, with major pairs and crosses stuck inside last week's range. US and Canadian Dollars are the relatively weaker ones while European majors...
Vaccine Hopes Boost Sentiments, Dollar and Yen Down
Global markets surge broadly today on more optimism on coronavirus treatment. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are both set to extend recent record runs. Yen and Dollar are back under some selling pressure, but New Zealand Dollar is not far away. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is currently the...
Kiwi Lower as Lockdown Extends, Dollar Mixed Awaiting Jackson Hole
Canadian and Australian Dollar trade generally higher today, following mild strength in Asian stocks. But New Zealand Dollar diverges from them as the country extends lockdown of Auckland until Sunday night. Following Kiwi, Swiss Franc and Yen are the next weakest in risk-on markets. Dollar is mixed and could...
Euro Tumbled as Optimistic Investors Reassess Outlook, Turning Around?
Euro ended as the worst performing one last week as investors could have started to reassess the economic outlook. As ECB meeting accounts pointed out, recent positive market developments were "not fully backed by economic data". Indeed, they might be based on "overly optimistic expectations" about the Next Generation...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Crude Oil and Gold Continued to Drop
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 18, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -10 240 contracts to 510 695 for the week. Speculative long position fell -17 242 contracts, while dropped -7 002. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for gasoline...
CFTC Commitments of Traders- Trades Trimmed on EUR while Sentiment on CAD Remained Weak
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 18, NET SHORT for USD Index futures slipped -667 to 7 515 contracts. Speculative long positions added +337 contracts and short positions were down -330 contracts. It is possible for further decline in NET SHORT...
Euro and Sterling Plummets on Brexit Deadlock, Yen Surges
European majors tumble broadly today as UK and EU reminded us that Brexit negotiation remained in deadlock. Additionally, some PMI data from Eurozone suggested that momentum of recovery was quickly fading, in particular in the services sector. Yen is rising broadly today as stock markets turn into risk-off mode....
Dollar Weakens Again as Rebound Falters, PMIs Watched Today
Dollar is back under pressure as rebound attempt faltered quickly again. Nevertheless, New Zealand Dollar remains the worst one. Canadian Dollar is currently the strongest one in Asian session, lifted as crude oil rebounded quickly after a spike lower overnight. As for the week, Sterling and Yen are currently...
Sentiments Turn Cautious after ECB and Fed Minutes, Aussie and Kiwi Tumble
Global financial markets seemed to have turned into risk-off mode today, after both Fed and ECB sounded very cautious regarding economic outlook in their minutes. Swiss Franc extended recent volatility trading and gains broadly, followed by Sterling and Yen. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar completed this week's...
PBOC’s Restraint Monetary Policy will Continue to Support CNY vs USD. US-China Tensions as Major Downside Risk
Renminbi (a.k.a. RMB, CNY) has strengthened against US dollar over the past 3 weeks. While the broad-based USD weakness is the key reason, PBOC's neutral policy action over the past months has also led to renminbi's appreciation. We expect the phenomenon would persist, supporting renminbi, in coming months.
PBOC announced...
FOMC Minutes Revealed Rigorous Debate over Alternative Monetary Policy Tools
The FOMC minutes for the July meeting revealed that the members remained concerned about the outlook of economic recovery. They had discussed a number of tools for further easing, including forward guidance, asset purchases, and yield curve targets. Meanwhile, the members again stressed that fiscal support is particularly important...
Dollar Rebounds but Reversal Not Warranted Yet, Gold and Stocks Fall
Dollar staged a strong rebound overnight, reversing all of prior day's losses. The uninspiring FOMC minutes were a lift in a way that it provided no dovish elements for further selloff. Yet, the greenback is kept well below near term resistance levels against all major currencies. It also remains...
US Cushing Oil Stock Fell for First Time in Almost 2 Months. Oil Prices Dropped on Weaker Demand Prospect
Crude oil prices weakened despite decline in US inventory levels. At the video conference held by the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, oil producers warned that “the pace of recovery appeared to be slower than anticipated. Yet, they dismissed increasing output cut from the current deal. The report from...
Focus Turned to Swiss Franc Selloff While Dollar Stabilizes Mildly
Selling focus turns from Dollar to Swiss Franc today, which also drags down Sterling, and to a lesser extent Euro. Dollar stabilized a little bit but there is apparent strength for recovery yet. In particular, commodity currencies are generally stronger while Canadian Dollar shrugs off weaker than expected inflation...
Dollar Stays Pressured ahead of FOMC Minutes, Gold Retreats
Dollar remains generally pressured today even though selling momentum seems to be easing a little bit. A focus will be on FOMC minutes which is unlikely to provide anything about the next policy move. Instead, investors would be more eager to know how Fed would shape the results of...