ECB Upbeat about Recovery, Resorted to Verbal Warning of Strong Euro
ECB left all the monetary policy measures unchanged in September. The staff upgraded the near-term growth outlook, as well as core inflation forecasts for 2021 and 2022, suggesting the central bank's optimism over the recovery. Policymakers continued to stress that risks to growth remain skewed to the downside and...
Crude Oil Prices Fell as US Inventory Gained for the First in 7 Weeks, While OPEC+ Output Produced More than Quota
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained -3.42 mmb to 1124.86 mmb in the week ended September 4. Crude oil inventory gained +2.03 mmb (consensus: -1.34 mmb) to 500.43 mmb. Stockpile rose in 4 out...
Euro Surges as ECB Gives No Red Light to Appreciation
Euro jumps notably as ECB insist that it doesn't target the exchange rate, despite recent appreciation, suggesting that they're still comfortable with the current level. The common currency also takes Swiss Franc higher with it. On the other hand, Sterling is left behind as European majors. The Pound suffers...
Euro Awaits ECB for Next Move, Sterling Weakness Persists
Sterling remains the weakest one for the week, without a doubt in the otherwise mixed forex markets. Overall risk sentiments stabilized with the overnight rebound in US stocks. Dollar has pared back much of this week's gains together with Yen. Euro is currently the stronger one for today, as...
BOC Left Policy Rate and QE Unchanged, Pledged to Calibrate Measures when Needed
BOC announced to leave the policy rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25% and maintain the pace of asset purchases at CAD 5B/week of Canadian government bonds. While acknowledging that economic activities have rebounded more than expected since the July meeting, the members remained cautious about the outlook,...
Pound Selloff Continues, Risk Sentiments Stabilized
The Pound's selloff continues today as the UK government's so called internal market bill draws wide criticism, from EU to Scotland and Wales. Traders continue to off-load Sterling on no-deal Brexit risks. European markets, though, somewhat stabilized and recovered from yesterday's selloff. US stocks futures also point to recovery...
Subdued Core CPI and Contraction in Imports Suggest It Takes Time to Revive China’s Domestic Demand
Headline CPI moderated to +2.4% y/y in August, from +2.7% a month ago. High base and softened growth in food inflation was the key reason for the slowdown. Food price rose +11.2% y/y, decelerated from +13.2% in July. This was mainly driven by the sharp moderation of pork inflation...
Euro Vulnerable Against Dollar and Yen as Risk Aversion Intensifies
Yen remains generally firm as Asian session as deep risk aversion carries forward from US markets. Concerns over coronavirus vaccine development was a major factor weighing on sentiments. Dollar turns softer, digesting yesterday's gains, but remains generally firm. Sterling continues to trade as the weakest one and selloff is...
Risk Aversion Comes Back on Tech Rout, No-Deal Brexit
Risk aversion is back in the markets today. On the one hand, US stocks are set to open sharply lower as they return from holiday. Tech rout is continuing with NASAQ futures down more than -3% at the time of writing. On the other hand, no-deal Brexit worries intensify...
Dollar Firm But No Breakthrough Yet, Except Versus Swiss Franc
Sterling remains generally weaker today, on Brexit concerns. But Swiss Franc is apparently worse for now, dropping through a near term support level against the greenback. On the other hand, Yen and Dollar stay firm in mixed Asian markets. Yen is not too troubled by data that showed deeper...
Pound Decline Accelerates on Brexit Risks, Yen and Dollar Firmer
Sterling's decline gathers some momentum on resurfacing no-deal Brexit risk. The Pound is currently followed by New Zealand Dollar as the second weakest. Canadian Dollar is the third worst performing so far, follow oil price lower. On the other hand, Yen and Dollar and trading firmer today, despite rebound...
Gold Pressured by Better Data, Stronger USD and Yields
Gold price slashed more than 1.8% last week. Reasons for the selloff include better-than-expected US employment report, recovery in US dollar and rebound in Treasury yields. Gold's correction from the peak has lasted for a month with over 6% of loss. More optimistic news about economic recovery and the...
Sterling Mildly Lower on Brexit, Dollar Eyes ECB For Next Move
Markets are rather quiet in Asian session today and trading could remain subdued ahead with US and Canada on holiday. Sterling is generally lower on Brexit news but losses are so far limited. Canadian Dollar is dragged down slightly by oil prices but it has been very resilient so...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders to Bet Lower Crude Oil Prices on Cloudy Demand Outlook
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 1, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined further, by -9 784 contracts to, 490 915 for the week. Speculative long position fell -6 429 contracts, but shorts rose +3 355 contracts. NET Length is expected...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Short of USD Index Futures Shrank as the Greenback Recovered to One-Week High
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 1, NET SHORT for USD Index futures dropped - 1 027 to 6 746 contracts. Speculative long positions added +766 contracts and short positions slipped -261 contracts. NET SHORT could shrink further in the coming...
Dollar Down Trend, Stocks Up Trend Still Intact after Roller-Coaster Ride
Markets experienced a roller-coaster ride in the first week of September. S&P 500 and NASDAQ extended record runs and it looked like DOW was on the way for a catch-up. Then technology stocks led a steep selloff towards the end of the week and pulled all indices sharply lower....
Dollar Rises after NFP, Gold Breaks Trend Line Support
Dollar rises against European majors an Yen as headline non-farm payrolls number came in not far from expectation. Encouragingly, unemployment rate dropped notably while participation rate also rose. Wage growth also some what picked up. DOW future also point to a mildly higher open. The greenback is set to...
Dollar to End Week as Strongest, Subject to NFP Reactions
Asian markets are generally in red following the steep corrective selloff in the US overnight. The forex markets are relatively steady though, with Dollar and Yen trading with a firm tone. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are the weakest ones, followed by Sterling. Over the week, Dollar is set...
ECB Preview – Warning about Euro Strength with No Action Needed
ECB is expected to maintain the monetary policy measures in September. The focuses on the meeting include policymakers’ response to the recent strength in euro, the updated economic projections and ECB’s strategy review after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s announcement at the Jackson Hole symposium. While euro’s appreciation over the...
Dollar Supported as Jobless Claims Dropped to 881k, Swiss Franc Rebounds
Dollar's rebound continues in early US session as positive response to better than expected jobless claims data. For the moment, Swiss Franc is the second strongest, followed by Euro, and both surges against the weak Sterling. Commodity currencies follow as the next weakest, as gold and oil soften. Yen...